NPR News:美众院议长瑞安放弃为特朗普助选 讨论撤销背书

Many Republicans now believe that Donald Trump could overturn the party's majorities in both chambers of Congress. That's one reason House speaker Paul Ryan spoke to House Republicans today in a conference call 29 days from the election and three days since the tape of Donald Trump surfaced where he brags about groping and kissing women, saying, when you're a star, you can do anything. Joining us now is NPR congressional correspondent Susan Davis. Hi, Sue.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Hey, Ari.
SHAPIRO: So what was Paul Ryan's message to House Republicans today?
DAVIS: The speaker announced that he will no longer defend Donald Trump, and he will no longer appear with him on the campaign trail. He told members on this call that they need to do what's best for you in your district — was his message, essentially saying, if you need to cut ties with Donald Trump, you can.
And he said he is singularly focused on preventing Hillary Clinton from having Democrats in charge of Congress, which sounds like a concession that he does not believe Donald Trump can win. What he did not do was withdrawal his endorsement.
SHAPIRO: Why not?
DAVIS: It's important to remember that most House Republicans still stand by Trump. I'm told members on the call were fired up. They thought his performance in last night's debate has — keeping him in this race. And they still believe he's a better candidate for president. In fact some of the members on the call said they want leadership to continue to stand by the nominee and that they think withdrawing support could be a mistake and alienate some Republican voters.
But it's important to remember that most of these Republicans are in safe districts. They're not facing competitive races this fall. The members who are in competitive races are some of the first lawmakers that came out over this weekend to either unendorse Donald Trump or say they will vote for somebody else this fall. And that is a much better indicator of how this is playing down the ballot.
现在许多共和党人认为唐纳德·特朗普可能推翻该党在国会两院中的多数席位。这也是今天众议院议长保罗·瑞安召开共和党电话会议的其中一个原因，现在距离总统大选还有29天，距离唐纳德·特朗普吹嘘抚摸亲吻女性的视频曝光已有三天时间，他在视频中说如果你是明星，你可以做任何事。现在我们将连线NPR新闻驻国会的记者苏珊·戴维斯。你好，苏珊。
苏珊·戴维斯连线：你好，阿里。
夏皮罗：保罗·瑞安今天向众议院共和党人传递了什么信息？
戴维斯：众议院议长宣布他将不再为唐纳德·特朗普辩护，也不再为他的竞选活动站台。他在电话会议上对共和党同僚表示，他们需要做的是在选区内对自己最有益的事情，他的意思是，如果你想切断和唐纳德·特朗普的关系，你可以这么做。
另外他说道，他会把精力集中在阻止希拉里·克林顿使民主党获得国会控制权上，这听起来像是他承认唐纳德·特朗普会在大选中失利。但是他并没有撤销他对特朗普的背书。
夏皮罗：为什么没有？
戴维斯：重要的是要记住，大部分众议院共和党人仍支持特朗普。我听说参加电话会议的共和党成员感到非常愤怒。他们认为特朗普在昨晚电视辩论中的表现确保他可以继续进行选举。他们仍认为他是更好的总统候选人。实际上，参加电话会议的一些成员表示，他们希望领导层能继续支持特朗普，因为他们认为撤销支持可能是个错误，而且可能会疏远一些共和党选民。
但是重要的是，持这种观点的大部分共和党人来自安全选区。他们在今年秋天不会面临激烈的竞争。而那些来自竞争激烈选区的共和党议员是上周末最先站出来表反对的议员，他们或撤销对唐纳德·特朗普的背书，或表示将在选举时投票给其他人。这更加印证了选票面临的损失。

SHAPIRO: So Paul Ryan, the leader of the House Republicans, is in the middle of all of this. He has had a very difficult relationship complicated with Donald Trump all year long. Is this an actual break up between the two of them?
DAVIS: So Donald Trump as usual took to his favorite medium. He went to Twitter after the news of the call was announced, and he tweeted, Paul Ryan should spend more time on balancing the budget, jobs, illegal immigration and not waste his time on fighting Republican nominee.
So I think in other words, to quote the millennial philosopher Taylor Swift, it sounds like they are never, ever getting back together.
SHAPIRO: (Laughter) What does this mean for control of the House after November? You've been telling us all year long that Republicans are not likely to lose the house? Do you still think that's true?
DAVIS: It is still tough. It does not change the universe of races that are in competition. Right now there's about 45 seats that are held by Republicans that are even in this orbit of competitiveness. Democrats would need to run the board in those races. They would have to win almost every one of them and defend every single one of their own races, which isn't impossible, but it's tough. That's the kind of thing you only really see in a wave election year.
Democrats don't necessarily have the candidates they need to do this, and what they don't necessarily have is the money. One of the things to look for is to see if an influx of donations both from big donors and small donors on the Democratic side start to flood into these races to try and make them competitive in the home stretch.
SHAPIRO: Why do Democrats believe that these latest Trump comments about women have possibly changed the outlook? There have been so many offensive Trump remarks over the last year. Why do they see this as potentially a tipping point?
DAVIS: Right. Why this? Why now, right? Women voters — remember a couple of years ago; there was a race in Missouri. Todd Akin was a Republican senator. Claire McCaskill was the Democrat. The Republican candidate made very offensive comments about rape and about women, and this was a race that is in a Republican-leaning state that a Republican should have won. And the Democrat won there by a significant margin because women voters are so alienated by this conversation.
And they've already felt alienated by the Republican Party in this race. And a lot of these House races are being played out in the suburbs and in other areas where women voters make up a significant portion of the electorate. So that is what give Democrats hope. And if this conversation on Election Day is about locker room talk and what defines sexual assault, Democrats believe they can have a very good day.
SHAPIRO: NPR congressional correspondent Susan Davis, thank you.
DAVIS: Thanks, Ari.
夏皮罗：众议院共和党领导人保罗·瑞安处于漩涡中心。一整年来他同唐纳德·特朗普之间的关系非常复杂。这是否意外着二人的决裂？
戴维斯：唐纳德·特朗普像往常一样用他最喜欢的媒介表达了他的观点。他在电视会议的消息放出后在推特上表示，保罗·瑞安应该在平衡预算、就业和非法移民上花更多时间，而不是浪费时间争取共和党议员提名。
我认为，换句话说，引用“千禧一代的哲学家”泰勒·斯威夫特的歌词，他们二人的关系再也回不到从前了。
夏皮罗：（笑声）这对11月之后的众议院控制权意味着什么？一整年你都在说共和党不太可能失去众议院的控制权。现在你仍这么认为吗？
戴维斯：仍然非常艰难。竞选的总体形势并没有改变。即使在这样的竞争下，共和党仍确保了45个席位。民主党要在竞选中拼尽全力。基本上，他们必须要赢下所有的席位，还要保护本方竞选中的所有席位，虽然这不是可能的，但非常艰难。这种情况只在“浪潮选举年”时才会发生。
民主党人不一定要有做这些事的候选人，他们也不一定需要资金。他们需要关注的是民主党方面的较大资助者和较小资助者提供的资金是否开始注入这些选举中，以帮助他们在最后阶段保有竞争力。
夏皮罗：为什么民主党人认为唐纳德·特朗普对女性的言论可能会改变选举前景？去年特朗普说了很多攻击性言论。为什么这次会被视为转折点？
戴维斯：对。为什么？为什么是现在？因为女性选民，还记得几年前密苏里州的那场选举吗？当时托德·阿金是共和党参议员。克莱尔·麦克卡斯基尔是民主党议员。共和党候选人阿金对强奸问题以及女性发表了非常无礼的言论，密苏里州是倾向于支持共和党的选区，共和党人本应该获胜的。可是最后民主党人却以显著优势获得了胜利，因为阿金的言论疏远了女性选民。
她们已经感觉到自己在竞选中被共和党疏远了。许多众议院选举都在郊区和女性选民占多数的地区举行。所以这给了民主党人希望。如果在大选日的讲话是更衣室里的谈话，被界定为性攻击的话，那民主党人认为他们可以度过非常愉快的一天。
夏皮罗：以上是NPR新闻驻国会记者苏珊·戴维斯带来的报道，谢谢你。
戴维斯：谢谢，阿里。