BBC在线收听下载:前美国官员谈论以色列同哈马斯的走向

And from now on Israel's response; I'm joined by Robert Amin, he is a former US State Department official. He's now the council on foreign relations. Eh, Robert, thank you very much for coming in. Clearly, today Israel focused on the funeral. But even today is the Cabinet gathering to talk about what the military response should be. What do you think Israel's gonna do in response to this?
从现在开始报道以色列的应对，罗伯特•安民也加入报道，他曾是美国国务院官员，现在就职于外交关系理事会。罗伯特，感谢今天做客。明确地说，以色列今天关注的是葬礼。但内阁会议今天也将讨论采取什么样的军事应对措施，你怎么看待的呢？你认为以色列准备采取什么样的应对呢？

Well, Israel is divided among itself about what to do. There seem to be three basic options that they are considering, you know. One is going into the West Bank, trying to uproot Hamas even further than they have already. The second is to going into Gaza, and trying to uproot Hamas there. And the third, obviously, is searching for the perpetrators of the kidnapping. They'll definitely go for the third option. The question is what of the other two, will they choose …
以色列内部就怎么做产生了分歧，他们目前似乎考虑了三个基本的选择。一个是进入西岸，努力比以往更深入地铲除哈马斯；第二个是进入加沙，努力铲除那里的哈马斯；第三个显然是寻找实施绑架的犯罪者。他们当然要选择第三个办法，问题是另外两个呢？

And if they do go into Gaza, what are you talking about? Are we talking about air strikes against the militants or militant positions in Gaza, or would you think it could actually be a significant ground operation for example?
如果他们确实进入加沙，你会怎么看待？我们在谈论对加沙的武装分子或武装据点进行空袭，你认为这确实会成为意义重大的地面行动吗？

That's to debate; I mean, well, the real question is what is, what is the objective, what are they going to try to do. Uh, because if they push too hard, and let's say, bring about Hamas' demise, there is even more radical forces in Gaza, who would lead to greater chaos, so is that they wanna do that. They'd had a certain understand with the Hamas, so they are gonna wanna punish Hamas and punish them quite hard; uh, which I think it means it probably weren't going on the ground, although there are people arguing for it. So I think they will seek significant air strikes against the Hamas infrastructure within Gaza for sure.
这个问题有待争论，我认为真正的问题是打击目标是什么，他们准备怎么办。因为如果他们打击力度太大，比如说歼灭哈马斯，但是加沙有更多极端力量，那样会导致更大的乱局。他们和哈马斯比较了解，所以他们会惩罚哈马斯，重重的惩罚，我认为这意味不会发生地面行动，尽管有些人要求这样做。所以我认为他们当然会对哈马斯的基础设施进行重大的空袭。

Ok, what of the indications that for Mahmoud Abbas this might mean that he has to split with Hamas if he doesn't want to feel the ferocity of the Israeli fire power against him too by extension?
那么，这就穆罕默德•哈马斯来说意味着什么呢？如果他不想经受以色列猛烈的炮火打击，是否会和哈马斯决裂呢？

Well, I don't think that's where he's heading. I mean right now, the Palestinian security forces have been cooperating with the Israelis on the West Bank trying to find the perpetrators, trying to keep the security of the West Bank. But this has produced a backlash among the Palestinian people. They are not happy. That's not so much as they are so happy about the kidnapping, but they don't like the fact that the Palestinians are cooperating with the Israelis while Palestinians were getting killed by Israelis searching for the perpetrators of this crime. Uh, so, I think at this point, Abbas, Mahmoud Abbas has very difficult choices. To break with the Hamas right now, I think completely, would be unpopular because unity is popular amongst all Palestinians regardless of their political strike. Even though they may side with one side or the other, what they want more than anything is for the Palestinian factions to come together for the West Bank and Gaza to be reunified for Palestine to be one political entity, and not to have this infighting.
我认为他不会这么做，我是说，巴勒斯坦安全部队一直在西岸和以色列人一道努力寻找犯罪者，努力确保西岸的安全。但这导致巴勒斯坦人民反对，他们很不高兴。并不是说他们对绑架感到高兴，而是他们不喜欢这样的事实，即巴勒斯坦和以色列人合作，而巴勒斯坦人却被寻找犯罪者的以色列人杀害。所以我认为在这一点上，穆罕默德•哈马斯面临艰难的选择。我认为现在和哈马斯决裂将不得人心，因为不管其政治态度如何，全体巴勒斯坦人都向往团结。尽管他们可能会支持这一方或另一方，但他们更希望看到的是巴勒斯坦各派别走到一起来，重新统一西岸和加沙，将巴勒斯坦成为一个政治体，不再内战。

OK, Robert. So how does it play out, I mean it's obviously the short-term retaliation and retribution for what happened to these teenagers, but there's bound to be longer-term fallouts from this, isn't it?
好吧，罗伯特，结果会怎样呢？我是说显然这是因为这些少年的遭遇导致的短期报复和复仇事件，但肯定会导致长期的不好影响吧？

Absolutely. I think the first casualty of this in a longer term is going to be the national unity government that Mahmoud Abbas is overseeing. That government came together in order to form and hold elections for Palestinian institutions. I think it grew now much further from the elections than that, there were beforehand. And if we don't have elections that means there is no real legitimacy for the leadership, it means that the ongoing political stagnation that's taking place in Palestinian institutions will continue. There is no prospect of a renewed peace process. I think the only way out potentially for Mahmoud Abbas in this is for him not to amuse the Westerners, that he would will return to international fora in which he'll challenge Israel for greater legitimacy and recognition for a Palestinian statehood.
绝对的，我想长期的第一个后果是穆罕默德•哈马斯目前管理的全国统一政府，政府团结到一起是为了组建和选出巴勒斯坦政府机构。我想自从选举后政府就越发壮大，这都是预先准备好的。如果不举行选举，那么政府的领导就没有合法性，这意味着目前存在于巴勒斯坦政府机构的政治僵局还会继续下去，目前开始新的和平进程遥遥无期。我想穆罕默德•哈马斯目前唯一的出路不是取悦于西方人，而是回到国际论坛上去要求以色列，为巴勒斯坦国家地位获取更大的合法性和认可。

OK, wish we could there, have a more optimistic, one day I'll give you in there a more optimistic forum in this process 'cause there has not been very many as in recently. Robert Amin, thank you very much.
好吧，希望能有更乐观的结果，希望将来出现更令人乐观的论坛来推进这一进程，谢谢你罗伯特•安民。
Thank you.