美媒：美国商业地产危机四伏 或致新一轮银行破产潮

据美国彭博新闻社和商业内幕网综合报道，全球债券巨头品浩（Pimco）最新预计，美国不良商业房地产贷款的“高度”集中将导致另一轮银行破产潮。迫在眉睫的美国商业房地产贷款危机让分析师和市场观察人士忧心忡忡，预计到明年年底将有2.1 万亿美元的债务到期。

Pacific Investment Management Co. expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books.

债券巨头品浩预计，由于不良商业房地产贷款“高度”集中，美国将有更多区域性银行倒闭。

“The real wave of distress is just starting” for lenders to everything from malls to offices, John Murray, Pimco’s head of global private commercial real estate team, said in an interview.

品浩全球私人商业房地产团队负责人约翰·穆雷在接受采访时表示，对于商场写字楼等商业房地产的贷款方来说，“真正的困境浪潮才刚刚开始”。

Uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates has exacerbated challenges faced by the CRE sector, where high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered defaults, leaving lenders stuck with assets that are tough to sell.

美联储降息的不确定性加剧了商业房地产（CRE）行业面临的挑战，高借贷成本压低了估值并引发了违约，导致作为贷方的区域性银行被困在难以出售的资产上。

“The combination of rising rates plus recessionary pressures creates real challenges for commercial real estate, from both a capital markets and fundamentals perspective,” Murray said.

穆雷表示：“从资本市场和基本面角度来看，利率上升结合衰退压力，给商业房地产带来了真正的挑战。”

Things are not looking up for the US office sector, with loan performance set to slump even further in 2025, Fitch Ratings said. After the market significantly underperformed Fitch's year-to-date expectations in May, the rating agency has revised its office delinquency forecast to 8.4% and 11% through this and next year. That's up from projections of 8.1% and 9.9%, respectively.

据商业内幕网近日报道，惠誉评级表示，美国写字楼市场前景不容乐观，2025 年贷款表现将进一步下滑。在 5 月份市场表现明显低于惠誉对今年迄今业绩的预期后，该评级机构已将今年和明年的写字楼贷款拖欠率预测分别上调至 8.4% 和 11%。这一数字高于此前预测的 8.1% 和 9.9%。

Driving the fallout are still-elevated interest rates, cooling economic growth, and a stricter lending environment, Fitch wrote on Friday. That's all happening against a broad decline in office demand, as hybrid or fully remote work has become an entrenched norm.

惠誉7日表示，造成这一影响的因素包括利率居高不下、经济增长放缓以及贷款环境趋紧。这一切都发生在办公需求普遍下降的情况下，因为混合或完全远程工作已成为一种根深蒂固的常态。

"The recovery of the office sector will be slower and more drawn out during this cycle than following the global financial crisis and will lead to permanent impairments in property values, weaker performance, and higher loan losses," Fitch wrote.

惠誉称：“与2008年全球金融危机之后相比，此轮周期中写字楼行业的复苏将更加缓慢、耗时，并将导致美国房地产价值永久性受损、业绩表现疲软以及贷款损失增加。”

A looming commercial real estate loan crash has been a persistent worry among analysts and market observers, with $2.1 trillion in debt expected to mature by the end of next year.

分析师和市场观察人士对迫在眉睫的美国商业房地产贷款崩盘一直感到担忧，预计到明年年底将有2.1 万亿美元的债务到期。