油价高涨的原因

"Back in the year 2000 the investing community as a whole made up about 10 percent of long positions in the oil market and now they are up to 40 percent," said Zeihan. "So you add that many new players and that much new money, but you do not add any more than a 10 percent increase in oil supply and, of course, you are going to have higher prices."

扎汉说：“2000年时，投资资金在石油市场多头头寸中所占的比例约为10%，而现在已经占到40%。因此，增加了这些新的市场参与者和大量新的投资资金，但石油供应的增加幅度不超过10%，当然油价就会上升。”

While that investment money comes from all over the world, Zeihan says one of the most significant contributors has been China, which takes in dollars from the United States and other nations that import its products. He says China has put much of that money into oil futures.

虽然投资资金来自全球各地，但是扎汉说，其中最主要的资金来源地之一是中国。他说，中国从进口其产品的美国和其它国家那里获得美元，并将那些钱中的大部分投资于石油期货。

But the Stratfor analyst says the fundamental laws of supply and demand always win out eventually and then, as happened in 1998, 2001, and, most recently and dramatically in 2008, the price drops.

但这位Stratfor公司的分析师说，供需的基本法则最终总是决定性因素，就像1998、2001和最近也是波动最大的一年2008年发生的那样，价格会下降。

"Sooner or later the fundamentals are going to overpower the investor fervor," he said. "It happens every few years. Eventually the fundamentals will overpower any exuberance on the market and you will have a sudden, rapid sustained price drop over the course of a few weeks."

扎汉说：“迟早供需基本面将盖过投资热。这种情况每几年就会出现。最终基本面将压倒市场繁荣，油价将在几个星期里突然地持续迅速下跌。”

Zeihan is not predicting when that will happen. In the meantime, he sees signs that higher prices are encouraging more conservation and driving sales of fuel-efficient cars, but he does not see the development of an alternative to oil any time soon.

扎汉没有预测油价将于何时下跌。与此同时，他看到有迹象显示油价升高正鼓励更多的保守消费模式和带动燃油经济型汽车的销售，但他并不认为石油替代品会很快发展。

"In the United States we have proven that high prices were certainly exactly what was necessary to make hybrids very popular, but in terms of any other energy source, there is really nothing on the horizon," he said.

扎汉说：“在美国我们已经证实高油价对于混合动力车受到青睐显然是必要的，但是谈到其它能源，还真没有什么可替代石油的。”

Zeihan says there is no other transportation fuel as dense in energy, as flexible and as easy to transport and use as petroleum. Natural gas from shale may help alleviate some of the U.S. demand, he says, but that will require a big investment in infrastructure. He says electric cars, recharged from power supplied by expanded nuclear plants, looked promising until the recent nuclear accident in Japan. For the foreseeable future, Zeihan says, the world depends on oil and consumers will have to put up with the frequent price fluctuations.

扎汉说，没有哪种其它交通燃料能像石油一样密集、灵活、易于运输和使用。他说，来自页岩中的天然气可能帮助美国缓解一些需求，但这将需要基础设施方面的大量投资。他说，在最近的日本核事故发生前，电动汽车的前景一度看好，这些电动汽车用扩增的核电厂供应的电力充电。对于可预见的未来，扎汉说，全球还得依赖石油，消费者将不得不忍受油价的频繁波动。