解除伊朗制裁惠及中东地区

The landmark Iran nuclear deal is expected to change the economic landscape in the Middle East. Previously frozen assets will become available, and Tehran can begin to spend on many things that it desperately needs. Iran’s neighbors such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq and Syria may well see benefits flow.

Iran’s relationship with its neighbours is about to get more complicated. Bilateral trade between Iran and Turkey is estimated to reach 35 billion dollars by the end of next year in the wake of the nuclear agreement. Turkey has indicated interest in increasing its demand for Iranian natural gas should prices drop.

Meanwhile, energy needy Pakistan is anxious to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline or “peace pipeline”, stalled by the sanctions. China too is keen to be involved putting up 85% for the Pakistani stretch.

The agreement could also help investment opportunities between regional countries. For instance, access to Afghanistan through Iran will now allow India to explore Afghanistan’s rich mineral resources, previously blocked by Pakistan.

Iran’s ambassador to Afghanistan is also positive about the regional affects.

"The agreement between Iran and 5+1 can help in the fields of economy, politics and security. It can be helpful in relations between Iran and Afghanistan, as well as the synergy of regional countries and beyond, in the fight and elimination of threats that Afghanistan and the region face," said Mohammad Reza Bahrami, Iranian ambassador to Afghanistan.

Insecurity is affecting the entire region, and while this agreement might open the door to better communication, some analysts also see it as a double-edged sword.

"It will help us security wise too in the short term because we are kinda strategic allies with the west now, but rivalries of West and Iran always affected us by making proxies and those things. In the short term it will help us but in the long term we don’t know. If Iran gets more powerful and gets a better economy of course it will have a kind of open hand to start influencing here and there," said Adbul Waheed Wafa, Afghanistan center, Kabul University.

Afghan MP Shukria Barakzai says the sovereignty of her country hoped for from this agreement is what’s most important. 

"We are surrounded by nuclear powers in our neighbourhood. We are carrying the concern. If Afghanistan can have peace of mind of that deal and Iran will get rid of interfere in Afghanistan domestic issue that will be more than enough," said Shukria Barakzai, Afghan parliament member.

Regional rival Saudi Arabia has indicted it might step up its operations in Syria and Yemen before the sanctions on Iran are lifted and Tehran’s power to support rival factions increases.

While this new deal could pick up the economies of many regional partners, in so doing, it could also expand Iran’s influence, and allow it to have a stronger hand in region crisis such as the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, something the US congress will find hard to accept.