提振信心  释放消费新活力

未来一个时期，我国国内市场主导国民经济循环的特征会更加明显，努力扩大居民消费、充分释放内需潜力，成为形成强大国内市场、发挥我国超大规模市场优势的重要方面。

Though the recent decline in deposit rates is seen as part of the country's efforts to energize consumption, economists have divided thoughts on how far the move will push consumption. Going forward, experts are calling for more forceful and prompt measures to boost consumer confidence.

尽管最近存款利率的下调被视为国家刺激消费努力的一部分，但经济学家对此举将在多大程度上推动消费存在分歧。展望未来，专家们呼吁采取更有力、更及时的措施来提振消费者信心。

Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, said that the current high level of deposits and weak household sector loans are primarily due to a decline in household risk appetites and their tendency toward precautionary savings against uncertainties.

光大证券首席宏观经济学家高瑞东表示，目前的高存款水平和家庭部门贷款疲软主要是由于家庭风险偏好下降以及倾向于预防性储蓄以应对不确定性。

"Ultimately, the restoration of consumer confidence can only rely on improvements in employment and income expectations," he said.

他说：“最终，消费者信心的恢复只能依赖于就业和收入预期的改善。”

A research report issued by GF Securities on May 28 showed that the tendency of households to keep their money in saving accounts instead of spending it is still surging. The value of outstanding household bank wealth reached 26.6 trillion yuan as of May 26, pointing to an increase of 400 billion yuan compared to April 30. Such value had already seen a significant increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in April.

广发证券5月28日发布的一份研究报告显示，家庭部门将钱存在储蓄账户而非消费的趋势仍在上升。截至5月26日，银行理财存续规模达26.6万亿元，较4月30日增长4000亿元。4月份，银行理财存续规模曾大幅增长1.2万亿元。

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said it will be challenging to push for notable consumption momentum and more policy support is needed.

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，推动消费将是一项挑战，需要更多的政策支持。

"Structurally, consumption growth is unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. We expect the potential growth for private consumption will be 4.8 percent for the year 2024, which is slightly lower than pre-COVID-19 trend," he said, adding that the current uncertainty in employment is part of the reason behind the bumpy recovery in consumption.

他说：“从结构上看，消费增长不太可能恢复到新冠疫情之前的水平。预计2024年民间消费的潜在增长率为4.8%，略低于新冠疫情前的趋势。”他补充说，目前就业的不确定性是消费复苏不稳定的原因之一。

More direct and prompt policy support is therefore required to fuel the consumption market and more effectively boost this year's growth, experts said. Gao suggested that a large-scale government issuance of consumer vouchers could have a more direct impact on the retail spending than a lower deposit rate.

因此，专家们表示，需要更直接、更及时的政策支持来刺激消费市场，更有效地促进今年的经济增长。高瑞东建议，相较于降低存款利率，政府大规模发行消费券可能会对零售业消费产生更直接的影响。

"Since the employment situation among young people remains severe and the willingness of spending among households remains unstable, the consumption sector may see an uneven recovery this year," he said. "We believe that a large-scale issuance of consumption vouchers is feasible to quickly drive growth."

他说：“由于青年群体就业形势严峻，居民消费意愿尚未企稳，今年消费领域的恢复可能出现分化。我们认为，大规模发放消费券对于快速推动经济增长是可行的。”

He suggested that consumption vouchers worth 300 billion yuan be distributed to households.

他建议向家庭发放价值3000亿元的消费券。

"Such an amount of vouchers will generate an additional 1 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing to a 0.62 percentage point increase in GDP growth," Gao said.

他说：“若发放3000亿消费券，可撬动1万亿消费增量，拉动GDP增长0.62个百分点。”

He said that the stimulus effect of issuing consumption vouchers can be significantly higher in underdeveloped regions than in developed regions. In addition, the issuance of these coupons can lean more heavily toward low-income and unemployed groups, who can use the coupons for daily essentials in retail and living.

他说，欠发达地区发放消费券的刺激效果明显高于发达地区。此外，这些消费券的发行可以更多地向低收入和失业群体倾斜，他们可以使用这些消费券购买零售品和生活必需品。

Targeted consumption vouchers can be distributed in sectors like dining, accommodations, tourism and autos, catering to the specific consumption needs of different groups, Gao added.

他补充说，消费券可以按类别在餐饮、住宿、旅游和汽车等领域发放，以满足不同群体的特定消费需求。