创新竞争：美是否落后于中国和印度?

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to travel to the Western states of California and Oregon this week to meet with the heads of leading high-tech companies. His trip comes just weeks after the president outlined plans in his State of the Union Address to put more emphasis on innovation and education. To learn more about the significance of the trip and whether the United States is losing its competitive edge against emerging economic powerhouses like India and China, VOA's William Ide spoke with Adam Segal at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He is the author of the new book: Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge.

美国总统奥巴马这个星期前往旧金山和俄勒冈洲，同主要高科技公司的负责人会晤。就在几个星期前，奥巴马总统在国情咨演讲中强调创新和教育的重要性，并宣布了相应计划。为了了解奥巴马此行的重要性，以及面对中国和印度等新兴经济体的挑战，美国是否正在丧失创新竞争优势的问题，记者采访了美国对外关系委员会(US Council on Foreign Relations)资深研究员亚当·西格尔(Adam Segal)。西格尔最近出版了新书，题目是《优势：美国如何对应来自亚洲的创新挑战》。

IDE: Increasingly, there is an assumption that the United States is losing its edge to China and India, and that it is on the decline. What are the recent developments that seem to support that assumption?

艾德：现在很多人认为，美国在创新竞争中正在丧失优势，中国和印度正在后来居上。那么近期的事态发展是否能证明这种推断呢？

SEGAL: "I think people point a lot to the numbers coming out, especially about China - so for example the PISA [Program for International Student Assessment] test out of Shanghai, where Shanghai high schoolers scored higher on math and science than we expected. The patent numbers - China is now the number two patent filer in the world, past Japan. I think they look at things like wind turbines and solar energy and how the Chinese are dominating those markets as well as high-speed rail. So I think all of those things are shown as evidence that China, in particular, is closing the gap."

西格尔：我认为人们尤其关注有关中国的数据。比如国际学生评估计划PISA在上海地区的考试，高中生的数理化成绩就高于预期。中国现在的专利申请数量位居全球第二，已经超过了日本。此外，中国在风力发电、太阳能研制和高铁等领域也开始占领市场。所以我认为，这些都证明，中国正在缩小与美国的差距。

IDE: But you don't agree with that assumption? And that's the topic of the book you recently released.

艾德：但你并不赞同这种推断。你的新书就是要说明这点，是吗？

SEGAL: "That's right. I basically make a distinction between what I call the "hardware" and the "software" of innovation. The hardware are the things that I've mentioned - easily measurable metrics such as papers and patents and all these things. And the software are the political, social and cultural understandings that help move ideas from labs to the market place. And then if you look at China and India, you see that those are harder to build. For example, on the publication side, this week we also had a major story out of China about academic fraud and plagiarism, which has been a huge problem. On the patent side, yes, the Chinese have increased the number of patents. But the quality of the patents is actually very low and most of them are actually filed for other reasons. So if you look at these kind of [questions] - How do you train a scientist? How you help start up companies? How do you protect intellectual property rights? - you see that there is a long way to go to build these things in China and India. And that's why I am less pessimistic about what the U.S. can do."

西格尔：是的。我将创新大致分成硬件和软件两块。硬件是文章、专利等可以计算的，软件是政治、社会和文化等可以帮助把设想转化为现实的因素。中国和印度就是在软件方面的发展相对滞后。比如，本星期有报道说，中国出版业学术欺诈与剽窃现象相当严重。专利方面，中国的申请数量的确增加了，但质量实际很差，而且大部分申请是另有所图。所以，什么是培养科学家的方法？如何成立公司？怎样保护知识产权？中国和印度在这些方面还差很远。

IDE: Why are trips like the one that President Obama is making to Silicon Valley in the San Francisco area important? Or are they not that important?

艾德：奥巴马总统访问旧金山湾区，参观英特尔公司，意义究竟何在？

SEGAL: "I think they clearly are slightly symbolic and a lot about public relations. But I do think they are important in the sense that the president needs to build a narrative about what our strengths are and what we need to do to compete. And I think innovation is clearly at the top of that list and I also think that it is important that people realize this is an area of strength for us. If you look at how innovation is changing, it is becoming more globalized, spread around the world to all of these newly emerging science and technology centers in China and India. And the U.S., in fact, is well positioned to take advantage of those. We have extensive connections to all of those places through alumni networks, university collaboration and corporate networks. I think the U.S. is better positioned than any country to take advantage of this kind of new global system of science and technology. So I think it's important for the president to point to our strengths and some of the things we need to do as we move forward."

西格尔：这里公关的用意很明显。但这次访问还是很重要，因为总统想展示美国的科研实力，以及如何提高竞争力，创新优势无疑是最重要的领域。人民意识到美国在这方面的优势很重要。如果你留意创新的演变，你就会发现创新越来越全球化，并向中国和印度等新兴科技中心拓展。美国实际上可以利用自身实力。美国学术界、大学和企业同这些地区联系广泛。同其他国家相比，美国能更好地利用此类新兴全球化的科技体系。所以，奥巴马总统此行展示国家科研实力，就很重要。

IDE: How is China pulling ahead and how much further does it have to go before it could surpass the United States?

艾德：中国在创新领域是否可能超越美国？

SEGAL: "It is clearly making gains in areas that are going to be important in the future. I think the one [area] that gets the most attention, of course, is new energy - wind turbines and solar panels. Both of those really have more to do about scale - the Chinese ability to deploy in large numbers those technologies and drive the price down. There hasn't been really a significant breakthrough on the technology side from Chinese producers and I don't expect one in the near term. I think the greatest threat from China in the near term - and again, I don't necessarily think we need to perceive it as a threat - where we might see some breakthroughs are probably in telecommunications and nano [technology], where the Chinese have produced a great deal of papers and are doing a great deal of work. I think if you look across the board at the Chinese economy, they are several decades behind the U.S. on the technological front. And I expect that that will remain that way for quite some time."

西格尔：中国在未来研究领域进步明显，最令人瞩目的是风力发电和太阳能等新能源领域。这同中国的产业规模有关。中国能使用大量的新技术，压低价格，但中国厂商并没有在技术上取得多大的突破，短期内也不可能。我认为，中国短期内的最大威胁，是可能会在通讯和纳米技术领域取得一些突破。中国在这两个方面发表了不少论文，进行了很多研究。但总体而言，中国科技要落后美国几十年。这在短期内不会改变。

IDE: President Obama in his recent State of the Union address spoke about the importance of education and innovation, and "winning the future" by out-innovating the rest of the world. What is it that the United States needs to do more of to maintain its edge in innovation?

艾德：奥巴马总统在国情咨文演讲中说教育与创新很重要，美国创新需要领先世界，才能赢得未来。美国需要怎样做，才能巩固美国的创新领导地位？

SEGAL: "I think part of the problem moving forward is going to be money. The one area of President Obama's budget that wasn't heavily cut was research and development spending of the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy. And in fact, both of those were increased. But if those are going to survive the budget process - and Republicans in the House of Representatives seem intent on cutting that - is going to be a major issue. Just having the resources, I think, is going to be a serious issue for the U.S. moving forward. There has also been a lot of talk about how we need to have more scientists and engineers in the United States, that China and India are eventually going to train more people and pass us. I think that is partly the right answer. But I think the real thing we need to be focusing on is: what it is we are actually training our engineers and scientists to do, what type of skills they have and, increasingly, do they have international experience."

西格尔：我认为资金是很重要的问题。奥巴马提交的联邦预算，并没有大幅削减国家科学基金会(National Science Foundation)和美国能源部的研发经费，实施上还有增加。但众议院共和党人似乎有意削减这些经费，总统的预算能否成功过关，是个大问题。很多人在谈论美国需要培养更多的科学家和工程师，因为中印两国的科学家与工程师的数量最终会超过我们。所以资金很重要。但更重要的，是我们需要着重考虑科学家与工程师的培养方向。他们需要具备什么样的能力？是否需要国际经验等。