安倍深陷丑闻，众对手跃跃欲试

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is trying to shore up his popularity as falling poll ratings threaten to end his tenure, opening the way for a succession battle that could jeopardise his signature economic policy.

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)正试图重振人气。他的民调支持率不断下滑，这有可能断送他的任期，为一场可能危及其标志性经济政策的继任大战埋下伏笔。

Nepotism scandals relating to private schools run by Mr Abe’s associates, falsification of documents by the finance ministry, a spat over lost records from the Iraq war and the departure of a top bureaucrat after sexual harassment allegations have combined to erode public trust in the premier.

由安倍朋党运营的私立学校曝出丑闻，日本财务省伪造文件，围绕伊拉克战争记录丢失发生的争执，以及一名高级官员在受到性骚扰指控后离职等一系列事件，削弱了公众对这位首相的信任。

In percentage terms, support for Mr Abe’s government has fallen to the low 30s in polls, hurting confidence in a PM who faces internal party elections this year. Analysts think he can hold on for now but further falls in polls would force his resignation.

目前安倍政府在民调中的支持率已降至不到35%，民众对这位在今年面临党内选举的首相信心大减。分析人士认为，他暂时还可以撑一阵，但民意支持率进一步下滑可能会迫使他辞职。

In a sign of growing pressure, former premier Junichiro Koizumi, one of the ruling Liberal Democratic party’s most influential elder statesmen, said it would be “difficult” for Mr Abe to serve another term as leader.

安倍面临的压力与日俱增，执政的自民党(LDP)内最有影响力的资深政治家之一、前首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)近日表示，安倍“很难”再度连任党魁。

“If all the polls fell to the mid-20s then he’d have to quit,” said Tomoaki Iwai, professor of politics at Nihon University in Tokyo. “But he has time before September to recover popularity and the business community really wants him to stay. I don’t think he’ll quit so easily.”

“如果所有民调支持率都降至25%左右，那么他就必须辞职。”东京的日本大学(Nihon University)政治学教授岩井奉信(Tomoaki Iwai)说，“不过，他在9月之前还有时间来恢复人气，而且商界确实希望他留任。我认为他是不会轻易辞职的。”

Mr Abe’s rivals know overt disloyalty will end their chances, but as the prime minister’s grip weakens, they are plotting in back rooms and trying to position themselves as heir apparent.

安倍的对手们知道，公然表示不忠将断送自己的机会。但随着首相影响力减弱，他们正在暗地里密谋，并试图将自己摆在当然继任者的位置上。

Mr Abe has not groomed a successor who shares his conservative ideology so the most likely candidate is seen as 60-year-old Fumio Kishida, a former foreign minister who heads the party’s policy research council. From the LDP’s liberal wing, he is widely regarded as an able minister but not a charismatic communicator.

安倍还没有培养出一个认同他保守意识形态的继任者，因此最有可能的接任者被认为是60岁的前外相、自民党政策协调会会长岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)。他来自自民党的自由派，被广泛地认为是一位能干的大臣，但不是一个有魅力的沟通者。

“We should lend an ear to a variety of opinions and practice politics from the bottom up,” Mr Kishida told supporters in April, drawing an implicit but obvious contrast to Mr Abe’s top-down style.

“我们应该倾听各种意见，以自下而上的方式施政，”岸田今年4月对支持者表示，含蓄地表明了与安倍自上而下的风格迥异的立场。

Speaking to investors in Hong Kong last month, Mr Kishida emphasised the need for fiscal consolidation, saying the Bank of Japan’s easy monetary policy could not continue forever.

上月在香港对投资者发表讲话时，岸田强调了财政整顿的必要性，称日本央行(Bank of Japan)的宽松货币政策不能一直持续下去。

His main rival is Shigeru Ishiba, former defence minister, who heads a small party faction. Although his hardline views on national security are similar to the prime minister’s, he is seen as more down to earth than the patrician Mr Abe, with support in regional Japan. Abenomics “really hasn’t been felt in the regions”, Mr Ishiba said recently.

他的主要对手是前防卫大臣石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)，后者是自民党内一个小派系的领导者。尽管石破在国家安全问题上的强硬立场与安倍类似，但他被认为比颇有贵族范的安倍更接地气，他得到了地方上的支持。他最近表示，关于“安倍经济学”的成效，“地方上并没有感受到” 。

Mr Kishida and Mr Ishiba were forced to deny any leadership plots last week after meeting with two other LDP power brokers for a private birthday dinner. “We’re all the same age, so of course we discussed the kind of Japan we want to leave behind,” Mr Ishiba said.

岸田和石破上周被迫对密谋上位的说法予以否认，之前他们与另外两名自民党权力掮客在一次私人生日宴会上会面。“身为同龄人，我们当然讨论了想在身后留下什么样的日本，”石破说。

Internal affairs minister Seiko Noda — who would be Japan’s first female leader — has signalled she is likely to run. However, she lacks a political base in the LDP. Shinjiro Koizumi, son of the former prime minister and a rising star in the party, is more likely to be kingmaker than candidate at the age of 37.

总务大臣野田圣子(Seiko Noda)已暗示她可能会参选——如果她当选，将成为日本第一位女性领导人。然而她在自民党中缺乏政治基础。前首相小泉之子小泉进次郎(Shinjiro Koizumi)是该党的一颗新星，现年37岁的他更有可能从旁辅助某人而不是自己参选。

“If Mr Abe quits soon, the new leader would be Mr Kishida,” said Soichiro Tahara, a veteran commentator on Japanese politics. “If it’s soon, Mr Abe will still hold sway, and he’s most likely to back Mr Kishida. The longer it takes, the more Mr Ishiba’s chances rise.”

“如果安倍马上辞职，新领导人将是岸田。”资深日本政治评论员田原总一朗(Soichiro Tahara)表示，“如果安倍很快辞职，他仍然会有很大的影响力，他最有可能支持岸田。时间拖得越久，石破的机会就越大。”

All of the likely successors to Mr Abe are lukewarm on Abenomics, the stimulus programme that has delivered strong growth but failed to transform Japan’s economy.

安倍所有可能的继任者都对“安倍经济学”持冷淡态度，这项经济刺激计划带来了强劲增长，但未能从根本上改变日本经济面貌。

That would risk a jump in the yen, hurting exports — a questionable legacy for Mr Abe. “Abenomics is still half way,” said Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo. He said Bank of Japan independence would prevent a big change in monetary policy but potential new prime ministers were unlikely to push fiscal stimulus as hard as Mr Abe.

这可能会导致日元升值，有损出口——对安倍而言，这将是一项要打问号的政治遗产。“安倍经济学仍在半途，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻东京经济学家正道安达(Masamichi Adachi)表示。他还表示，日本央行的独立地位，意味着货币政策不太可能发生重大变化，但潜在的新首相不太可能像安倍那样大力推行财政刺激政策。

While Mr Abe is still in control, he has several routes to restore his popularity. The simplest would be policy results, such as progress on the return of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea, or relief from US steel tariffs.

虽然安倍仍掌控着局面，他只有不多的几种途径重振人气。最简单的就是实行切实有效的政策，比如在推动被朝鲜绑架的日本公民回国一事上取得进展，或争取美国对日本豁免钢铁关税。

A second option would be sacrificing Taro Aso, his finance minister, to answer for the document falsification and sexual harassment at his ministry. Mr Aso is a political power in his own right, however, and has shown no willingness to quit for the premier’s sake.

第二个选择是牺牲财务大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)，以此作为对财务省伪造文件及性骚扰的回应。然而，麻生本身自成一股政治势力，他并未表现出愿为首相辞职的意愿。

A third route, floated by senior LDP figures, is to call a general election and negate all the scandals with a new public mandate. It is less than a year since Japan went to the polls but the opposition is still hopelessly divided and weak. “Mr Abe can still win a majority,” said Mr Iwai. “However, nobody in politics wants an election, including his coalition partners in the Komeito party.”

自民党资深人士提出的第三条路线是举行大选，通过获得新的公共授权来否定所有的丑闻。上次大选到现在还不到一年，但反对派仍无可救药地分裂和疲弱。“安倍仍能赢得多数选票，”岩井说，“然而，政界没人想要选举，包括他在公明党(Komeito party)的联盟伙伴。”