前哨观察：日本经济结束28年来最长一轮增长

TOKYO—Japan’s economy contracted in the first three months of 2018 due to weak private consumption and business investment, putting the brakes on the nation’s longest growth streak in 28 years, government data showed.

东京--日本政府公布的数据显示，由于私人消费和商业投资疲弱，2018年前三个月日本经济萎缩，结束了该国28年来最长的一轮连续增长。

The world’s third-largest economy shrank at an annualized pace of 0.6% in the January-March period, compared with revised 0.6% growth in the final quarter of 2017. The contraction was the first since the final quarter of 2015.

1-3月份日本经济折合成年率萎缩0.6%，这是2015年第四季度以来日本经济首次出现萎缩；2017年第四季度的经济增速被修正至增长0.6%。

It comes as the Japanese economy seemed to have finally escaped decades of stagnation, helped by economic policies including the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing.

此前，在日本央行激进货币宽松措施等经济政策推动下，日本经济似乎终于摆脱数十年来经济停滞不前的局面。

An anticipated pickup in private-sector demand will help the economy return to growth, he said, adding that private consumption is expected to recover in part due to higher wages and a good momentum in global economy, said a senior official from Japan’s cabinet.

日本内阁府的一位高级官员表示，日本经济料在近期恢复增长，理由是私人消费的第三产业薪资状况改善且全球经济继续保持强劲势头。

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, stayed flat in the latest quarter after heavy snow in January and February caused people to stay home, while higher fresh-food and energy prices made consumers reluctant to spend.

第一季度私人消费持平，因1月和2月份的大雪天气让很多人足不出户，而生鲜食品和能源价格的上涨让消费者不愿消费。私人消费约占GDP的60%。第一季度资本支出也下降0.1%。

Still, some economists say any return to economic expansion would likely be milder than previous quarters. Capital Economics senior Japan economist Marcel expects annual growth to slow to 1.2% this year from 1.7% in 2017.

然而，一些经济学家称，任何经济增长的回归较以往几个季度增速来讲，都可能更为缓和。日本资本经济学高级经济学家Marcel估测，较往年年均增速，日本经济2018年增速同比还将下降0.5个百分点。

Still, government officials and analysts expect the decline to be temporary. Some analysts expect the economy to rebound as soon as this current April-June quarter.

然而，日本政府官员和分析学家称，当前增速下降只是暂时现象，一些分析家认为，最快在第二季度，日本经济就有望出现反弹。

“There is no change in our view that the economy is recovering moderately,”?Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said.

“我们认为经济正在稳健复苏，这一观点没有改变。”经济部长Toshimitsu Motegi称。

Trade disputes between the U.S. and China could also weigh on Japan if supply chains are affected.

美中贸易分歧一旦波及到供应链，势必也会对日本产生很大影响。

Exports, one of the key engines of the Japanese economy, added just 0.1 percentage point to overall non-annualized growth in the January-March period as demand for electronic parts, such as those for smartphones, slowed.

1-3月出口仅为整体经济增长贡献了0.1个百分点，因智能手机部件等电子零部件的需求增长放缓。出口是日本经济的关键引擎之一。