中国制造商生存环境严峻面临挑战

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The world's factory is giving notice: it can no longer provide the planet with cheap goods. Chinese manufacturers say higher production costs, tighter credit and a strengthening yuan are squeezing margins. Some industry experts and economists predict thousands of small factories could shut down this year and leave thousands of workers jobless - creating new problems for China.

中国这个世界工厂已发出警告，无法继续向全球提供廉价商品。中国制造商说，制造成本的增加、信贷紧缩以及人民币升值都减少了企业的利润。一些产业专家和经济学家预测，数以千计的小型工厂可能在今年倒闭，导致大量工人失业，为中国带来新的问题。

At the China Sourcing Electronics Fair in Hong Kong this month, buyers from all over the world check out Chinese products, from antennas to video game consoles.

在香港举办的中国电子供应商展销会上，来自世界各地的购货商在这里选购中国产品，包括天线和电视游乐器主机等。

But if they like what they see here, buyers will have to pay more than they did a year ago.

但是如果他们看中了什么产品，就必须支付比去年更高的价钱。

One sales manager says it is hard to make a living nowadays as an exporter. Ms. Tang works for a company that makes remote controls in Shenzhen in southern China.

销售经理唐女士表示，作为一名出口商，现在实在很难生存。唐女士工作的公司位于深圳，专门生产遥控器。

"The cost of the finished product is increasing…. And our profit is becoming smaller and smaller," she explained.

她说：“制造成本在增加，而我们的利润越来越少。”

A triple whammy is hitting Chinese manufacturers: rising costs, a strengthening Chinese currency, and a tightening credit market.

中国制造商受到三方面的冲击：攀升的成本、人民币升值以及信贷紧缩。

The Federation of Hong Kong Industries predicts that rising costs will force as many as 14,000 Hong Kong-run factories in southern China to shut down this year. A similar number could close next year.

香港工业联合会预测，成本增加将迫使香港公司在中国南部大约1万4千家工厂于今年内关闭。明年也可能有相同数目的厂家关门。

The federation says operating costs have gone up more than 20 percent. Labor rose more than 20 percent, in part because of a new law that makes it harder for companies to hire temporary workers and requires factory owners to pay benefits.

该联合会说，营运成本上升了将近20%，劳动成本的上涨幅度超过20%，部分原因是由于新法律使公司难以雇用短期工人，并要求工厂老板承担福利支出。

Pansy Yau is the deputy chief economist of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

邱丽萍是香港贸易发展局的副首席经济师。

"For example some toy manufacturers they told me … profit as low as five percent is already very good. Now the renminbi [yuan] appreciated against the dollar 15 percent. How many manufacturers can survive?" Yau said.

她说：“例如，有些玩具制造商告诉我，能有4%的利润已经算很好了。现在人民币对美元已经升值15%，有多少制造商能够生存下去？”

All this is happening as China's main customer - the United States - is on the verge of a recession, and demand for Chinese exports is expected to decline.

而这些都是因为中国最大的主顾美国正处于经济衰退边缘，而对中国出口品的需求预计将会减少。

Last week, the dollar fell below seven yuan, the lowest since China ended the yuan's peg to the dollar in 2005. This makes Chinese exports more expensive for U.S. consumers.

上周，1美元兑换低于7块人民币，是自2005年中国停止人民币紧钉美元之后的最低汇率。对美国消费者而言，这让中国出口商品变贵了。

The United States and other countries have consistently called on Beijing to let the yuan appreciate and say China's managed exchange rate contributes to their large trade deficits with the country.

Exporters also face high interest rates and a tight credit market because of government efforts to cut inflation and slow China's galloping economy.

出口商同时面对高涨的利率以及紧缩的信用市场。这些是中国政府为了解决通货膨胀并且减缓中国经济过热所采取的政策。

David Kiang is vice president of Shenzhen Ping An Bank. He says new limits on bank lending have forced some companies to borrow from underground money lenders - who charge three percent interest a month, or 40 percent a year.

David江是深圳平安银行的副总经理。他说，针对银行借贷的新规定迫使一些公司转向地下钱庄借钱，而这些地下钱庄收取一个月3%或40%的利息。

He says that hurts smaller companies.

伤害了小型企业。

"How many could afford 40 percent interest rate? Very few," he noted. "If this scenario would continue longer, something has to break. It's not the state enterprises because they can turn to the big banks for support, but the small and medium-sized companies get squeezed."

他说：“有多少公司能够负担40%的利率？非常少。如果这种情况持续下去，一定有人撑不住。将不会是国营企业，因为他们可以请求大银行的协助，但中小企业则压力非常大。”

Though exporters are raising prices, they say they can not charge too much for fear of losing business. A survey of more than 300 exporters by trade show organizer Global Sources showed most will keep increases at five percent or below.

即使出口商提高了售价，却也不敢提高太多，因为担心失去生意。由商展主办单位“环球资源”针对超过300名出口商所做的调查显示，大部分的厂商将维持约15%或更少的涨幅。

A sales representative of a company that makes machine switches says buyers are balking at higher price tags.

香港贸易发展局的邱丽萍表示，想生存下去的厂商必须转而生产售价较为昂贵的产品，并且提高工厂的自动化。

"We can just raise our price a little," he said. "Though the materials are expensive, though workers are expensive but we should have more business. The price can't just rise at the same level."

Yau at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council says companies will have to move toward making more expensive goods and automate their factories if they want to survive.

But some foreign factory owners in China have already thrown in the towel, moving to Vietnam.

某些在中国的外国厂商已经放弃，将工厂搬去越南。

Kiang says the situation could create more problems for the Chinese government.

江先生说这样的情况将为中国政府制造更多问题。

"If these companies are moving to other places, I think the unemployment problem in China will be more acute," Kiang said. "The Chinese government on one hand should be concerned about inflation and protect the labor force but at the same time it has to do it in a way, at a speed of implementation such that it allows these manufacturing companies time to adjust, otherwise it could result in some dislocation."

他说：“如果这些公司都搬去其他地方，我想在中国的失业问题将更加严重。中国一方面固然应当关心通货膨胀与劳工权益，但同时应该循序渐进，让制造商有时间去适应，不然将会造成工厂迁离。”

Economists say as China faces a tough balancing act. It has been letting the yuan appreciate and cutting lending to control inflation, because rapidly rising prices could bring protesters to the streets. On the other hand, China needs to avoid squeezing exporters too hard, because they provide crucial jobs in a country with tens of millions of unemployed workers.

经济学家说，中国面临严峻政策平衡问题。中国一方面让人民币升值，并且减少借贷，藉此来控制通货膨胀，因为快速的物价上涨会导致人们抗议示威。但另一方面，中国必须避免给出口企业过大的压力，因为这些企业提供了中国国内数以百万计的失业人口的工作机会。