欧元需要怎样的改革？

We are in the final stretch of economic diplomacy before the European Council summit at the end of June is supposed to agree reforms to strengthen the euro. Cue growing tension as deadlines loom to strike a compromise, as well as inflating grandiloquence about the historic chance of completing the Europe’s monetary union. But the formulaic rhetoric that goes with the territory is not good for clear thinking; it could lead us to forget what the whole point of the exercise is. What does “completing” a currency actually mean, and what (and why) is the “convergence” that is supposedly indispensable?

欧洲理事会(European Council)在6月底举行的峰会计划达成加强欧元的改革，我们目前正处于经济外交的最后冲刺阶段。随着达成妥协方案的截止时间日益临近，局面越来越紧张，同时关于完成欧洲货币联盟的历史性机遇的豪言壮语也越来越多。但是，有关欧元区的套话不利于清晰思考；它可能导致我们忘记欧元的整体意义。“完成”一种货币究竟意味着什么，所谓不可缺少的“融合”又是什么，又为什么不可缺少？

In the first of a series of Free Lunches on eurozone reform, let us take time to specify which problems we need to seek solutions for. Otherwise, we can hardly judge in a few weeks’ time whether the summit outcomes will have been a success or a failure.

作为有关欧元区改革的“免费午餐”(Free Lunches)系列文章的第一篇，让我们花些时间明确我们需要寻求解决方案的问题有哪些。否则，我们很难在短短数周内判断此次峰会的结果到底是成功还是失败。

Most importantly, we should pour cold water on any idea that the euro’s success is synonymous with strong growth and prosperity in all its members. There is little reason to think that a currency regime by itself is a strong determinant of economic growth. That some currency arrangement should reform imperfect policymakers and political leaders into economic geniuses is unrealistic. That it should force economic improvement by short-circuiting democratic and political processes altogether is undesirable. This is true everywhere — if the US president ruins his country’s economy, no one will blame the dollar — and it should be recognised as true in Europe, too. Do not blame the currency for problems that are not for it to solve.

最重要的是，我们应该给所有认为欧元成功等同于所有成员国强劲增长和繁荣发展的想法泼些冷水。几乎没有理由认为货币制度本身是决定经济增长的重要因素。认为某些货币安排会把不完美的政策决定者和政治领袖改造成经济天才，也是不切实际的。认为此类安排会通过缩短民主和政治进程而强力推动经济改善，亦是不可取的。无论对于哪个国家，都是如此——如果美国总统毁掉了美国经济，没人会责怪美元——欧洲也应该承认这一点。不要让货币为它无法解决的问题背黑锅。

What should be expected of a monetary union, however, is that it should be a source of stability rather than instability, both for the real economy (so that the mechanisms of a currency do not make downturns worse or otherwise create unnecessary economic costs) and for itself (so as to end any speculation that a member country might leave the currency).

人们对货币联盟的期望应该是，它是稳定源、而不应该成为不稳定的源头，无论是对于实体经济（这样一来，货币机制才不会使经济衰退雪上加霜，亦或造成不必要的经济代价）还是货币联盟本身（由此让人们不再猜测某个成员国可能会退出欧元区）。

Mario Draghi, the euro’s central banker, inimitably set out what this means in his speech in Florence last month; the single best guide to the eurozone’s challenges. What must not happen again, he showed, was the downward spiral in the crisis in which troubles in public finances, banks, and private companies and households all reinforced one another. This intensified the downturns, as governments consolidated their budgets instead of stimulating demand, banks restricted credit and private sector demand shrivelled away. With no source of demand, downward spirals set in that left economies in bad equilibria. On top of this and because of it, capital flight set in on the fear that a country might see that the only way out is leaving the euro.

上个月，欧洲央行行长马里奥德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在佛罗伦萨发表演讲时，给出了关于此的独一无二的解释；这成为了有关欧元区挑战的最佳指南。他指明，危机中的恶性循环——公共财政、银行、私人公司和家庭面临的危机彼此强化——绝对不能再次出现。随着各国政府巩固预算而非刺激需求，银行限制信贷而私营部门需求萎缩，这种恶性循环加剧了经济衰退。由于没有需求源，恶性循环让经济处于不利的均衡状态之中。最重要的是，由于恶性循环，资本会外逃，因为担心成员国看到的唯一出路可能是离开欧元区。