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国际英语新闻:Currency is off limits at G20 summit

2010-06-19来源:和谐英语
One of the factors that Chinese economists have frequently cited of late is that, in May, the growth in China's industrial output was 16.5 percent year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points lower than in April.

The World Bank also announced on Friday that it has revised its forecast of China's yearly GDP growth in 2011 from the previous 8.7 percent to 8.5 percent. It said that after a strong start in 2010, China's growth will inevitably begin to slow down as a result of its policy-level stimulus and of measures to cap property market prices, which were introduced in April.

The World Bank predicted China's yearly GDP growth could be 9.5 percent in 2010, before it falls to 8.5 percent and continues to be slow in the next decade (while still keeping a respectable rate), due mainly to decelerating contributions from labor and productivity, and relatively weak capital accumulation.

Louis Kuijs, a senior economist at the World Bank, told China Daily that there is room to move on the yuan exchange rate, preferably on the flexibility side.

But if China needs to tighten its monetary stance to contain key economic risks, moves on the domestic front, such as raising interest rates, would be more practical, he said.

To effectively control the risks related to property prices, local government debts and banks' non-performing loans, China should let interest rates play a larger role in monetary policy, said Kuijs.

Ardo Hansson, the World Bank's lead economist for China, argued that global and domestic substantial uncertainty calls for policy flexibility rather than continued stimulus by default.

However, views still remain divided on the yuan among Chinese economists, some of whom suggest China might have missed the best time to start yuan appreciation.

"Now we are facing rising challenges from the European debt crisis and a slow-down in economic growth," said Huang Yiping, an economist with Peking University, adding that the longer China waits to appreciate the yuan, the worse consequence it may bear in possible trade wars.

Lei Yanhua, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce, argued that appreciating the yuan would increase the living cost of American middle-class families and jeopardize the Chinese economy when it is in the middle of significant restructuring.