疫情带来的工人工资上涨

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Labour costs

工人成本

The pandemic pay rise

疫情导致工资上涨

Wages are surging across the rich world

发达国家的工资正在飙升

What it means for the economic recovery

这对经济复苏意味着什么？

NOT LONG ago pundits obsessively checked the latest statistics on covid-19 cases.

不久以前，专家们着迷般地查看新冠肺炎病例的最新统计数据。

Now they are doing the same with the inflation numbers.

现在，他们对通胀数据也采取了同样的做法。

American consumer prices rose by 5.4% in the year to September, according to figures published on October 13th, exceeding forecasts.

10月13日公布的数据显示，截至9月份，美国消费者价格上涨了5.4%，超出了预期。

A survey from the New York Federal Reserve released the previous day showed a small pickup in consumers’ inflation expectations.

纽约联邦储备银行前一天公布的调查显示，消费者的通胀预期略有回升。

In its semi-annual report on the global economy the IMF warned that the prospects for inflation were “highly uncertain”.

国际货币基金组织在其关于全球经济的半年度报告中警告称，通胀前景“高度不确定”。

Soaring energy costs will push up consumer prices in the near term.

飙升的能源成本将在短期内推高消费价格。

Pay, too, is surging, as red-hot demand runs up against a shortage of workers.

工资也在飙升，因为来势汹汹的需求遇到了工人短缺的问题。

Does it stand to fuel further price rises?

这是否会推动价格进一步上涨？

When covid-19 first struck, most forecasters expected bosses to slash bonuses and yearly rises, or even to cut basic pay, as they did after the global financial crisis in 2007-09.

新冠病毒刚来袭时，大多数预测者预计老板们会像2007年至2009年全球金融危机后那样，削减奖金和年度加薪，甚至会削减基本工资。

Although wage growth did slow modestly early in the pandemic, that restraint has since been abandoned.

尽管工资增长在疫情初期确实略有放缓，之后便没有限制了。

Oxford Economics, a consultancy, finds that pay in the rich world is growing at a rate well above its pre-pandemic average.

牛津经济咨询公司发现，发达国家的工资增长速度远远高于疫情前的平均水平。

The acceleration in compensation per worker across the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, is equally arresting.

经济合作与发展组织（OECD，一个主要由发达国家成立的组织）人均工资的增长速度也同样引人注目。

The wage numbers have sometimes misled during the pandemic.

在疫情期间，工资数字有时会误导人们。

When lockdowns were imposed poorly paid people in service jobs dropped out of the workforce, for instance, which had the effect of raising average pay as measured by statisticians.

例如，当实行封锁时，从事服务业工作的低收入者就会退出劳动市场，根据统计学家的计算，这将会提高平均工资。

Even so, wage growth seems to have been stronger than the scale of the economic downturn alone would have suggested.

尽管如此，工资增长似乎比经济规模衰退来的更猛烈。

Goldman Sachs, a bank, has created a “tracker” that corrects for pandemic-related distortions.

高盛银行已经开发了一种“追踪器”，可以纠正与疫情相关的不平衡。

Underlying wage growth, at about 2.5% across the G10 group of large economies, is as fast as it was in 2018.

在10国集团的大型经济体中，基本工资增长约为2.5%，与2018年一样快。

No wonder then that pay has become a hot topic in the corporate world.

难怪薪酬成为了企业界的热门话题。

On October 6th, Bank of America increased its company-wide minimum wage by 5%.

10月6日，美国银行将全公司的最低工资提高了5%。

Amazon now boasts of roles in transport and packaging, paying $22.50 an hour in America, making left-wing activists’ demands for a federal minimum wage of $15 seem quaint.

亚马逊现在吹嘘自己在运输和包装方面的厉害，在美国每小时支付工人工资22.5美元，这使得左翼活动人士要求联邦最低工资为15美元的要求显得有些格格不入。

An index compiled by Goldman suggests that the share prices of American companies most exposed to rising labour costs have fallen by 4% since May, even as the broader stockmarket has risen by 7%.

高盛统计的一项数据显示，自5月以来，受劳动力成本上涨影响，最大的美国公司的股价下跌了4%，而整体股市却上涨了7%。

Even bosses in Germany, long used to acquiescent unions, now face demands to pay up.

即使是德国老板，长期以来已习惯默许工会，现在也面临着支付高额工资的要求。

Some workers are benefiting more than others.

一些工人比其他人受益更多。

Analysis by The Economist of British wage data by industry suggests that annual pay growth is twice as dispersed as it was before the pandemic.

《经济学人》对英国各行业工资数据的分析表明，各行业年度工资增长的分散性是疫情前的两倍。

Wages in the accommodation and food-service sector, which is struggling to attract workers, rose by 8% in the year to July; increases in manufacturing have been more modest.

正努力吸引工人的住宿和餐饮服务行业工资在今年到7月份上涨了8%；制造业的增长则较为温和。

In America the wages of the least-paid quartile of workers are growing 70% faster than those at the top.

在美国，工资最低的四分之一工人的工资增长速度比最高工资的工人快70%。

Underlying pay is rising about three times as quickly in Anglo-Saxon countries as in continental Europe.

盎格鲁-撒克逊国家，基本工资的增长速度大约是欧洲大陆的三倍。

That could be because places such as America and Canada rely more on the consumer-facing industries experiencing the worst labour shortages.

这可能是因为美国和加拿大等地更多地依赖于面向消费者的行业，而这些行业正经历着最严重的劳动力短缺。

And France and Italy, where annual pay growth is below 1%, probably do not face the same immigration crunch as Britain, which has Brexited, or Australia and New Zealand, which have closed their borders to keep out covid-19.

而年工资增长低于1%的法国和意大利，可能不会面临像英国那样的移民危机，因为英国已经脱欧，澳大利亚和新西兰为防止新冠病毒输入已经关闭了边境。

Only a few years ago economists were bemoaning weak wage growth.

就在几年前，经济学家还在哀叹工资增长疲软。

So it may seem churlish not to pop the champagne now that the opposite is happening.

因此，既然相反的情况正在发生，不开香槟庆祝似乎都有些无礼了。

But pay can rise for a variety of reasons, some more benign than others.

但工资上涨的原因多种多样，其中一些原因比较温和。

For a given level of productivity, higher wages must show up in one of two ways: as higher inflation or as a higher “labour share” of GDP.

对于给定的生产力水平，更高的工资必须以两种方式之一表现出来：要么是更高的通货膨胀率，要么是更高的“劳动力份额”。

Take inflation first. Costlier staff may force bosses to raise the price of whatever they are selling.

先以通货膨胀为例。成本更高的员工可能会迫使老板们提高他们所销售产品的价格。

At worst, higher inflation could cancel out any rise in cash wages, leaving workers no better off than they were before (and perhaps encouraging them to seek further increases).

在最坏的情况下，更高的通货膨胀率可能会抵消现金工资的任何增长，使工人的境况不会比以前更好（或许还会促进他们寻求进一步的加薪）。

American real wages are growing on a monthly basis but they remain lower than a year ago.

美国人的实际工资每月都在增长，但仍低于一年前的水平。

Some firms seem happy to pass on a bigger wage bill to consumers.

一些公司似乎乐于将更高的工资账单转嫁给消费者。

On a recent earnings call an executive at Domino’s Pizza discussed how the firm might offset wage rises (pricier Margheritas might be on the way).

在最近的一次财报电话会议上，达美乐披萨的一位高管讨论了该公司如何抵消工资上涨的影响（价格更高的玛格丽特披萨可能即将到来）。

Most S&P 500 companies are protecting margins “by passing on price increases to consumers”, says Goldman.

高盛表示，大多数标准普尔500指数公司都在“通过涨价转嫁给消费者”来保护利润率。

Other firms, however, may absorb higher wages by accepting lower profits.

然而，其他公司可能会通过接受较低的利润来吸收更高的工资。

That would change the distribution of the economic pie, raising the “labour share”, or the proportion of GDP paid to workers as wages.

这将改变经济蛋糕的分配，提高“劳动力份额”即支付给工人的工资占GDP的比例。

Our analysis suggests that the labour share in the G7 has risen by about one percentage point since the pandemic began—equivalent to $400bn or so of extra real income for households each year.

我们的分析表明，自疫情爆发以来，七国集团的劳动力份额上升了约1个百分点，相当于所有家庭每年增加约4000亿美元的实际收入。

What does this mean for the wider economy?

这对整体经济意味着什么？

A big topic of debate among economists is whether the labour share before covid-19 had been declining or not.

经济学家们争论的一个大话题是，在疫情之前，劳动力份额是否一直在下降。

It seems most likely that the share fell in America, so a recovery might be welcome.

似乎最有可能的是美国的份额下降了，所以复苏可能是受欢迎的。

But an ever-rising labour share would be a worry: it would crimp companies’ profits and thus the investments that are crucial to improving long-run economic growth.

但不断上升的劳动力份额将是一个令人担忧的问题：这将影响公司的利润，从而影响对改善长期经济增长至关重要的投资。

There is another, happier, possibility.

还有另一种更令人开心的可能性。

If productivity rises, then wage growth need not cause sustained inflation, nor push up the labour share.

如果生产率提高，那么工资增长不一定会导致持续的通胀，也不会推高劳动力份额。

Instead the economic pie would grow, with more for everyone.

相反，经济蛋糕增长，每个人都会得到更多。

Some evidence suggests that workers are doing more with less.

一些证据表明，工人们正在用更少的钱做更多的事情。

Firms are investing in new technologies to meet new demands, especially from online commerce.

公司正在投资新技术以满足新的需求，特别是来自电子商务的新需求。

“Hybrid” work may be more efficient than everyone being in the office all the time.

“混合”工作可能比每个人一直呆在办公室效率更高。

Productivity statistics are even cloudier than the wage ones; but since the third quarter of 2020 output per employed person has risen in 25 of the 29 rich countries for which figures are available.

生产力统计数据甚至比工资统计数据更加模糊；但自2020年第三季度以来，在29个可获得数据的发达国家中，有25个国家的人均就业产出有所上升。

The rise in wages, then, seems to reflect a number of underlying economic forces, and need not feed through entirely to inflation.

因此，工资的上涨似乎反映了一些潜在的经济力量，并不一定会完全导致通胀。

But forecasting prices is just as hard as predicting covid-19 case numbers.

但预测价格就像预测冠状病毒病例数量一样困难。

One thing is clear: that if the pay surge endures, the consequences will be profound.

有一件事是明确的：如果工资上涨持续下去，后果将是深远的。