六个经济学家能给出七个不同意见

Finance & economics

财经版块

Economics

经济

The new consensus

新的共识

A new study finds that economies are agreeing with each other more

一项新的研究发现，各经济体之间的共识越来越一致

Observers have long poked fun at the inability of the economics profession to make up its mind.

长期以来，观察家们一直嘲笑经济学专家无法做出决定。

"If parliament were to ask six economists for an opinion, seven would come back," runs one version of an old joke.

“如果议会征求六位经济学家的意见，会返回七种意见，”一个古老笑话这样写道。

Yet the gibes may be losing their force.

然而，这些嘲笑可能正在失去效力。

A new paper, by Doris Geide-Stevenson and Alvaro La Parra Perez of Weber State University, finds that economists are agreeing with each other more on a number of policy-related questions.

韦伯州立大学的Doris Geide-Stevenson和Alvaro La Parra Perez的一篇新论文中指出，经济学家在一些与政策相关的问题上更加一致。

The paper publishes the results of the latest wave of a survey of economists that has been conducted roughly once a decade since 1976 (though the results of the first wave are not entirely comparable with later ones).

这篇论文公布了最新一波经济学家调查的结果，该调查自1976年以来大约每十年进行一次（尽管第一波调查的结果完全比不上后面的调查结果）。

Members of the American Economic Association were asked whether they agreed with a number of propositions, ranging from the economic impact of minimum-wage increases to the desirability of universal health insurance.

美国经济协会成员被问及是否同意一些主张，包含提高最低工资对经济的影响，以及全民医疗保险的可取性等。

Based on the frequency of responses, the researchers devised an index that captured the degree of consensus on each question.

根据回答的频率，研究人员设计了一个指数来捕捉每个问题的共识程度。

The results suggest that the extent of consensus has risen significantly.

结果表明，共识的程度明显上升。

Economists were in strong agreement on about a third of the propositions in the latest wave, compared with around 15% in 2011 and less than 10% in 1990.

经济学家对最新一轮经济浪潮中约三分之一的主张持强烈一致意见，而2011年这一比例约为15%，1990年则不到10%。

Respondents were more united on their diagnosis of economic problems.

受访者对经济问题的诊断更加一致。

And, strikingly, more of them were convinced of the need for muscular policy.

而且，令人吃惊的是，他们中更多的人相信有必要采取强硬的政策。

Inequality was a growing concern.

不平等问题日益引起关注。

The share of respondents who wholly or somewhat agreed that the distribution of income in America should be more equal rose from 68% in 2000 to 86% in 2020-21.

完全或部分同意美国收入分配应该更加平等的受访者比例从2000年的68%上升到2020-21年的86%。

Fully 85% thought corporate power was too concentrated.

足足有85%的人认为公司权力过于集中。

Another worry was climate change, which most agreed posed a big risk to the economy.

另一个令人担忧的问题是气候变化，大多数人都认为这对经济构成了很大的威胁。

(Both questions were asked for the first time in the latest wave.)

（这两个问题都是在最新一波中首次提出的。）

Unsurprisingly, given their views on market power, respondents' support for a vigorous use of antitrust policy has increased markedly over the past two decades.

关于受访者对市场力量的看法完全在意料之中，他们对大力使用反垄断政策的支持在过去20年里显著增加。

Another notable change was in the enthusiasm for fiscal activism.

另一个值得注意的变化是对财政激进主义的热情。

More economists thought that the Federal Reserve alone could not manage the business cycle—perhaps consistent with the decline in its policy rate towards zero—and were keener on a bigger role for government.

更多的经济学家认为，仅靠美联储无法管理商业周期——或许与其政策利率降至零的趋势一致——他们更希望让政府发挥更大的作用。

More of them also agreed that fiscal policy could have important economic effects, both during downturns and over the long term.

他们中更多的人还认为，无论是在经济低迷时期还是在长期看来，财政政策都可能产生重要的经济影响。

The dismal science has not become entirely harmonious, though.

然而，这门沉闷的科学并没有变得完全和谐。

Economists were slightly more split on the consequences of lowering income and capital-gains taxes in the latest wave, with roughly half of respondents agreeing with the propositions put to them by the researchers, and the rest disagreeing.

经济学家对最近一轮减税浪潮中降低所得税和资本利得税的后果，看法略有分歧，大约一半的受访者同意研究人员提出的主张，其余的人则不同意。

Enough room, still, for healthy debate.

不过，仍有足够的空间进行有益的辩论。