赖斯国务卿重返中东挽救以巴和谈

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U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is back in the Middle East this week, meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders in a bid to try and prevent Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from collapsing. Three months after a U.S. brokered Mideast Peace Conference, the issue of Gaza has now intruded into the talks, complicating the negotiations.

美国国务卿赖斯本星期重返中东，会见以色列和巴勒斯坦领导人，试图防止以色列和巴勒斯坦的和平谈判破裂。美国斡旋的中东和平会议结束3个月后，加沙问题又成为和谈议题，使得谈判复杂化。

Secretary Rice's most immediate task will be to restart the peace talks, which have been suspended by the Palestinians. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas pulled out of the talks this week, after more than 100 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip -- during operations to stop Palestinian militants from firing rockets at southern Israel.

赖斯国务卿最紧迫的任务就是重新启动和平谈判，因为和谈被巴勒斯坦方面停止。在以色列制止巴勒斯坦军事组织向以色列南部发射火箭的行动中，一百多名巴勒斯坦人被以色列军队在加沙地带打死，在此之后，巴勒斯坦领导人阿巴斯这个星期退出了和谈。

Yossi Alpher, the co-editor of Bitterlemons.org, a web-based periodical devoted to Mideast conflict resolution issues says Secretary Rice might be able to achieve that limited goal - but the question remains, are Israelis and Palestinians making any real progress aimed at resolving their conflict.

探讨中东冲突解决方案的网上杂志--苦瓜的编辑埃尔弗尔说，赖斯国务卿可能会达到有限的目标，但是问题仍然没有解决，那就是，以色列和巴勒斯坦在结束冲突方面是否真正取得了任何进展。

"If the only purpose of her visit is to get the peace talks happening again, and assuming as I do that we will probably be witnessing a de-escalation in and around Gaza in the coming days then she may be able before she leaves to say she has succeeded in doing that," said Alpher. "But that is to my mind not a particularly triumphant accomplishment. The real question is, are these peace talks capable of leading to a viable agreement, and where are we heading with Gaza."

埃尔弗尔说：“如果她访问的唯一目的是让和谈重新开始，我估计我们可能会看到几天之内加沙局势有所缓和，那么她在离开前可能会说，她在这方面成功了。然而，这在我的心目中算不上一个特别值得庆贺的成果。真正的问题是，这些和谈能不能带来一个可行的协议，同时还有加沙向何处去的问题。”

Since they met last year at Annapolis, Maryland and pledged to reach a peace deal by the end of this year, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas have held several rounds of talks. By all accounts the meetings are warm and cordial. But Palestinians are becoming increasingly vocal in their complaints that Israel is stalling on key issues that need to be resolved if any progress is to be made.

以巴领导人自从去年11月在马里兰首府安纳波利斯的和平会议上保证在今年年底前达成一个和平协议以来，以色列总理奥尔默特和巴勒斯坦领导人阿巴斯举行了数轮谈判。这些谈判不论怎么说都是热烈和诚挚的。但是巴勒斯坦方面越来越大声地发出他们的抱怨，说以色列在一些关键问题上拖延，如果要取得任何进展，这些问题都需要得到解决。

Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki recently noted that so far the talks have not changed anything on the ground for Palestinians in the West Bank.

巴勒斯坦外长利亚德.马勒基最近注意到，谈判到迄今为之没有给约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦人的处境带来任何改变。

"Not one single roadblock was lifted. The Israeli settlement policies did not stop," he said. "Israel continues to confiscate Palestinian land and continue its settlement projects; continues to destroy Palestinian homes; and the killing of Palestinian individuals - that did not stop."

马勒基说：“没有一个路障被清除，以色列人的定居政策没有停止。以色列继续夺取巴勒斯坦土地，并继续建立定居点，继续破坏巴勒斯坦人的家园，杀害巴勒斯坦人的个案也从没有停止过。”

For their part, Israeli officials say there has been progress but the talks are secret and little can be divulged. Aryeh Mekel of Israel's Foreign Ministry cautions patience, but also says Israel too has reasons to complain.

以色列官员说，他们认为已经取得了一些进展，但是谈判是秘密进行的，因此不能向外透露什么信息。以色列外交部发言人梅克尔说，要有耐心，但是他表示，以色列也有理由抱怨。

"The core issues of the conflict have not been dealt with for eight years, now these issues are being revisited and we are starting to make progress," said Mekel. "So a lot has been done. You know the Palestinians really have to decide - you can sit there and complain all the time and be unhappy about everything, but doing that will there ever be a Palestinian state? No. We could have stopped the negotiations when the Qassam rockets did not stop but we did not do that. We are continuing and we think both sides should try and make progress - otherwise we will never solve the conflict."

梅克尔说：“冲突的核心问题8年来从来都没有触及到，现在这些问题又出现了，我们开始取得进展。有很多问题得到了解决。问题是巴勒斯坦人真的需要做出决定，因为你可以坐在那里整天抱怨，对什么都不满，但是那么做就会冒出一个巴勒斯坦国吗？不会的。我们可以在卡桑火箭继续袭击的时候停止谈判，但是我们没有那样做。我们还是继续努力，我们认为双方都应该努力促成进展，否则我们永远也不能解决冲突。”

Hanging over the talks is the issue of Gaza. Even if progress is eventually made between Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas, both men will still have to deal with Hamas militants who control the Gaza Strip.

和平谈判悬而未决的就是加沙问题。既使奥尔默特和阿巴斯之间最终取得进展，双方仍然要面对控制加沙地带的哈马斯军事组织的问题。

Yossi Alpher of Bitterlemons.org says the issue of Gaza could still derail the talks, and for now there is little Israeli officials can do about it, except to hope that Mr. Abbas might be able to bring Gaza along in any eventual peace deal with Israel.

"The Olmert government understands that if we move into Gaza, if we reoccupy Gaza, it could be the end of the peace process," said Alpher. "It does not want that to happen. It does not have a solid exact strategy and it does not want to negotiate a long term cease-fire with Hamas."

"So it [Olmert government] does what is necessary in order to strike back and try and deter Hamas, but it does not appear to have any long term strategy for dealing with Hamas in Gaza -- other than the hope that somehow the negotiations with the Palestinians in the West Bank will succeed, and that will take care of everybody's Gaza problem. That I say is a real long shot," he added.

Even if the problems in Gaza do not derail the current talks between Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas, Yossi Alpher says both men have yet to prove they are capable of taking the risks or making the sacrifices necessary for the peace process to be a success. He says now both men have a limited amount of time to show progress before the violence in Gaza overwhelms the fragile peace process begun last year at the Annapolis conference.

中东问题网上杂志编辑埃尔弗尔说，既使奥尔默特和阿巴斯之间的谈判没有被加沙问题拖垮，这两位领导人尚未证明他们有能力甘冒风险，或者愿意为和平进程的最终成功做出必要的牺牲。他说，在加沙的暴力摧毁去年安纳波利斯会议开始的脆弱和平进程之前，他们两人只有有限的时间来取得进展。