主食价格高涨正伤害印尼贫困人口

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大米和其他基本食品价格的飙升在很多亚洲国家都引发了安全上的关注。在印度尼西亚，一些主食价格高涨正在伤害贫困人口，而且使人们更加担心因此而出现社会动乱。

Iwan, 40, has been selling noodles on the streets of Jakarta for more than 10 years. Although poor, he has been able to take care of his family with this small business.

40岁的伊万10多年来一直在雅加达的街头出售面条。尽管贫穷，他的这个小生意使他能够养活一家人。

But, with the soaring rise in the price of basic food staples such as cooking oil, rice and soybeans, Iwan is no longer able to make a profit and fears soon he will not be able to feed his family.

但是，随着食用油、大米和大豆这些基本的主食价格的飙升，伊万现在没钱可赚。他担心很快他就不能给家人提供糊口的东西了。

"It is only now that I find it difficult to buy oil for cooking," said Iwan. "It is hard to find and the price is too high. I must raise the price of my noodles to make a profit, but if I raise the price of the noodles, no one will buy them."

伊万说：“只是现在我发现很难买到食用油，很难找到食用油，而且价格也太高了。我必须提高我的面条价格才有利可图，但是如果我提高面条的价格，就没有人会买了。”

According to government statistics, in the past year cooking oil has risen nearly 40 percent, rice is up 25 percent and tofu, a staple of the Indonesian diet, has gone up by 50 percent.

根据政府的统计数字，在过去一年时间里，食用油的价格上涨了将近40%，大米涨价了25%，印尼饮食中的主要食品豆腐的价格上涨了50%。

Bayu Krisnamurti, the deputy minister for agriculture, says the government is concerned the high price of basic commodities has the capability of fueling social unrest, similar to the 1965 coup that led to the rise of the dictator Suharto and the 1998 protests that toppled the former president.

印尼农业部副部长巴尤.克里斯纳穆尔迪说，政府担心，基本商品价格的高涨会引发类似于1965年和1998年发生的社会动乱。1965年的军事政变导致独裁者苏哈托上台，而1998年的抗议活动推翻了苏哈托的统治。

"We are worried. In 1965 we faced a very, very depressing situation to make social unrest," said Krisnamurti. "Even in a more recent history, in 1998, it's also a similar situation. We do hope that 2008 is not another situation like that because the cost to the economy is too high."

他说：“我们感到担心。在1965年，我们当时面临一个导致社会动乱的非常糟糕的局面。在更近一点的1998年，情况也差不多。我们衷心希望2008年不会再次出现这种情况，因为经济代价太高了。”

Sensitive to price-related unrest, the government continues to spend about 35 percent of its entire budget on fuel and electricity subsidies to keep those commodities affordable for the poor.

In January, the government was forced to cut import taxes for soybeans after thousands of people took to the streets in protest over rising costs. Last week, hundreds held demonstrations in Jakarta to demand the government bring down food prices.

今年1月，在数以千计的民众走上街头抗议价格上涨之后，印尼政府被迫削减大豆的进口税。上个星期，几百人在雅加达举行示威，要求政府把食品价格降下来。

The World Bank estimates about half of Indonesia's population of 220 million lives in poverty, on around $2 a day.

世界银行估计，印尼2亿2千万人口中大约一半人生活在贫困之中，每天的生活费不到两美元。

The rising cost of food has raised concerns even more people will slip into poverty.

食品价格的上涨使人担心，甚至有更多的人会陷入贫困。

Agricultural analyst H.S. Dillon says this is a recipe for disaster.

农业分析师迪隆说，这无疑会导致灾难的发生。

"What is the prognosis? High food prices amidst poverty? I see nothing and I don't have a crystal ball, I see nothing but social unrest," said Dillon.

他说：“现在的预测是什么？贫困再加上高食品价格？我没有一个能够预卜未来的水晶球，除了社会动乱之外，我看不到任何其他的东西。”

High food and energy prices are also starting to fuel inflation, which held to a 16-month high in February of 7.4 percent, above the country's full-year target of six percent.

高食品和高能源价格也开始引发通货膨胀。在2月份，通货膨胀率达到7.4%，是16个月来的新高，超过了政府对全年所设的6%的控制目标。

Economists say the inflation rate will likely increase in the coming months, reducing the room for the central bank to cut interest rates to spur economic growth.

经济学家表示，通货膨胀率在今后几个月可能还会上升，从而减少了中央银行通过削减利率来刺激经济增长的空间。

Some intrepid Indonesians, like Hamid, have found a way around the problem.

一些勇敢的印尼人，像哈米德，找到了一个绕过食品价格上涨这个问题的解决办法。

He continues to sell the popular fried snack, tempe, made out of fermented soybeans, on a noisy, congested street in Jakarta. He still makes a small profit.

他继续在雅加达一条喧闹和拥挤的街道上出售很受欢迎的油炸小吃--以发酵的大豆做成的豆豉糕。他仍然能够赚到一点钱。

"I do not want to raise my prices but I still need to make a profit, so now I just make my pieces of tempe smaller," said Hamid.

他说：“我不想提价，但是我仍然需要有钱可赚，所以现在我就把我的豆豉糕做得小一点。”

And, with the higher inflation, slower growth and tougher times for exporters in Asia after world oil prices hit new highs and the dollar plunged last week, it is unlikely food prices are going to improve any time soon.

随着通货膨胀的上涨、经济增长的减缓以及世界石油价格攀升到新高使亚洲的出口商面临更为艰难的境况，再加上美元的贬值，食品价格很快得到改善看来是不可能的。