疫情后疯狂印钞发放的美国(1)

Finance & economics

财经版块

America's consumers

美国消费者

Life after stimmy

大把支票下的生活

Will households, pandemic savings stash keep the economy rolling?

家庭储蓄和防疫储蓄能保持经济运转吗？

America's fiscal largesse during the pandemic has fuelled not just economic growth but also a lively hip-hop niche.

美国在疫情期间的慷慨财政不仅推动了经济增长，也推动了活跃的嘻哈小众市场。

Over the past two years musicians have released no fewer than 30 different songs referring to the government's stimulus cheques, known as stimmies.

在过去的两年里，音乐家们已经发布了30多首关于政府发放刺激性支票的歌曲，刺激性支票被称为“stimmies”。

"Yeah, check, I need a stimmy. S-t-i-double m-y, tell 'em gimme',” raps Curtis Roach in one snappy track.

“嘿，切克闹，我需要一个刺激支票。S-t-i-double m-y，给我吧！”柯蒂斯·罗奇在一首轻快的曲子里说唱道。

The video seems to confirm the worst fears about how the money was spent.

这段视频似乎证实了人们对这笔钱是如何花掉的最糟糕的担忧。

Mr Roach fans himself with dollar bills and sprays them about at parties.

罗奇先生用美元纸币做成扇子形状，并在聚会上四处散钱。

But a closer listen reveals a conservative streak that would do fusty financial planners proud.

但仔细听一听，你会发现他有一种保守的性格，会让老气的理财规划师感到自豪。

"Generational wealth, that's where it's at…save a lil' bit for the rainy days on yo' back, never slack."

“世代的财富，这就是价值所在，存点钱以备不时之需，永不懈怠。”

The question of how Americans spent and, crucially, saved money over the past two years looms large over the economy today.

在过去的两年里，美国人是如何花钱以及如何存钱的，这一问题在今天的经济中显得尤为突出。

In spring 2020, when millions lost their jobs overnight, a reasonable assumption was that personal finances would suffer.

2020年春天，当数百万人一夜之间失去工作，一个合理的假设是个人财务将受到影响。

Instead, government handouts, from the stimmies to more generous unemployment benefits, propped up incomes.

然后，与预料相反的是从经济刺激计划到更慷慨的失业救济金，政府的救济措施提高了人们的收入。

Moreover, as people stayed home, their spending fell well below normal levels.

此外，由于人们呆在家里，他们的支出远远低于正常水平。

The result was a piggy-bank boom.

结果导致了一场存钱热潮。

Americans have accumulated some $2.5trn in extra savings compared with the pre-covid trend.

与疫情前的趋势相比，美国人已经积累了大约2.5万亿美元的额外储蓄。

Higher-than-expected incomes account for two-thirds of the stockpile, while lower-than-expected expenditures explain the other third, according to calculations by The Economist.

根据《经济学人》的计算，高于预期的收入占储蓄的三分之二，而低于预期的支出解释了另外三分之一。

This stash of cash could, in theory, provide a pillar for the economy over the coming year as policymakers withdraw support.

从理论上讲，随着政策制定者撤回支持，这些现金储备可能会为未来一年的经济提供支柱。

With annual consumer-price inflation running at a four-decade high—it hit 7% in December—the Federal Reserve has signalled that it intends to raise interest rates soon.

随着年度消费价格通胀达到40年来的最高水平——12月份达到了7%——美联储已经发出信号，它打算很快提高利率。

Some economists expect as many as four rate increases this year.

一些经济学家预计今年可能会有四次加息。

Fiscal policies are also becoming more parsimonious.

财政政策也变得更加节俭。

Many of the benefit top-ups expired in the autumn.

许多补贴已于今年秋季到期。

The Democratic Party's inability thus far to pass President Joe Biden's “Build Back Better” programme will lead to further retrenchment.

民主党迄今未能通过乔·拜登总统的“重建美好未来”计划，这将导致进一步的紧缩。

Will the extra savings blunt the impact of all this policy tightening?

额外的储蓄会削弱所有这些政策紧缩政策带来的影响吗？

There are reasons to be sceptical.

我们有理由对此表示怀疑。

Were the $2.5trn shared equally across the country, it would amount to about $7,500 for every American—more than the combined total of the three rounds of stimulus cheques.

如果2.5万亿美元在全国范围内平均分配，相当于每个美国人大约7500美元——这比三轮“刺激支票”的总和还要多。

In practice the distribution is far from equal.

实际上，分配远远不平等。

In the decade before covid-19 the wealthiest 1% of Americans had, in aggregate, about twice as much in cash and chequable bank deposits as the bottom 50%.

在疫情之前的十年里，最富有的1%的美国人总共拥有的现金和支票银行存款大约是底层50%人的两倍。

The pandemic has skewed this further: the top 1% now has four times as much as the bottom half.

这场疫情进一步扭曲了这一点：最富有的1%的人的收入是最贫穷50%人的四倍。

Over the government directed its assistance towards poorer Americans, the ultra-rich reaped far greater rewards, thanks in large part to soaring asset prices.

政府的援助对象是较贫穷的美国人，但超级富豪获得的回报要大得多，这在很大程度上要归功于飙升的资产价格。

That matters in trying to assess the potential impact of excess savings.

在试图评估过度储蓄的潜在影响时，这一点很重要。

The wealthy typically spend a low share of their incomes.

富人的消费只占他们收入很少的一部分。

The extra cash sitting in their hands is more likely to go towards investment accounts than grocery purchases.

他们手中的额外现金更有可能用于投资，而不是购买食品杂货。