高通胀下一些落后国家还好吗(上)

Finance and Economics

财经版块

Emerging markets | Living the high life

新兴市场 高生活成本

Cautionary tales from high-inflation economies

高通胀经济体的警示故事

In recent months the world economy has come to resemble a badly microwaved dinner: generally hot, but with some bits merely lukewarm and others positively scorching.

近几个月来，世界经济就像一顿糟糕的微波炉晚餐：总体上是热的，但有一些地方不温不火，有一些地方过于炙热。

Consumer prices globally are likely to rise by 4.8% this year, according to the IMF, which would be the fastest increase since 2007.

根据国际货币基金组织的数据，今年全球消费价格可能上涨4.8%，这将是自2007年以来的最快涨幅。

But price rises in emerging markets are running ahead of those in the rich world, and a few unfortunates, such as Argentina, Brazil and Turkey, are feeling particular pain.

但新兴市场的消费价格涨幅领先于发达国家，阿根廷、巴西和土耳其等少数国家已经感受到了特别的痛苦。

Their experience helps illustrate how and when inflation can get out of hand.

他们的经验有助于展示通胀是如何失控的以及何时可能失控。

Although inflation rates in emerging markets tend to be higher and more volatile than those in advanced economies, they did generally decline between the 1970s and the 2010s, much like those in the rich world.

尽管新兴市场的通货膨胀率往往比发达经济体更高，波动性更大，但在20世纪70年代至2010年代期间，新兴市场与发达国家一样，通胀率都有普遍下降。

The median inflation rate among emerging economies fell from 10.6% in 1995 to 5.4% in 2005 and 2.7% in 2015, thanks to efficiency-boosting developments like globalisation and improved macroeconomic policymaking.

新兴经济体的通货膨胀率中值从1995年的10.6%下降到2005年的5.4%和2015年的2.7%，这要归功于全球化和宏观经济政策制定等带来的高效发展。

The IMF expects consumer prices in emerging economies to rise by 5.8% this year, which is not a huge departure from recent trends; prices rose at a similar pace as recently as 2012.

国际货币基金组织预计今年新兴经济体的消费价格将上涨5.8%，这与最近的趋势相差不大；在2012年，房价也以类似的速度上涨。

But some economies have strayed well above the mean.

但一些经济体已经偏离了，通胀率远高于平均水平。

Inflation stands at 10.2% in Brazil, 19.9% in Turkey, and 52.5% in Argentina.

巴西的通货膨胀率为10.2%，土耳其为19.9%，阿根廷为52.5%。

Such high inflation reflects more than soaring food and energy prices.

如此高的通胀反映的不仅仅是食品和能源价格的飙升。

In advanced economies and many emerging ones, a jump in prices usually triggers a restraining response from the central bank.

不管是发达经济体还是许多新兴经济体，价格上涨通常会引发央行的抑制反应。

That response is more powerful when central banks are credible, say because inflation has been low in the past, and the fiscal picture benign.

如果之前的通胀率一直很低， 财政状况良好，央行比较可靠的话，这种抑制反应会更强。

Then people behave as if a price spike will not last—by moderating wage demands, for instance—which reduces inflationary pressure.

好像在人们看来物价飙升不持续太久就会减轻通胀压力，例如，采取降低工资需求等策略。

This happy state can be disturbed in a number of ways.

这种所谓的快乐状态被其他多种方式扰乱。

Compromising the independence of the central bank is sometimes enough to make the temperature rise.

有时牺牲央行的独立性足以让局势升温。

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has declared himself an enemy of interest earnings and leant on the central bank to reduce its benchmark rate, a step he claims will bring down inflation.

土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安宣称自己抵制利息收入，并要求该国央行降低基准利率，他声称此举将降低通胀。

Over the years he has sacked a number of central-bank officials, most recently three members of the bank’s monetary-policy committee in October.

这些年来，他已经解雇了多名央行官员，最近的一次是在10月份解雇了央行货币政策委员会的三名成员。

Such antics have contributed to capital outflows and a tumbling lira.

这样的滑稽举动导致了资本外流和里拉（土耳其货币单位）暴跌。