石油市场失衡引发的后果

Finance & economics

财经版块

Oil

石油

A slippery patch

一个不牢靠的领域

OPEC grapples with a precariously balanced oil market

欧佩克（石油输出国组织）努力扭转失衡的石油市场

Oil and philosophy rarely mix.

石油和哲学很少能混为一谈。

But when David Fyfe of Argus Media, a publisher, calls production quotas set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec) and its allies a "Platonic ideal"—more of a theoretical model than a practical guide—he captures the sense of self-doubt now gripping energy markets.

但当阿格斯传媒的出版商David Fyfe称石油输出国组织(OPEC)及其盟友设定的产量配额是“柏拉图式的理想”——与其说是实践指南，不如说是理论模型——他抓住了目前笼罩着能源市场的自我怀疑的感觉。

Every month since July, the group has agreed to raise its output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).

自7月以来，该组织每月都同意将日产量提高40万桶。

But experts cannot decide whether that is too little or too much—and whether the target means much at all.

但专家们无法决定这是太少还是太多，也不能确定这个目标是否意义重大。

The cartel's latest meeting, on February 2nd, took place against the backdrop of heightened fears about a Russian invasion of Ukraine (Russia, the world's second-biggest oil exporter, is a member of the extended cartel, known as opec+).

2月2日，在对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的担忧加剧的背景下，卡特尔组织召开了最近一次会议（俄罗斯是世界第二大石油出口国，也是被称为欧佩克+的扩大卡特尔组织的成员）。

Only the week before the price of a barrel of Brent crude had spiked above $90, its highest level in seven years.

就在一周前，布伦特（Brent）原油价格还升至每桶90美元以上，达到7年来的最高水平。

The alliance promised to raise output again, by the usual amount.

该联盟承诺再次提高产量，幅度与往常一样。

That calmed markets a bit.

这让市场平静了一些。

The question is what happens next.

问题是接下来会发生什么。

Many Wall Street analysts have lifted their oil-price forecasts for this year above $100 a barrel.

许多华尔街分析师已将今年的油价预期上调至每桶100美元以上。

War in Ukraine, they say, could push it well past $120.

他们说，乌克兰的战争可能会将其推高至120美元以上。

Conflict would probably not physically disrupt supply.

冲突可能不会对供应造成实质性的干扰。

By contrast with the gas it pipes to Europe, Russia mostly exports oil by sea.

与输送到欧洲的天然气不同，俄罗斯主要通过海路出口石油。

Instead, a fear of potential sanctions on trade may set prices ablaze.

相反，对潜在贸易制裁的担忧可能会让价格飙升。

Geopolitics aside, the bull case rests on resurgent demand.

撇开地缘政治不谈，看涨的理由在于需求的复苏。

The International Energy Agency reckons oil consumption will rise from its present level of about 97m bpd to 100m bpd—a return to pre-covid levels—by the end of the year, even before global aviation fully recovers.

国际能源署（IEA）估计，即使在全球航空业完全复苏之前，到今年年底，石油日消费量将从目前的约9700万桶升至1亿桶，恢复到疫情之前的水平。

Damien Courvalin of Goldman Sachs, a bank, says consumers switching to oil from gas (prices for which have been sky-high in Europe) may have boosted demand by up to 1m bpd, leading to "critically low inventory levels".

高盛银行的Damien Courvalin说，消费者从天然气转向石油（在欧洲，天然气的价格一直很高）可能会使需求每天增加高达100万桶，导致“极低的库存水平”。

Supply is tight, too.

供应也很紧张。

Paul Sheldon of s&p Global Platts, a data firm, reckons global spare production capacity is only about 2.6m bpd.

数据公司标普全球普氏能源资讯的保罗谢尔登估计，全球闲置产能仅为每日260万桶左右。

And pledges by opec+ cannot be counted on.

而且欧佩克+的承诺也不能指望。

Many members have struggled to raise output owing both to underinvestment and covid-related bottlenecks.

由于投资不足和与新冠疫情相关的瓶颈，许多成员国难以提高产出。

Bloombergnef, a research firm, notes that in December the club produced 747,000 fewer barrels a day than its quotas allowed.

研究公司Bloombergnef指出，去年12月份，该组织的日产量比其配额少了74.7万桶。

The bear case rests on patience, a Persian restoration and a Permian boom.

看跌的理由在于耐心，波斯的恢复和二叠纪的繁荣。

If Russian exports are not cut off, then the impact of geopolitical tensions should dissipate by the summer.

如果俄罗斯出口没有被切断，那么地缘政治紧张局势的影响应该会在夏季消散。

By then America will probably have raised interest rates, cooling growth and oil demand—just as extra supply from opec+ hits the market.

到那时，美国可能已经提高了利率，冷却了经济增长和石油需求——就像欧佩克+的额外供应冲击市场一样。

A resumption of Iran's nuclear deal, meanwhile, looks likelier than at any point since 2017, when it was torn apart.

与此同时，自2017年伊朗核协议破裂以来，重启该协议的可能性似乎已经达到了最大值。

The associated lifting of sanctions could release another 1m bpd.

与此相关的制裁解除，可能会使石油日产量再增加100万桶。

The real wild card is shale.

真正的不确定性因素是页岩。

Until 2014, when opec orchestrated an oil-price crash, shale drillers raised cheap finance to ramp up output, turning America into the world's biggest producer of oil.

直到2014年，石油输出国组织策划了一场油价崩盘，页岩油开采企业才通过廉价融资来提高产量，从而使美国成为世界上最大的石油生产国。

But investors, who went on to lose perhaps $300bn, are now demanding high returns.

但投资者现在要求的是高回报，他们随后损失了大约3000亿美元。

Oil bosses have talked of stern capital discipline.

石油老板们谈到了严格的资本纪律。

Yet lofty prices are hard to resist.

然而，高昂的价格令人难以抗拒。

Baker Hughes, an oil-services firm, counts 610 active rigs in America in late January, 226 more than a year ago.

贝克休斯是一家石油服务公司，今年1月底在美国有610台钻机在使用，比一年前多出226台。

Bnef predicts output in the Permian basin could rise by as much as 1m bpd by the end of 2023; ExxonMobil, an oil major, plans to increase output there by a quarter this year.

新能源财经（Bnef）预测，到2023年底，二叠纪盆地的日产量可能增加100万桶；石油巨头埃克森美孚计划今年将那里的产量增加四分之一。

As energy philosophers like to say, the best cure for high prices is high prices.

正如能源哲学家喜欢说的那样，解决高价格的最好办法就是高价格。