钻石值得投资吗?

Finance and economics

财经版块

All that sparkles

钻石钻石亮晶晶

Diomands are forever; their allure to investors might not be.

钻石恒久远，但其投资价值可能并非如此。

The appeal of a diamond, for a ring on a finger or to string on a necklace, rests on its sparkle.

对于手指上的戒指，或脖子上的项链，钻石的魅力在于它的耀眼光彩。

Its precise value is determined by how well the stone is cut, its colour, its size (also called its “carat”) and whether it contains flaws.

钻石的确切价值取决于切割工艺、颜色、大小(也称为“克拉”)以及是否有瑕疵。

The clearer, heavier, closer to colourless and more perfectly cut the rock, the better.

钻石颜色越清透、越重、越接近无色、切割得越完美，价值就越高。

The appeal of a diamond for an investor is that, in addition to being nice to look at, it has historically offered a steady return on investment.

对于投资者，钻石的吸引力在于，除了看起来赏心悦目，钻石一直以来还提供了稳定的投资回报。

Given the opacity of the market, and the broad variety of gems that are available, long-run price data are scarce.

由于市场不透明，以及市面上的钻石种类繁多，长期价格数据很稀缺。

But a paper by Luc Renneboog of Tilburg University, which was published in 2015, analysed thousands of auctions each year, finding that the average return between 1999 and 2012 rivalled those of stocks and property.

但蒂尔堡大学的吕克·伦尼博格于2015年发表的一篇论文分析了每年数千次的拍卖，发现1999年至2012年的钻石平均回报率与股票和房地产的回报率不相上下。

Holders of diamonds would have earned a handsome 8% or so a year.

钻石持有者一年的利润率可以达到可观的8%左右。

Recently, though, these steady returns have given way to enormous volatility.

然而，最近这些稳定的回报已经让位于巨大的波动。

De Beers, a consortium that has long monopolised the supply of diamonds, has reduced the price of two-to-four carat uncut stones—a popular category because they can be made into one-to-two carat engagement rings—by 40%, according to Bloomberg, a news service.

据彭博社报道，长期垄断钻石供应的戴比尔斯财团已经将2至4克拉的未切割钻石（一种很受欢迎的钻石，因为这种钻石可以制成1至2克拉的订婚戒指）降价40%。

On September 13th the company announced that it would re-run its iconic “a diamond is forever” advertising campaign in an attempt to boost demand.

9月13日，该公司宣布将重新启动其标志性的广告“钻石恒久远，一颗永流传”来刺激需求。

Stable returns in the past were partly brought about by steady demand.

过去，钻石的稳定回报在一定程度上是由稳定的需求带来的。

Just as with the investment case for gold, another rare and precious commodity, the logic for holding diamonds tends to be strongest during periods of economic uncertainty.

就像投资黄金（另一种稀有且珍贵的商品）一样，在经济不确定时期，持有钻石的理由往往最强。

At the same time, the main use of diamonds is in jewellery, which means that prices have tended to do well during periods of prosperity, too.

与此同时，钻石的主要用途是珠宝，这意味着在经济繁荣时期，钻石的价格往往也会更高。

But the most important factor was monopolistic supply.

但最重要的因素是垄断性的供应。

For more than a century De Beers managed to dominate the production of gems.

一个多世纪以来，戴比尔斯一直主宰着钻石的生产。

This market structure facilitated steady price increases in two ways, as Mr Renneboog has noted.

正如伦尼博格指出的，这种市场结构在两个方面促进了钻石价格的稳步上涨。

First, by stockpiling supplies De Beers created scarcity.

首先，通过囤货，戴比尔斯制造了稀缺性。

Second, the firm curbed speculation, and the volatility it brings.

其次，该公司遏制了投机行为及其带来的波动性。

Although De Beers controlled some 80% of the global supply of diamonds in the 1980s, since then its share has been eaten into by competitors, which include Alrosa, a Russian rival.

虽然戴比尔斯在20世纪80年代控制了全球约80%的钻石供应，但从那之后，这一份额就被竞争对手蚕食了，其中包括来自俄罗斯的竞争对手阿尔罗萨。

The company now produces just a third of supply.

戴比尔斯现在的产量仅占供应量的三分之一。

Another problem is emerging from laboratories.

另一个问题出现在实验室。

They are producing artificial gems, which are made by applying pressure to carbon, rather than digging stones from the ground, and are identical to the naked eye.

实验室正在生产人造钻石，通过对碳施加压力而不是从地下挖掘来制造钻石，而且肉眼无法区分人造钻石和天然钻石。

Such stones have been available since the 1980s, but even as recently as 2018 made up a tiny fraction of the market, at just a few percentage points.

人造钻石在20世纪80年代就可以买到了，但直到2018年，这类钻石在市场中所占的比例也很小，只有几个百分点。

In the years since, more lab-grown jewels have entered the market—and their market share has risen to around a tenth.

此后的几年里，更多的人造宝石进入了市场，它们的市场份额上升到了大约十分之一。

De Beers may have inadvertently hastened this transition.

戴比尔斯可能无意中加速了这一转变。

The company began to sell lab-grown diamonds at rock-bottom prices in 2018, when such stones fetched about 80% of the price of mined ones.

该公司在2018年开始以最低价出售人造钻石，当时这类钻石的价格约为天然钻石价格的80%。

The goal was to differentiate between the two types of gems, in order to diminish the appeal of lab-grown stones.

这一举动的目的是区分这两种类型的钻石，以降低人造钻石的吸引力。

The Clear Cut, a New York-based purveyor of engagement rings, has adopted guerrilla marketing tactics to make the same point.

总部位于纽约的订婚戒指供应商Clear Cut采取了游击营销策略来表达同样的观点。

It offers customers who buy a ring worth $10,000 or more a free lab-grown alternative, which can be used as a “travel ring” when visiting dubious places.

这家公司为购买价值1万美元及以上戒指的顾客免费赠送一个人造钻石替代品，当要去不太安全的地方时，可以把替代品用作“旅行戒指”。

Many lab-grown stones now fetch just 20-30% of the price of similar mined stones.

现在许多人造钻石的价格只有天然钻石的20%-30%。

De Beers argues that, as the supply of lab-grown gems accelerates, the price gap between the two types of stone will continue to widen, making the newcomers unappealing for engagements.

戴比尔斯认为，随着人造钻石的供应加速，这两种钻石之间的价格差距将继续扩大，让新出现的人造钻石对订婚者失去吸引力。

If recent price movements are anything to go by, though, the tactic appears likely to backfire—after all, mined prices are plunging in the wake of lab-grown ones.

然而，根据最近的价格走势看，这一策略可能适得其反，毕竟出现了人造钻石之后，天然钻石的价格正在暴跌。

Admittedly, this may not be entirely the result of a structural shift in the market.

诚然，这可能并不完全是市场结构性转变的结果。

American couples date for about three years before getting engaged, and thanks to covid-19 very few people were out and about meeting potential husbands or wives in 2020.

美国情侣大约交往三年后才会订婚，又因为新冠肺炎，2020年很少有人会外出，与自己可能的未来丈夫或妻子相遇。

An unusually small number of people are probably getting engaged this year.

因此今年订婚的人可能会异常少。

But this is the sort of fluctuation an all-powerful diamond cartel would have been able to smooth out by reducing supply.

但对于这种波动，这个一手遮天的钻石卡特尔可以通过减少供应来将其抚平。

Slashing prices instead is a clear indication of diminished market power.

大幅降价反而是市场力量减弱的明显迹象。

That is good news for those looking to pop the question or acquire a new trinket.

对于那些想求婚或购买新饰品的人来说，这是个好消息。

It is rather less appealing for those considering investing in the gems.

对于那些考虑投资钻石的人来说，钻石反而变得没那么有吸引力了。