如何在不破坏欧洲电力市场的情况下度过这个冬天?（上）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Free exchange: Power corrupts

自由交流：电力腐败

How to get through the winter without wrecking Europe’s electricity market

如何在不破坏欧洲电力市场的情况下度过这个冬天

Most people hate fluctuating prices.

大多数人都讨厌价格波动。

When they fall too far, they are seen to be threatening firms.

价格跌得太低时，人们会认为这对公司造成了威胁。

When they rise too high, they are seen to be unjustly enriching them.

价格升得太高时，人们又会认为这是在不法地让公司致富。

But economists look at price movements and see the revelation of crucial information.

但经济学家会观察价格走势，看它揭露的关键信息。

The recent frenzy about interventions in European electricity markets is an especially brutal example of this age-old dynamic.

近期对干预欧洲电力市场的狂热尤其直截了当地展现了这种由来已久的动力。

In recent weeks, forward prices for daytime electricity for the fourth quarter of the year briefly spiked above 1,200 euros ($1,200) per megawatt hour in Germany and above a surreal 2,500 euros in France.

最近几周，德国第四季度的日间远期电价曾短暂飙升至每兆瓦时1200欧元(约合1200美元)以上，法国则突破了2500欧元的离奇水平。

The usual price is around 50 euros.

而往常的价格为50欧元左右。

The reason for this is simple: scarcity.

出现这么大波动的原因很简单：电力紧缺。

The loss of generating capacity to maintenance (in France), closure (in Germany) and drought (across the continent) brought more and more gas plants into action, and their fuel has become extremely expensive since Russia wielded its energy weapon.

受（法国的）核反应堆停机维护、（德国的）核电站关闭以及（整个欧洲大陆的）干旱问题影响，电力产量下滑，促使越来越多的燃气发电厂投入使用，而自从俄罗斯动用其能源武器以来，这些发电厂的燃料已经变得极其昂贵。

Just like in any other market for a homogenous good, the price of power is set by the most expensive supplier.

就像其他同质商品市场一样，电力价格也是由定价最高的供应商决定的。

This means that even power plants with low operating costs, such as nuclear ones or wind farms, receive the high prices that gas plants are charging.

这意味着，即使是运营成本较低的发电厂，如核电站或风力发电场，也能够获得与燃气发电厂要价一样高的收入。

The result is vast profits—and public outrage.

由此，它们就能得到巨额利润--以及公众的愤怒。

Based on forward curves, Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that electricity spending in the EU could rise by more than 800bn euros, an increase worth an astonishing six percentage points of GDP.

摩根士丹利银行根据远期曲线估计，欧盟的电力支出可能会增加8000多亿欧元，相当于GDP的6个百分点，令人震惊。

Thus politicians have started to ask whether a different pricing mechanism is needed.

因此，政客们开始质疑是否需要一种不同的定价机制。

The problem is that designing an electricity market is hard.

问题在于，设计一个电力市场并非易事。

The juice cannot yet be stored at scale, and has to be delivered at the exact moment it is needed.

电力还无法大规模储存，又必须在需要电力的那一刻进行输送。

Producers need to spend a lot of money upfront to build a windmill or power plant, and need to be able to recover it and make a profit over decades.

生产商需要预先花费大量资金来建造风车或发电厂，还需要能够赚回这些资金，并在几十年内盈利。

Climate-changing policies dictate that more and more renewable electricity is fed into the system, despite being mostly at the whim of wind and sunshine.

为响应应对气候变化的政策，越来越多可再生能源电力被输送到该系统中，尽管这些主要是风力发电和太阳能发电。

Europe’s current design is a sequence of markets, some continent-wide, where electricity providers such as power plants meet retail suppliers, large industrial customers and others.

欧洲目前的设计是建立一系列市场，其中一些市场覆盖整个欧洲大陆，让发电厂等电力供应商与零售供应商和大型工业客户等进行接触。

Some deals are made months or even years before electricity is delivered, as suppliers and customers need clarity over revenues and costs.

由于供应商和客户需要明确收入和成本，一些交易在输送电力的数月甚至数年前就已达成。

The reference price for electricity and for the settlement of many long-term agreements is set on the spot market, where the physical delivery of electricity is traded for the next day.

电力和许多长期协议结算的参考价格是在现货市场上确定的，在现货市场上，电力实物交割交易的都是次日的电力。

Suppliers bid according to how much it would cost to provide an extra unit of power, known as its marginal cost.

供应商根据提供额外单位电力的成本（即边际成本）进行投标。

The idea behind this is straightforward.

这背后的想法很简单。

To generate electricity at low cost and in an increasingly carbon-free manner requires a lot of information.

要以低成本和越来越无碳的方式发电，需要大量的信息。

Some technologies, such as nuclear, are good at providing a constant stream of power.

一些技术，如核能发电，擅长提供源源不断的电力。

Gas is good for firing up quickly.

燃气发电能快速发动机器。

Solar is best around lunchtime.

太阳能发电在午餐时间是最好的发电方式。

The marginal price of power provides the information needed to switch between them, by signalling the value of an additional unit of electricity.

通过标明额外单位电力的价值，边际电价能够提供在这些发电技术之间进行切换所需的信息。