经济危机已经离我们远去了吗?

音频下载[点击右键另存为]
经济危机给人们的生活带来了很浓重的阴影，而英国的经济有复苏的迹象，这让人们兴奋不已。

在经济大萧条的时候，哪怕是一点点的涨幅都会给大家增强不少信心。

No, you are not dreaming. Industry is looking better. House prices are on the up and we are spending more on our high streets. The recession may be far from over, but it is the economic tone changing.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research say it is. Our economy has been shrinking for the last 18 months. They say it’s started to grow again.

The reason for the recovery in April and to May may be simply that firms have stopped reducing stock levels. If consumption and investment are still falling, then we may see some stabilization followed by a further fall.

If those academics have got their sums right, GDP hit its lowest point in March this year, but increased by 0.2% in April, and by a further 0.1% in May. 

There are tiny increases based on projected figures in uNPRecedented conditions. But when the economy is this fragile, even the smallest signal could be telling.

These figures won’t be firmed up until the end of July but they could have a significant political impact.

A risk is clearly that double your shape, the double-dip recession which is exactly what we saw in the start of the 1990s, the last time we saw such a sharp fallback in manufacturing output.

Alistair Darling’s budget was lambasted as being wildly optimistic when it came to forecasting how our economy will grow. But according to this latest school of thought, the Chancellor’s numbers may yet add up.