VOA常速英语:塔利班的懦弱领导可能成为和平的转机

In Kabul and other cities in Afghanistan, a wave of suicide attacks continues to exact a brutal toll.
在阿富汗的喀布尔及其他城市，一波残忍的自杀式袭击使伤亡人数不断上升。

“The killing and maiming of thousands of Afghan civilians is deeply heroin and largely preventable.”
“对成千上万的阿富汗公民的杀害和伤害是真正的毒品，但大部分是可以阻止的。”

Yet despite the violents, some analysts say there are opportunities for peace.
尽管有这么多的暴力事件，一些分析家说和平还是有希望的。

A new study based on dozens of interviews with Taliban insiders suggests exploiting fractures within the group, professor Theo Farrell is co-author of the report.
基于对许多塔利班内部人员进行采访的一项新的研究表明，要发掘组织内部的裂缝。西奥.法瑞尔教授是这份报告的合著者。

Senior commanders who were, in a sense, using suicide attacks to build up their reputation.So there are large parts of the Taliban that are fully committed to the fight,but there is a potential here, nonetheless, to de-escalate the conflict."
“从某种意义上说，高级指挥官们正在利用自杀袭击来树立他们的声望。因此，有很大一部分塔利班完全致力于战斗，但尽管如此，还是有逐步缩小冲突规模的可能性。”

That potential, according to Farrell, lies in the weakness of the Taliban’s leadership.
法瑞尔说，这个可能性就在于塔利班的懦弱领导。

“The newer mayor, Haibatullah Akhundzada, is widely seen as a ‘weak and divisive leader’.Many of our interviewees referred to him simply as a symbolic leader.The real power in the Taliban lies elsewhere.And so, therefore, there is a view among the rank and file that, effectively, the movement has become leaderless."
“新市长，Haibatullah Akhundzada，被广泛认为是一个‘软弱的、引起分裂的领袖’。我们的很多受访者提到他时都说他只是一个象征性的领导。塔利班的真正实权在别处。因此，普通成员之间实际上流传着这样一个说法，即这项行动变成了无领袖的。”

Informal peace talks have taken place between the government and the Taliban leadership.But, senior Taliban commanders have demanded that the 13,000 NATO-led foreign troops in Afghanistan withdraw before formal talks begin.
政府和塔利班领袖之间已经进行了几次非正式的和平谈判。但是，塔利班高级指挥官们要求将北约带领的一万三千名外国部队撤出阿富汗之后，才能开始正式谈判。

Speaking in December, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani blamed the continuing bloodshed on Pakistan for failing to take on militant groups in its territory,a charge denied by Islamabad.
阿富汗总统艾什勒弗.贾尼在十二月的讲话中，将持续不断的杀戮归罪于巴基斯坦没能在自己的领土范围内处理激进组织，伊斯兰堡否认了这项指控。

And some still provide sanctuary in support or tolerate these networks.As Mr. Kakazada, one of the key figures in the Taliban movement, recently said,If they did not have sanctuary in Pakistan, they would not last a month.’"
“有些地方仍然提供避难所，以支持或容忍这些组织。正如塔利班行动中的主要人物之一Kakazada先生最近说的那样，‘如果他们在巴基斯坦没有避难所，他们连一个月都坚持不下去’。”

Farrell argues the senior Taliban leadership should be circumvented,enabling dissenting commanders to meet and forge a common purpose of ending the conflict.
法瑞尔争论说塔利班的高级领袖能够被诱捕，通过使持异议的指挥官们会见，并伪造出一个结束战斗的共同目标，就能够实现。

Henry Ridgwell, for VOA news, London.
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