美国通胀啥时候是个头

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Follow the money

跟着钱走

The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside.

唯一能证明2021年美国的通货膨胀是暂时的，是人们一致认为它将会消退。

The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.

左边的图表显示，分析师不断向上修正他们的预测，还是落后于现实。

Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.

与去年同期相比，消费者价格上涨了近7%，这是自1982年以来的最快增速。

What does the future hold?

未来是什么样子？

The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.

右边的图表显示了两种情况。

In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.

第一种情况，月度环比通胀率立即回落至疫情前的水平。

Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.

即便如此，年通胀率要到2022年底才能降至2%，这在过去是常态。

In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.

第二种情况，消费者价格指数月度增幅与去年持平。

Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.

2月份，年通货膨胀率将飙升至近8%，并保持在较高水平。

Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.

无论哪种情况，有一种预测似乎已成定局：美联储将在2022年开始加息，正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那样。