全世界食品供不应求价格急剧上涨

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In recent months, prices for basic foods have risen dramatically in many parts of the world, adding to the misery of impoverished regions and straining the budgets of families across the globe. A complex set of factors is causing global demand for food to outstrip supply, and experts warn that, absent swift action, the situation may get even worse.

在世界上许多地方，基本必需食品的价格在最近几个月里急剧上涨，不仅增加了世界各地贫困地区的痛苦，也使世界各地家庭的经济开支变得更加紧张。一系列复杂的因素造成世界食品供不应求。有专家警告说，如果不迅速采取措施的话，情况将有可能变得更加糟糕。

Recent weeks have seen Philippine authorities scramble to augment rice stocks in the country, Indonesian officials warn of possible social unrest due to skyrocketing prices for basic foodstuffs, irate Egyptians protesting bread shortages, and international food aid programs unable to buy enough goods to meet their food distribution targets for vulnerable populations.

在最近的几个星期里，菲律宾当局正努力寻求增加大米储存量。印度尼西亚官员警告飞速上涨的基本食品价格会引发社会动荡。处于愤怒中的埃及人抗议面包的短缺，国际食品援助项目无法购买足够的货物，以达到他们为弱势群体提供的食品数量的目标。

These cases should not be viewed as isolated anomalies, but rather as indicators of a global phenomenon, according to Lester Brown of the Washington-based Earth Policy Institute.

设在华盛顿的地球政策研究所的莱斯特.布朗说，上述的这些情况并不是个别的异常现象，而应该被视为一种全球现象的指标。

"In seven of the last eight years, world grain production has fallen short of consumption," he said. "We have been pulling down world grain stocks until now they are at the lowest level in 34 years."

布朗说：“在过去的8年里，世界粮食产量有7年都不能满足消费者的需求。世界粮食储存量一直在下降，到目前为止，粮食存储量已经降到34年来的最低点。”

Experts say several factors are to blame: a growing world population, under-investment in agriculture technology, high petroleum prices, housing and business development crowding out farmlands, droughts and floods made more severe by climate change, and demand for a limited supply of fresh water.

专家们说，有几个因素是导致这种现象的原因：世界上不断增长的人口数量、农业科技方面投入的资金不足、石油价格过高、住房和经济的发展使农业耕地减少、气候变化导致的干旱和洪水、以及有限的洁净水无法满足需求。

In addition, grains like corn once grown exclusively to feed humans and livestock are now being diverted into programs to generate ethanol and other so-called "biofuels" as an alternative to oil and gasoline. With oil prices rising steeply in recent years, the economic incentive to produce grain-based fuels has risen as well.

另外，像玉米之类的粮食曾经只是用来供人类和牲畜食用，但是，现在玉米却被用于其他项目，用来制造酒精和其他所谓的“生物燃料”，作为石油和汽油的替代品。由于石油价格在最近几年里飞速上涨，生产以粮食为原料的燃料的经济诱因也随之增长。

Taken together, these factors have led to growing food shortages and rising prices that could spell disaster for the world's poor people, according to Lester Brown.

这些因素综合起来就导致了食品的持续短缺和物价的持续上涨。布朗说，这会给世界上的贫穷人口带来灾难。

"People on the lower rungs of the global economic ladder are barely hanging on [surviving], and as food prices rise, many are simply losing their grip and beginning to fall off," he added. "And what we are looking at, in the absence of a major intervention, is a very substantial increase in hunger in the world, in mortality rates."

布朗说：“在全球经济这个阶梯上，站在梯子下层的人们仅仅能够满足生存的需要，由于食品价格的上涨，一些人便站不住了，于是他们开始从梯子上摔下去。我们看到的是，在缺乏主要干预的情况下，世界上饥饿情况急剧增加和人口死亡率的大幅度上升。”

For the past two years, Australia's wheat harvest has been lowered by drought. Experts note that Australia is one of many wheat suppliers to the global marketplace. But they add that, given the tightness in world grain stocks, any production shortfall in virtually any country spells trouble far beyond its borders.

在过去的两年里，澳大利亚因干旱原因导致小麦产量下降。专家指出，在全球市场上，澳大利亚是许多小麦供应国之一。但是，他们还说，由于世界粮食储存量紧张，任何国家粮食产量不足实际上都会给世界其他国家造成麻烦。

Siwa Msangi, a research fellow at the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute, says the margin for error in global food production has been virtually eliminated.

设在华盛顿的国际食物政策研究所的研究员姆桑吉说，全球食品产量的误差实际上已经消失了。

"The margins have shrunk and they are shrinking fast," he explained. "So if one country stumbles, you are going to feel the prices on the markets immediately."

姆桑吉说：“全球食品产量的误差已经减小，而且减小的速度很快。因此，如果一个国家的粮食产量有问题的话，你就会立刻感觉到市场物价的上涨。”

Msangi, originally from Tanzania, has a set of policy recommendations for governments around the world: invest more in agriculture technology to boost crop yields, address climate change and environmental issues, improve water management, carefully consider the impact of biofuels on world food stocks, and resist the temptation to enact counter-productive measures to artificially lower food prices.

姆桑吉的祖籍是坦桑尼亚，他为世界各国政府提供了一套政策建议：在农业科技方面投入更多的资金以促进农作物的生产，注重气候变化和环境问题，改善水资源管理，认真考虑生物燃料对世界食品储存的影响，以及抵制运用反生产方法人为地降低食品价格的诱惑。

Msangi notes that leaders in Zimbabwe and Venezuela have recently ordered price controls in response to soaring food costs, and says the efforts are making a bad situation worse.

姆桑吉指出，津巴布韦和委内瑞拉的领导人们最近下令控制价格，以应付食品价格的飞速上涨。他说，这种措施使现有状况变得更加糟糕。

"That is a knee-jerk reaction that a lot of countries take," he explained. "Instead of producers getting the signal that prices are going up and that they should produce more [food], it actually works against some of the responses that you want the food system to undertake when it is faced with high prices."

姆桑吉说：“许多国家都采取了这种本能的反应。如果价格上涨的话，生产者应该生产更多的粮食。可是生产者没有得到这种信号。实际的情况是，在高价格的情况下，生产者的实际反应正好与此相反。”

How high will global food prices get? Msangi says no one knows for sure, but he fears they may rise even higher in coming years.

全球食品价格究竟能上涨到多高呢？姆桑吉说，没有人知道确切的答案，但是他担心，食品的价格将在未来几年里继续上涨。

He says, not only does the world's population continue to grow, but consumers in countries like China and India that are experiencing rapid economic growth are changing their diets as incomes rise: demanding more high-protein food that require large amounts of grain to produce. In other words, not only are there more mouths to feed, but satisfying each mouth is placing ever-higher demands on world food stocks.

他说，不仅是世界人口在持续增长，而且像中国和印度等国家的消费者们正在经历着经济的快速发展。随着收入的增加，他们的饮食也在发生变化。他们需要更多的含有高蛋白的食品，而制造这些食品又需要大量的粮食，换句话说，我们不仅仅是要满足更多人口的温饱，还要让每个人满意他们的食品，这就为世界食品的储存提出了更高的要求。