特朗普和约翰逊相似之处：擅长化友为敌

The disastrous G7 summit in Canada was a classic display of Donald Trump’s style of “negotiation” — one which combines self-pity, threats, and grandiose and impractical proposals. But just as most of America’s allies recoil in horror at the US president’s trade diplomacy, Mr Trump has found an admirer in Boris Johnson.

在灾难般的七国集团(G7)加拿大峰会上，唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的“谈判”风格——结合自怜、威胁以及浮夸而不切实际的提议——表露无遗。但就在美国多数盟友对美国总统的贸易外交感到错愕之际，英国外交大臣鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)却跳出来成为特朗普的仰慕者。

At a private dinner last week, Britain’s foreign secretary mused: “Imagine Trump doing Brexit?.?.?.?He’d go in bloody hard?.?.?.?There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought.”

在上周的一次私人晚宴上，这位英国外相说：“想象一下让特朗普来搞定英国退欧……他会横冲直撞……会有各种崩溃，各种混乱。每个人都会认为他疯了。但事实上你可能有所进展。这是一个非常非常好的想法。”

It is a very good thought, but not for the reasons that Mr Johnson thinks. There are close parallels between the Trump style of trade negotiation and that favoured by hardline Brexiters such as the foreign secretary. These similarities explain why both men are likely to damage their own causes, creating “all sorts of chaos” without any compensating gains.

这是一个非常好的想法，但并非因为约翰逊所想的理由。特朗普的贸易谈判风格和约翰逊等强硬退欧派所青睐的风格之间有着密切的相似之处。这些相似之处解释了二人都可能损害自己的宗旨，制造“各种混乱”，却没有任何补偿收益。

There are three key shared characteristics to the Trump-Johnson style. The first is the belief that big ideas matter much more than detailed knowledge. The second is an over-estimation of your own strength that sets you up for failure. Finally, there is the tendency to turn friends into enemies.

特朗普-约翰逊风格存在3个关键的共同特征。首先是以为宏大主意比具体知识重要得多。其次是对自己的实力估计过高，从而为失败搭起舞台。最后是化友为敌的倾向。

Mr Trump’s supporters are chortling that the president’s sudden advocacy of total free trade at the G7 summit has exposed the other leaders as hypocrites. But their bafflement stems from the fact that, unlike the US president, the other G7 leaders have some understanding of the complexities involved in international trade.

特朗普的支持者们嘲笑称，美国总统在G7峰会上突然主张彻底自由贸易，暴露了其他领导人的虚伪。但他们的困惑来自于一个事实：与特朗普不同，G7其他领导人对国际贸易所涉及的复杂性有一定了解。

For example, Mr Trump’s suggestion that all subsidies should be abolished is something that the EU has been pursuing internally for decades. In practice, it requires bureaucrats and politicians to agree on what constitutes a subsidy, and then to draw up rules and submit themselves to binding judgments by international institutions. This is just the kind of international governance that Mr Trump despises.

例如，特朗普建议取消所有补贴，这是欧盟内部过去几十年来一直追求的目标。在实践中，这需要官僚和政客们就补贴的涵义达成一致，然后还要制定规则，并提交给国际机构，由其做出具有约束力的裁决。这正是特朗普讨厌的那类国际治理。

Mr Johnson also thinks it is the big picture that matters, and that the tiresome details can be sorted out by underlings. So he refuses to believe that keeping the Irish border open after Britain leaves the EU is a real problem, rather than a trivial objection thrown up by officials.

约翰逊也认为最重要的是大局观，而令人厌倦的细节可以由下属来解决。因此他拒绝相信在英国退出欧盟后保持爱尔兰边境开放是一个真正的问题，而认为这只是官员们提出的一个琐碎的反对理由。

“No deal” would be disastrous for Britain, with crucial areas of commerce, such as pharmaceuticals, finance and aviation, stuck in legal limbo.

对英国来说，“无协议退欧”将是灾难性的，医药、金融和航空等关键领域都会陷入法律困境。

As a result, they are still reluctant to make any deals that might look like “rewarding” Mr Johnson. Mr Trump may discover that his bullying tactics on trade backfire in the same way.

其结果是，他们仍然不愿达成任何可能看似“奖励”约翰逊的协议。特朗普可能发现，他在贸易问题上的欺凌战术可能会同样适得其反。