国际英语新闻:Scottish vote for independence would change political map of remaining UK: expert

LONDON, Sept. 11 (Xinhua) -- If Scottish voters back the referendum for independence in the vote next week then the political map of Britain could change dramatically, according to a leading polling expert on Thursday.

Peter Kellner, the president of the polling company YouGov and a veteran pollster, told journalists at a press conference in London, that should Scotland vote for independence, its MPs would no longer sit in the British parliament at Westminster once the two sides separated, which could be as early as 2016.

There are currently 59 Scottish MPs (out of a total of 650), 41 of whom are Labor with just one Conservative.

The net loss to Labor of 40 seats would have an effect on British politics, said Kellner, and would have given British Prime Minister David Cameron a Conservative majority in the 2010 general election, meaning he would not have had to form a coalition government.

The consequences would be felt most hard by the opposition Labor Party.

"Does it make it impossible for Labor to win? No, because the three (general) elections Labor won under Blair, it would have won under England, Northern Ireland and Wales alone," said Kellner.

However, in general elections in 1964 and 1974 Labor would not have won power without its Scottish MPs.

And there was another consequence of a 'yes' vote victory in the referendum vote on Sept. 18.

Cameron has strongly backed the 'no' camp, which is in favor of continuing the 300-year union of Scotland and the rest of Britain.

Kellner said it was "unknowable" at this point but Cameron might feel it was "the honorable thing" to do to resign from his post.

In addition, a defeat in the referendum would be an opportunity for Cameron's opponents in his own party to sack him as leader.

Kellner said that in the case of defeat, Cameron's usual "enemies" in his party would use it as another stick to beat him with, but if their opposition gained strong support then the prime minister's job might be under threat.

The issue of Scottish independence hit global headlines at the beginning of this week with a poll in the British newspaper the Sunday Times showing that the pro-independence camp had moved into the lead with 51 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Scotland to leave the union, against the 49 percent who would vote 'no'.

Kellner, whose YouGov polling organization had conducted the poll, said that there had been a "yes surge" and a "really substantial movement" in support for independence, which pollsters, including his own company had picked up in a series of polls.

Kellner said, "All you can really say with a 51/49 poll is that it is neck and neck. There is still a margin of error. The point is there was a real substantial movement."

Poll results for much of the referendum campaign have shown a substantial majority for the 'no' camp.

Kellner said, "For month after month I have been saying that it was a no victory."

"All the polls were showing a majority of 58-60 percent 'no' and 40-42 percent 'yes'. The great majority of pollsters with some experience in Scotland were giving those results month after month," said Kellner.

"At the beginning of August we had a poll of 61/39. Then we (YouGov) had a poll in mid-August where it was 57/43 no/yes, which was the lowest (so far) but not far outside the range. It looked as though there was a change," he added.

The YouGov poll on Sept. 1 had 'yes' up to 47, 'no' 53, which confirmed the trend, which Kellner described as a "yes surge".

Kellner outlined the profile of the voters who made up this surge.

"The over 60s have not moved much, they are still 60/40. It will be a high turnout and normally older people have a higher turnout than younger," said Kellner, who added, "But every group has swung significantly in the past few weeks -- the groups that have swung most are women more than men, working class more than middle class, and under 40s more than over 40s, and Labor voters."

Figures from the YouGov website gave the detail to Kellner's assertion.

Support for independence had gone up among under 40s from 39 percent four weeks ago to 60 percent last Sunday; among working class voters from 41 percent to 56 percent; among women from 33 percent to 47 percent; and among Labor Party voters from 18 percent to 35 percent.

"The typical voter who has swung is a young, normally Labor voter, who is a woman," said Kellner.