亚洲股市受美国经济影响跌多升少

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Japan's Nikkei Index rose for the third straight day following gains overnight on Wall Street and a week of fluctuation amid global worries about a possible U.S. recession. Financial analysts say concern is steadily growing among investors and officials in Asia about just how damaging the predicted recession will be.

由于担心美国经济有可能陷入衰退，全球股市这个星期颇具动荡。华尔街股市星期四晚间开始回升后，日本日经指数连续第三天上扬。但是，金融分析人士表示，亚洲投资者和各国政府官员对预测中的美国经济衰退的严重程度越来越感到担心。

It has been a very volatile week for global stocks. At its low points, China's main stock index in Shanghai dropped to its lowest level in nine months, share prices in Hong Kong and Japan both witnessed plummets of more than three-percent, and the dollar continued to hit below that psychological 100-yen mark.
　

对全球股市来说，这是一个极为动荡不安的一周。中国上证综合指数一度跌到9个月来的最低点，香港、日本的股市也猛跌了3个多百分点，美元继续走低，对日圆汇率跌破100日圆的心理大关。

There were also short-lived surges. Stocks in Asia rallied on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 75 basis points and two heavyweight U.S. investment banks, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected results.

美联储星期三宣布再度降息75个基点。此外，美国两家投资银行巨头-雷曼兄弟和高盛公布他们的业绩优于预期。此后，亚洲股市星期三开始回升。

But analysts say expectations of continued decline in the U.S. economy are likely to cause a further deterioration of market value because investors in Asia are expecting a possible U.S. recession to last a long time.

但是，分析人士表示，亚洲的投资者预计，美国的经济衰退会持续很长一段时间，因此，对美国经济持续衰落的预期，有可能导致市场价格的下跌。

Chris Leung, a senior Asia Economist with the bank DBS in Hong Kong, says investors and officials in Asia are worried about what impact a U.S. recession can have on inflationary pressure in the region.

香港的星展银行的亚洲经济师梁兆基表示，亚洲投资者和官员担心的是，美国经济衰退对这一地区的通货膨胀压力会产生哪些影响。

"Because the persistent weakness is making everything expensive and Asia central banks' interest rate is mostly tied up with the U.S.," he said. "So when U.S. interest rate goes down, Asia central banks have to follow despite rising inflationary pressure."

梁兆基说：“由于美国经济持续走软，使得什么东西都很昂贵，由于亚洲各中央银行的利率大多与美元挂钩，因此，虽然通货膨胀的压力在不断提高，当美国利率下调时，亚洲各中央银行也不得不跟着下调。”

Low interest rates can accelerate inflation because companies and consumers are willing to spend more and take on more debt when rates are low.

低利率有可能加速通货膨胀，因为公司和消费者愿意加大消费，而且在利率低的时候增加借贷。

Leung says Asia could see a slowdown in real growth in economic activities, most likely in the external trade sector. He says if a U.S. recession becomes real, officials in Asia are going to have to find the right balance between growth acceleration and inflation.

梁兆基指出，在经济活动方面，亚洲实质增长会放慢，而且很有可能是在对外贸易领域。他说，美国经济一旦进入衰退，亚洲国家就要在经济增长和通货膨胀之间寻找正确的平衡。

"If you believe the U.S. is going to weaken a lot further from now, then… the ultimate impact will be inflationary, because of dramatic slowdown in new economic activities," said Leung. "But on the other hand, if you think that the U.S. dollar has a lot more to fall from the current level, then everything priced in U.S. dollar in this part of the world will become even more expensive."

梁兆基说：“如果你认为美国从现在开始将会进一步经济疲软，那么在新的经济活动会急速放慢，最终的结果就会是通货膨胀。但是，如果你认为美元价格还会从目前的水平继续下滑，那么，在这个地区，凡是以美元标价的东西就会变得越来越贵。”

Leung says he believes the U.S. is already in the early stages of recession, and that it could last up to two years.

梁兆基说，他认为，美国已经处于经济萧条的早期阶段，而且这个阶段有可能持续两年之久。

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve announced emergency measures to ease the liquidity crisis in credit markets. The banking system crisis in the U.S. largely began after subprime mortgages were made to homebuyers with poor credit records. Many of them now are struggling to pay their debts because interest rates rose and property values fell.

本星期早些时候，美联储宣布采取紧急措施，以缓解信贷市场的流动资产危机。美国银行系统危机主要是在向有不良信贷记录的购房者提供次级放贷后开始的，由于利率上涨，房地产价格下跌，其中很多购房者正在艰难地偿付他们所欠的债务。

Japan's Nikkei Index closed less than one percent higher Friday. Most Asian stock markets are closed through Monday for holiday.

日本日经指数星期五以上升不到一个百分点收盘。亚洲大多数股票市场因假期闭市，星期一才开盘。