亚洲各国面临通胀高财政吃紧压力

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Rising inflation is putting pressure on governments all over Asia, as angry citizens protest spiraling food and fuel costs and politicians bicker over how to handle new fiscal constraints.

日益增长的通货膨胀以及民众针对不断攀升的食品以及燃油价格的不满和抗议，加之政界人士对于如何因应新形势下财政紧缩的意见分歧，给亚洲各国政府带来很大压力。

India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea - just a few countries in Asia where residents angry at surging fuel and food costs say they have had enough. Protests have gained steam in the past month, with demonstrators blocking traffic and in some cases disrupting the flow of fuel and food supplies.

在印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国以及韩国等国家，民众们对于大幅度攀升的食品以及燃油价格，表示强烈的不满，说他们已经“受够了”。过去一个月里，各地的抗议活动此起彼伏，抗议人士在一些地方阻断了交通，有的时候还迫使食品以及燃油的运输不得不中断。

Politicians in many of these countries also are struggling with inflation. Rising costs have forced governments throughout the region to reduce the subsidies they have long given on fuel.

在这些国家里，政界人士也在为通货膨胀感到头疼。不断攀升的价格迫使亚洲地区各国政府不得不削减长期以来给予消费者的燃油补贴。

Mark Thirlwell, program director for international economy at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Australia, says subsidy cuts were bound to happen with oil prices holding over $130 dollars a barrel.

澳大利亚洛伊国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)的项目负责人瑟尔威尔表示，在原油价格持续在130多美元一桶的情况下，各国政府削减补贴势在必行。

"Their initial reaction in many cases is to use subsidies to defray the impact of higher fuel prices, higher food prices," Thirlwell explained. "As that situation has been sustained for longer and longer and as you've actually seen prices bid up higher and higher, the budgetary burden has gotten greater in each case."

他说：“那些政府最初的反应是利用补贴来抵消燃油和食品价格的攀升所带来的负面影响，随着这种局势的持续发展，实际上价格越来越高，各国政府面临的财政压力也越来越大。”

The problem for many governments is that most of the inflation problem is global, not local. High worldwide demand, supply bottlenecks and international monetary policy all help push up oil prices. And food prices are soaring because of tight supplies and rising demand.

对很多国家的政府来说，通货膨胀带来的问题是全球性的，而不是地区性的。世界范围内的高需求，货源不足以及国际货币政策都是迫使石油价格上涨的因素。食品价格的上升则是供不应求造成的。

That leaves governments with little room to maneuver, and in countries that have long subsidized fuel or food for their citizens, budgets are being overburdened, forcing leaders to do such things as cut subsidies, raise taxes or accept growing deficits.

在这种情况下，各国政府应对的空间非常有限。在那些长期以来对食品或者是燃油实行补贴政策的国家里，政府在财政支出方面，呈现出负担过重的情形，迫使政府当中的决策人士不得不削减补贴、增加税收或者是面临不断增多的赤字。

In Malaysia, for example, government leaders recently raised fuel prices by 41 percent after being faced with $17 billion-bill to underwrite fuel subsidies. In a country used to cheap subsidized gasoline, protests erupted quickly.

比如说，在马来西亚，政府间的领导人最近就面临着要拿出170亿美元进行燃油补贴，随后被迫把燃油的价格提高了41%。马来西亚的民众长期以来习惯了由政府提供补助的廉价汽油；面对新的形势，抗议活动随之而起。

In India, politicians are desperate to tame inflation - now at a seven-year high. If they fail, a voter backlash in next year's national elections is likely. Thirlwell says government leaders there are caught in a very difficult situation.

在印度，通货膨胀率现在是七年来最高的，政界人士千方百计想要控制住这种趋势。假如不成功的话，民众很有可能就将在明年的全国大选当中，用选票说话。瑟尔威尔说，印度的领导人现在面临着非常困难的处境。

Thirlwell says governments that cut subsidies, or are not fiscally strong enough to handle the burden of rising inflation, face the strongest protests, and the strongest risks of political upheaval.

他说，那些决定削减补贴的政府、或者是财政方面不够强大、不足以承受通货膨胀所带来的压力的政府，面临着最严峻的抗议，也面临着政治动荡。

"On the one hand, it's fiscal pressures which say well our ability to sort of defray or provide subsidies or ameliorate these price increases is limited, on the other hand we know there is real political cost involved here if we let inflation get out of control because the voters will punish us for this," Thirlwell said.

他说：“一方面，是财政上的压力，政府提供补贴或者是通过其他方式控制价格上涨的能力有限，另一方面，要是控制不住通货膨胀的话，执政党的前途就很成问题，选民们会用选票说话的。”

Robert Broadfoot of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Hong Kong says several governments are making a number of mistakes in handling inflation, and public concerns.

香港政治和经济风险资讯公司的罗伯特.布罗德福特表示，有几个国家的政府在处理通货膨胀问题上的做法是错误的。

"In India, you have elections coming up and members of the ruling coalition don't want anything that is going to cost them votes, which means don't get rid of the subsidies," he said. "So the politicians are making mistakes and this is a time when the countries really can't afford it."

他说：“印度马上就要举行选举，执政联盟的成员不希望因为冒然行事而失去选票，这意味着补贴不能取消。 政界人士这么做是错误的，这是这个国家实在不能承担得起的。”

Broadfoot says the Indian government's bill for fuel subsidies is expected to be almost $60 billion this year, because the retail price remains far below the cost of oil. He says considering that citizens already have taken to the streets to protest recent price increases, the Indian government can expect more strife if it is forced to slash subsidies again.

布罗德福特表示，预计印度政府今年的燃料补贴费用大约为600亿美元，因为零售价格依然远远低于石油的成本。他说，考虑到公民们已经走上街头抗议最近的价格上涨，如果印度政府再次被迫大幅度削减补贴，那么，可以预计印度政府将会面临更多的冲突。

Soaring fuel and food costs also are taking a toll on developed economies such as Hong Kong, where groups are demanding that the government freeze prices or reduce taxes. In South Korea, truck drivers blocked roads to air their frustration over rising fuel prices and lower incomes.

Some countries are handling the problems better than others. Broadfoot says Indonesia should be applauded, despite recent protests over cuts to fuel subsidies.

但是，有些国家在这方面的表现比其它国家要好。布罗德福特表示，尽管印尼最近因为削减燃油补贴也出现了抗议活动，但是，印尼政府的做法却值得称道。

"The current president is taking some hard decisions, like they've really reduced their subsidies on fuel and yet he's done it in a way that's made it digestible for the population," Broadfoot noted. "He's giving poor Indonesian cash handouts, which make it a lot easier. So there have been protests but not of a scale that can bring the government down."

他说：“现任总统正在作出一些艰难的决定，虽然印尼减少了对燃油的补贴，但采取的方式却为大众所接受。印尼总统给穷人提供现金补助，这使决定执行起来顺利得多。虽然也出现抗议，但没有闹到把政府赶下台的地步。”

Indonesia raised retail fuel prices by 30 percent last month.

上个月，印尼还把燃料的零售价格提高了百分之30。

Many people, including government leaders, hope that relief will soon be in sight. But Thirlwell, like many analysts, warns not to expect inflation to slow.

许多人，包括政府领导人在内，都希望很快就能有一个救济办法出台。但是，和很多其他分析人士一样，瑟尔威尔警告人们不要期望通货膨胀会放慢。

"Over time, high prices will produce a supply response, and we'll see some of the sting out of current prices come out," Thirlwell said. "But, there are all these question marks of well if there is any disruption to supply, any questions on supply, then rather than a sort of a slight retreat in prices we actually have the potential for another big spike."

他说：“随着时间的推移，高价格会导致供应的回馈。我们会看到，目前价格高涨造成的问题有些的确会消失。但是，不确定的因素依旧存在，例如一旦供应中断，或者供应出现问题，那么价格不但不会下降，实际上还有可能出现另一次上涨。”

A number of Asian countries, including India and Indonesia, face elections in the coming year. How each government handles inflation will likely affect the next campaigns. Being popular with the public is usually a top priority for elected leaders. But many economists and political analysts warn such popularity can come at a higher price than some countries can afford.

包括印度和印尼在内的一些亚洲国家明年都面临选举。对每个政府来说，通货膨胀问题解决的好坏有可能影响下一次竞选。得到大众的支持对当选领导人来说通常是当务之急。但是，许多经济学家和政治分析家警告说，这么做所付出高昂的代价是某些国家所承受不起的。