NPR News:泰国民众为稳定通过宪法公投 军方权力过大惹争议

In Thailand, it looks as if the ruling military will keep calling the shots for a lot longer. Voters in Thailand today overwhelmingly approved a new constitution drafted by the military-led government. One, critics say, enshrines the military's role in politics for years to come. Michael Sullivan joins us now from Bangkok to discuss today's vote. Michael, a big victory for the military. Why so big?
MICHAEL SULLIVAN, BYLINE: Well, it seems to me that the majority of those who voted feel the military has made good on its pledge to maintain order and political stability since the coup and trust the military to keep that process on track with this new constitution, a constitution that ensures the next government will be largely controlled by appointed, not elected officials. And it's the military that will do much of the appointing.
SUAREZ: Why do you think so many people would vote to essentially dilute democratic rule?
SULLIVAN: A couple of reasons, Ray, I mean, one we just mentioned — stability — right? In the past decade, there's been a seemingly endless cycle of political instability, street protests, political violence that people grew tired of, but maybe there's another reason. And that is that opponents of the proposed constitution never really got a chance to make their case.
And many Thais I spoke to said they really didn't know what was in the constitution. The military allowed no public rallies against it, no real public discussion or criticism of it, and those who dared faced 10 years in jail. So the military clearly stacked the deck, and the house always wins.
SUAREZ: At the same time, the military government, as so many of them do around the world, promised that it would transition back to people's rule. What happens next? What's in the mechanics here?
看起来，泰国军政府将在更长的时间里继续执政。今天，泰国选民以压倒性多数票通过了军政府起草的新宪法。评论家表示，宪法中确定军方在政治中的作用将持续下去。迈克尔·苏利文将从曼谷和我们连线，详细介绍今天的投票。迈克尔，这对军方来说是一场重要的胜利。为什么如此重要？
迈克尔·苏利文连线：在我看来，投票的大部分人认为军方很好地兑现了他们的承诺，在政变后维持秩序和政治稳定，另外，他们相信军方会用新宪法继续推进这一进程，新宪法确定下届政府的大部分官员将由指派产生，而不是选举产生。大部分官员将由军方指派。
苏亚雷斯：你认为为什么有这么多人投票支持削弱民主统治？
苏利文：有几个原因，雷，我刚才提到了其中一个原因，稳定。过去10年，无止境的政治不稳定周期频繁发生，街头抗议、政治暴力不断，人们厌倦了这一切，不过可能还有另一个原因。反对宪法提案的人从来没有得到发表看法的机会。
许多接受我采访的泰国人表示，他们不知道宪法中有什么内容。军方不允许民众举行集会反对宪法，宪法也没有进行过公开讨论和公开评论，而敢于公开集会反对新宪法的人则可能面临10年监禁。显然军方做了手脚，上议院总会获胜。
苏亚雷斯：同时，就像全世界的其他军政府一样，泰国军政府承诺会转换回民治政府。那接下来会发生什么？泰国的机制是怎样的？

SULLIVAN: Well, the prime minister former army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha says they'll be a new election next year and that now means that an elected lower house and an appointed upper house will be chosen. And the military will do the appointing of the latter, and there will also be at least six seats set aside for the military in that upper house.
And all of this is designed to prevent any one political party from becoming too powerful, which has happened in the past. And it seems aimed specifically at the political machine of the Shinawatra clan, the populist prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was deposed by the military in 2006, and it was his sister's government that was the one removed by the military two years ago.
SUAREZ: So how will the Shinawatra supporters, which is, after all, millions of Thais, react?
SULLIVAN: Yeah, that's unclear. I mean, they've been pretty quiet since the coup. But, again, speaking out against it, you know, isn't really a good idea. Those who do so are often invited for attitude adjustment — the military's term not mine — and I don't see the military suddenly allowing them any more political space.
But other critics who aren't Shinawatra supporters, just, you know, democracy activists are obviously disappointed with today's vote because they say this is clearly a big step backward for Thai democracy.
SUAREZ: Does this latest version of military-backed rule enjoy the support of the king? He's a popular figure. Would we even know he's the world's longest reigning monarch, 88, and said to be in declining health?
SULLIVAN: He is in failing health, and I've seen no statement from the king. But that's not a surprise. He spends most of his time in the hospital and doesn't really speak in public anymore, though, he's still deeply revered by most Thais. Having said that, the military has long presented itself as the defender of the monarchy, and it's clearly worried about the transition after the king leaves the scene. His son, the crown prince, isn't nearly as popular and some here say one of the reasons for the coup two years ago was to help ensure that the transition goes smoothly.
SUAREZ: Michael Sullivan joined us from Bangkok. Good to talk to you.
SULLIVAN: And you, Ray.
苏利文：泰国总理、前陆军总司令帕拉育表示，明年会举行选举，组建选举产生的下议院和指派产生的上议院。上议院由军方指派产生，而且上议院中将有6个席位由军方人员担任。
这样做的目的是防止任何一个政党的权力过于强大，因为以前曾发生过这种情况。看起来这是专门针对西那瓦家族的措施，2006年泰国军方罢黜了民粹主义总理他信·西那瓦，两年前，军方罢免了他信的妹妹英拉领导的政府。
苏亚雷斯：那数百万西那瓦家族的支持者作何反应？
苏利文：目前并不清楚。自政变以后，他们一直非常安静。不过，我要再说一次，公开反对军方的决定并不是个好办法。这样做的人一般会被要求调整态度，当然这是泰国军方的用词，不是我说的，我不认为军方会突然允许他们享有更多的政治空间。
也有一些评论人士不是西那瓦家族的支持者，民主活动人士对今天的投票结果非常失望，他们说这显然是泰国民主的大退步。
苏亚雷斯：那泰国国王支持这个最新的军方支持的规定吗？泰国国王深受欢迎。我们知道他今年88岁，是世界上在位时间最长的君主，据说他的健康在不断恶化。
苏利文：他的健康每况愈下，我还没有看到国王的声明。这并不令人吃惊。他大部分时间都在医院度过，而且已经不再公开发表讲话，不过他依然深受大部分泰国人的敬仰。话虽如此，长时间以来军方一直自诩为君主制的保卫者，而且对国王离位后的王位交接感到非常担心。国王的儿子，泰国王储没有他父亲那么受欢迎，有些泰国人认为，两年前发生政变的其中一个原因是为了确保王位交接顺利进行。
苏亚雷斯：以上是迈克尔·苏利文从曼谷带来的报道。很高兴和你连线。
苏利文：雷，我也是。