国际英语新闻:Interview: UK, EU likely to conclude "bare bones" FTA on goods this year, says expert

LONDON, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- It is possible for Britain to conclude a "bare bones" Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with "zero tariff, zero quota" on goods with the European Union (EU) by the end of this year, a trade expert has told Xinhua in an interview via email.

"The political declaration (on Britain's future relationship with the EU) says that both sides will work to conclude a free trade agreement," said Amar Breckenridge, senior associate at the Frontier Economics (Europe), noting that "a bare bones FTA on goods is in essence."

In his view, what Britain and the EU would aim for by the end of this year is an agreement on basic FTA giving tariff free and quota free access to each others' markets, covering customs and border procedures, and including rules of origin.

Britain officially left the EU at 11 p.m. (2300 GMT) Friday, putting an end to its 47-year-long membership of the world's largest trading bloc. The moment marked the start of a transition period which will last till the end of this year as negotiators try to forge a trade arrangement between Britain and the remaining EU nations.

"How far agriculture will be covered is open to question," said the former economist at the World Trade Organization (WTO), "given the importance of food safety and environmental regulation in this area."

He stressed that a basic FTA would need to be accompanied by either an agreement or an understanding, which would further address the more complicated issues such as financial services and fisheries.

"It won't be realistic to expect negotiations on these to be completed, given the red lines set out by both parties," he said.

The expert also estimated that the option of simply rolling over existing arrangements or parts of them into a new formal agreement is not on the cards by the end of the year because in that case, a tacit extension of the transition period would be in essence.

However, in order to avoid disruption, Breckenridge believed both parties would probably need to come to an understanding that present rules will apply in some form.

"This isn't straightforward as it will likely require a waiver from other WTO members," Breckenridge added, "it will also require putting in place some interim arrangements for settling litigation and disputes."

"All this sounds like an extension of the transition period, without calling it an extension," he said, noting that fudge will probably be necessary to satisfy Britain's political demands while avoiding serious disruption to the country and the EU.