韩国楼市的前车之鉴(上)

Home Truths

令人不快的住房真相

South Korea’s housing crunch offers a warning for other countries.

韩国楼市困境为其他国家提供前车之鉴。

"Buying the house in 2021 might be one of the biggest regrets of my life,” says Kim Myung-soo, a 33-year-old whose home in Jamsil, eastern Seoul, has fallen in value by about $400,000.

“在2021年买房可能是我这辈子最后悔的事了。”33岁的金明洙说，他位于首尔东部蚕室区的房子已经贬值了大约40万美元。

His wife is 33 weeks pregnant and Mr Kim does not know how he will repay the mortgage.

他的妻子怀孕33周，而他不知道要如何还清房贷。

He had planned to wait for prices to rise before selling the property to pay off the loan.

他原本计划等房价上涨后再卖掉房子，还清贷款。

Mr Kim is not alone in his worries.

金先生并不是唯一一个对此感到担忧的人。

Across the rich world, property markets look precarious.

在整个富裕世界，房地产市场看起来岌岌可危。

Few are in as bad shape as South Korea’s.

没有多少国家的情况像韩国那样糟糕。

House prices fell by 2% in December alone, the biggest monthly drop since official figures began in 2003.

仅在12月份，房价就下跌了2%，这是自2003年开始发布官方数据以来的最大月度跌幅。

The slump has been particularly brutal for apartments in Seoul: prices are down by 24% since their peak in October 2021.

房价暴跌对首尔的公寓来说尤为残酷：房价从2021年10月的峰值已下跌了24%。

South Korea’s market offers a glimpse of what may lie ahead elsewhere.

韩国楼市让我们得以一窥其他国家楼市的未来。

The Bank of Korea (BOK) began raising interest rates in August 2021, seven months before the Federal Reserve and almost a year ahead of the European Central Bank.

韩国央行于2021年8月开始加息，比美联储早七个月，比欧洲央行早近一年。

The benchmark rate now sits at 3.5%, a 14-year high, after officials raised it once again in January.

官员们在1月份再次上调了基准利率后，基准利率目前为3.5%，为14年来的最高水平。

The broader economy is feeling the pinch.

更大范围的经济正感受到压力。

Private consumption fell by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2022年第四季度，私人消费下降了0.4%。

And exports, which dropped by 17% year-on-year in January, have hardly cushioned the blow.

出口在1月份同比下降17%，也难以减轻这一打击。

They were hit by a collapse in semiconductor orders at the end of a pandemic-era boom in electronics sales.

在大流行时期电子产品销售热潮结束时，半导体订单暴跌，对出口造成了打击。

This sluggishness will only add to the drag on house prices.

这种疲软只会增加对房价的拖累。