巴菲特给投资者的一封警告信

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It’s just one line, but it hit the markets with a thud, billionaire Warren Buffett in an annual letter to shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway company wrote: “…the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009, and for that matter, probably will beyond”

“Warren Buffett’s typically been more optimistic than most. And he's always set a long-term projection. So to, you know, to hear him use the term, the terms that he used in describing the US economy, I certainly think it was eye-poppingly surprising. ”

Buffett’s forecast comes after the Federal Reserve Chairman struck a more optimistic note last week, saying there is a reasonable prospect the recession would end this year. That echos what president Obama’s budget director had to say about when the economy would bottom out.

“Somewhere towards the end of this year, or early next year.”

But some economists are growing more pessimistic. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com says there is now a one in four chance of a mild depression. There is no official definition of the depression. But Zandi defines it as double-digit unemployment for more than a year. But he says conditions would not sink to the depth of the Great Depression.

“So this is something different than the recession and economists are struggling with what to call it. And the word ‘depression’ is now creeping into the life, into the language. And I think it’s fair to say that we’re in a very severe recession. And the odds or risks of the depression are now rising and quite high. ”

But other economists predict a turnaround as early as this summer.

“We’ve had a lot of experience with recessions here and around the world. And they do come to an end. And deep ones tend to be followed by steep recoveries.”

Economists agree on this, that things will get worse before they get better. And more dismal news is expected Friday when the February unemployment report is released. It’s expected to reveal more than 600,000 jobs were lost last month.

For cnnMONEY.com, I’m Mary Snow.

vocabulary

1 thud: A dull sound, as that of a heavy object striking a solid surface.重击声

2 Berkshire Hathaway：A holding company for a multitude of businesses run by Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett.

3 shambles: A scene or condition of complete disorder or ruin混乱的局面

4 eye-popping: adj.Informal 【非正式用语】 Eliciting wonder or astonishment使人瞠目的

5 echo: to repeat what someone else has just said

6 bottom out: if a situation, price etc bottoms out, it stops getting worse or lower, usually before improving again走出低谷，触底反弹

7 mild depression: 轻度萧条

8 Great Depression: the economic crisis beginning with the stock market crash in 1929 and continuing through the 1930s大萧条

9 creep into: to gradually enter something and change it

10 turnaround: a complete change from a bad situation to a good one (经济等的)突然好转;突然转坏

11 dismal: if a situation or a place is dismal, it is so bad that it makes you feel very unhappy and hopeless令人沮丧的