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欧佩克减产无阻油价下跌

2009-03-25来源:和谐英语


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Oil price's falling in concert with stocks today, and this is despite the fact that OPEC is expected to significantly cut production in the Katar meets later on this week. What's going on? Let's talk to a trader, Anthony Grisanti, president, GRZ Energy. Here, with us now. From the floor, talk to us about why you are seeing this, why it seems like OPEC isn't even playing in?

Well, right now, today the focus is on the dollar. We're, we are about a key 1- 30 level. It's right above it. And really it's the strength of the dollar that has made oil weaker today. And, you know, going over to OPEC. You know, we pretty much know that they wanna cut Friday. But most of the traders feel down here that they are gonna have to cut a significant amount to have any impact on this market and to have these prices go higher. And by significant amount, I am talking about four to five million barrels a day. And I really don't see that happening. In fact, any kind of a cut we see, I expect, one to two million barrels. And I don't really see  that have a lot of influence on prices right now. And we are in a down market, we wanna sell rallies out here, it looks like it is gonna continue. We’ve had Chinese economy, their growth revised down for next year and for the rest of this year. Of course, the U.S. is the same way. So really it is all about demand and the dollar right now. And OPEC is kind of on the sidelines.

All right, let's say, OPEC does cut significantly four or five million barrels a day, what then happens to oil prices when you are dealing with slowing economies around the world, and as you said a stronger U.S. dollars than we haven’t seen in a long time.

Well, if they do cut the four or five million, you will see an initial spike, that's for sure, probably to about the 85-dollar level. But, I think, at that point, you are gonna turn around and look to see what the demand is, even at the lower levels that OPEC is producing. And I don't think we are gonna see that the demand may, be there, for even those numbers. So, I expect that the market will be weak or be very range-bound, say, between 70 and 90 dollars. But if they come in less than that cut, if they come in, say one to two, (Yeah. ) I think we'll take a shot towards 60 dollars at this point.

You know, finally, the shift that happened this fall, so interesting as you see oil move in concert with stocks, which is the opposite of what we saw all summer. How long does that hang on? How long is that the case? Will these two move together? And it's really the demand that played?

Well, I think, it's a matter really of... I don't think they are so moving in tandem together. I think it just, kind of... it seems that way. And that's the way it's working out. But really it is about the demand in oil and when that demand starts picking up, then you could see, you know, uh, the market. And actually the stock market could pick up at that point too, because a bigger demand means economy is doing a little bit better. But I don't think there is a link as we think they are. I think it's just a moving in tandem right now. It’s just a coincidence at this point.

Alright, Anthony, thanks, appreciate your expertise, thank you. Thank you.