猪没错，川普错了

As the largest exporter of pork and corn in the United States and the number two exporter of soybeans, Iowa’s economy is increasingly propped up by China.

艾奥瓦是美国最大的猪肉和玉米出口州，排名第二的大豆出口州，中国日益撑起了艾奥瓦的经济。

Thanks to rising meat consumption and a dearth of arable land, China has a growing appetite for American agricultural products. Fully one in four rows of Iowa soybeans end up in China, meaning that Iowa’s farmers are, essentially, being kept afloat by China’s middle class.

因为肉类消费增加且耕地稀缺，中国对美国农产品的胃口与日俱增。艾奥瓦州四分之一的大豆销往中国，意味着基本是中国的中产阶级养活了艾奥瓦的农民。

Given Iowa’s dependence on global trade, its economy offers a test case for understanding the hypothetical impacts of a trade war like the one President Donald Trump seems to want.

考虑到艾奥瓦依赖国际贸易，其经济成为评估总统唐纳德.特朗普想要开打的那种贸易战的可能影响的测试方法。

In early March, Trump announced tariffs on aluminum and steel, with China intended as a prime target. Then on March 22, following an investigation into Chinese trade practices and intellectual property theft, Trump proposed levying tariffs on more than $50-billion-worth of Chinese goods.

3月初，特朗普宣布对钢铝征收关税，中国是主要目标。3月22日，对中国贸易行为和知产盗窃进行调查后，特朗普提议对超过500亿美元的中国商品征收关税。

China began levying a 25 percent tariff on eight U.S. products, including pork, along with lesser tariffs on 120 other goods, in retaliation for the duties on aluminum and steel. Retaliatory tariffs for Trump’s intellectual property theft actions could follow.

而中国首先开始对包括猪肉在内的8种美国产品征收25%的关税，并对其他120种商品征收较低关税，报复美国对钢铝征税。但对特朗普因知识产权盗窃征收关税还会有报复性关税作为回应。

To understand the broader logic behind Trump’s belligerent stance on trade with China, it’s important to know that, in most sectors, the United States imports far more from China than it exports. “Putting America First,” Trump believes, means imposing tariffs to disrupt that trade deficit.

要弄清特朗普在贸易问题上与中国敌对的大逻辑，首先要知道在多数部门，美国从中国进口的都要比出口的多得多，明白这一点很重要。特朗普的想法是“美国优先”，这意味着要征收关税来削减贸易赤字。

As Trump tweeted on March 2, in a thinly veiled reference to China, “[W]hen we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore—we win big. It’s easy!” (The actual annual trade deficit with China in 2017 was $375 billion.)

特朗普3月2日发推文，显然说的是中国。“我们和某国逆差1000亿美元，他们得意了，不和他玩，我们就赚大了。就这么简单！”（2017年同中国的贸易赤字是3750亿美元。）

But in a few select sectors, America has a trade surplus with China. Two categories routinely top the list: aircrafts, and soybeans, grains, and seeds. Other agricultural products like pork are crucial exports as well. Because Iowa’s hog operations are located near the cornfields that are used for feed, it is actually cheaper to produce pork there than in many parts of China.

但在某些部门，美国对中国有贸易顺差，其中两种商品总是名列榜首：飞机与大豆、谷物和种子。猪肉等其他农业产品也是重要的出口商品。因为艾奥瓦的养猪业离猪饲料玉米近，在那里养猪比中国多数地方都便宜。

The country also buys a host of products that are not in great demand elsewhere, like pork intestines. A proposed 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork would mean a loss for farmers of up to $7 per hog, according to agricultural economist Chris Hurt.

中国还购买其他国家不太需要的产品，比方说猪下水。经济学家克里斯.赫特说，建议对美国猪肉征收25%的关税意味着每头猪损失达7美元。

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently predicted that in 2018, U.S. farm incomes will sink to a 12-year low. The economic unrest generated by such plummeting fortunes helped fuel support for both Trump and anti-China sentiment. (I met some enterprising farmers who were studying Chinese. Others had trouble discussing the country without resorting to racist epithets.)

最近，美国农业部预计2018年，美国农业收入创12年新低，财富大幅缩水导致的经济动荡让人们支持特朗普，也滋生了反华情绪。（我遇到几个学中文的农场主。还有人说到中国全是种族歧视。）

Even as China has restricted the operations of U.S. agribusiness companies, in 2013 the Chinese meat processor Shuanghui International Holdings successfully acquired the Virginia-based pork conglomerate Smithfield Foods, in what was then the largest takeover ever of a U.S. company by a Chinese counterpart.

虽然中国限制了美国农业公司的经营行为，2013年中国肉类加工企业双汇国际控股还是成功收购弗吉尼亚猪肉巨头史密斯菲尔德食品公司，当时是最大一起美国公司被中国同行并购的交易。

With assistance from agricultural companies, federal prosecutors have even brought several convictions for agricultural espionage cases involving China, in some instances relying on evidence collected using Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrants, which are intended to be reserved for national security threats. The FBI distributes pamphlets throughout the Midwest warning agricultural companies of threats from foreign rivals. The emphasis is firmly on China.

在农业公司协助下，联邦检察官甚至对涉华的几个农业间谍案提起诉讼，有些还用到《外国情报监控法案》授权收集的证据，这些授权旨在保护国家安全。联邦调查局在中西部发放小册子，警告农业公司外国竞争对手带来的威胁，重点就是中国。

But as the U.S. Trade Representative’s office prepares to finalize the list of tariffs, it’s worth remembering that there are a number of proposed solutions to Chinese technology transfer that do not so directly affect the livelihoods of millions of middle-class Americans.

但当美国贸易代表办公室准备敲定关税清单时，不要忘了还有一些对中国技术转让的解决方案，它们并不直接影响数百万中西部美国人的生计。

The Trump administration has pursued one of these, by using the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to reject bids by Chinese companies in strategic areas. Other untried solutions include blocking offending companies from access to U.S. banking companies.

特朗普政府已经通过外国投资委员会拒绝中国公司在战略领域的收购提议，还有其他一些办法，包括阻止问题公司使用美国银行。

Such restrictions need to be carefully considered. But the heartland, at least, would be better served by such solutions. Like it or not, Iowans’ fates are inextricably linked with those of Chinese buyers.

这些手段都要想三思而后行，但至少对中部地区更好些。不管你愿不愿意，艾奥瓦人的命运都和中国买家的命运紧密相连。