国际英语新闻:News Analysis: In Gaza, possibilities for truce, war are equal

GAZA, Oct. 14 (Xinhua) -- In the Palestinian Gaza Strip, the possibilities of reaching a truce deal between Islamic Hamas movement and Israel, or an outbreak of a fierce military conflict are almost equal.

Palestinian observers believe that armed Palestinian factions and Israel do not show a desire for a military escalation, but developments on the ground keep the possibilities open for a sudden military confrontation.

On Friday, seven Palestinians, including a child, were killed and dozens wounded by Israeli gunfire during weekly protests that have been ongoing since March 30 along the Gaza-Israel borders.

This raised the total number of Palestinian death toll since the beginning of the protests, known as the "Great March of Return," to more than 200.

Then, Israel on Saturday suspended the entry of industrial fuel to Gaza's sole power plant until further notice in response to Friday's protests.

The fuel halt came amid efforts exerted by the United Nations and other countries to ease the blockade Israel has been imposing on Gaza since Hamas' violent takeover of the impoverished enclave in 2007.

On Saturday, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas movement politburo chief, said the weekly protests will continue until Israel lifts its blockade on Gaza.

"Both Hamas and Israel are tightening the ropes around each other to strengthen their position weather for truce or war," Gaza-based political expert Adnan Abu Amer told Xinhua.

Abu Amer said that Israel's demands for any humanitarian moves for Gaza are still the same as it requires complete calm.

"There is still time to see a different Israeli position ... Israel may ease the blockade and this may not be a miracle, but it is not easy at the same time," he said.

Israel has repeatedly demanded that Hamas and other Palestinian factions be demilitarized in addition to handing over the Israeli soldiers held hostage in Gaza in order to agree on substantial steps to ease the blockade.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian factions stress that the weekly protests are peaceful that demand a complete lifting of the blockade, which led to uNPRecedented deterioration of the humanitarian situation of Gaza's 2 million populations.

In recent months, Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations have succeeded to stop repeated violent confrontations between Hamas and Israel. However, their mediation did not come out with a full truce agreement.

Hamas also announced efforts by the United Nations, Egypt and Qatar to secure an unconditioned truce deal in exchange for lifting the blockade, which Israel has not officially confirmed.

"Hamas is more in favor of calm than military escalation, but at the same time keeping the weekly protests to press for the lifting of the blockade," political analyst Abdel Nasser al-Najjar from Ramallah city told Xinhua.

The expert said it is hard to tell what may happen in the coming days as things are "vague".

"Nobody can really tell if Gaza will see a new war, or Israel will relax its blockade," he noted.

To avoid further deterioration, al-Najjar said, Gaza needs a national strategy based on the interests of the Palestinian people, with ending the internal Palestinian division on top.

The seaside territory has been suffering from a political division since Hamas violent takeover of Gaza.

Last October, Hamas and Fatah signed an Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation pact in Cairo to heal their decade-long rift.

Under the deal, Hamas should fully hand over its power in Gaza to the Ramallah-based consensus government in December.

However, the ongoing differences between the two sides forced a delay in the implementation of the deal until further notice.

More than one agreement on national reconciliation were reached under Saudi, Qatari and Egyptian sponsorship, but none did reach a tangible breakthrough to end the division.

Abbas has recently threatened that he will make "decisive decisions" against the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, including a halt of aid to the blockaded war-torn territory.

"Taking new punitive measures by the Palestinian Authority against Gaza will only perpetuate the division," Akram Atallah, a political observer from Gaza told Xinhua.

Atallah warned that the dedication of the separation of Gaza is already taking place through "the gate of humanitarian intervention".

"The Palestinian Authority should think how to bring Gaza back under its umbrella, especially after it was proved that previous measures intensified the division," the expert pointed out.