俄罗斯为何反对美建立导弹防御体系？

Arms control expert Joseph Cirincione said Russia is convinced the U.S. seeks advantage over Moscow, knowing its nuclear forces are slowly declining.

武器控制问题专家约瑟夫.奇林乔内说，俄罗斯认为，美国知道俄罗斯的核力量正在缓慢衰退，因此美国想趁虚而入。

“They are aging and Russia doesn’t have the money to replace them one-for-one," said Cirincione. "They are worried that the U.S. is going to seek some advantage by putting up a ring of anti-missile systems around Russia, supposedly aimed at Iran but the Russians believe secretly aimed at them, and then be able to take out Russia’s nuclear forces in a first strike, mopping up whatever is left by an anti-missile system that could shoot down Russian missiles. That is a complete fantasy, by the way. There is no truth to that whatsoever.”

他说：“那些核力量正在老化，俄罗斯没有钱一个一个的更新。俄罗斯担心美国想通过在俄罗斯周围设立反导弹圈，来谋取一些好处；这些导弹的目的原本是对付伊朗，但是俄罗斯人认为，是为了秘密对付俄罗斯，然后美国就能在首次行动中拿下俄罗斯的核力量，并且用足以打下俄罗斯导弹的反导弹体系来扫荡残余的核力量。其实这完全是幻想，完全不是事实。”

Papic with STRATFOR said that for Moscow, it really doesn’t matter what kind of missiles the Americans put in place in Europe.

STRATFOR公司的分析师马尔科.帕皮克说，对莫斯科而言，美国在欧洲设置什么样的导弹都无关紧要。

“Because ultimately, the Russian deterrent is not countered by this plan - and that’s because Russia has an overwhelming number of intercontinental ballistic missiles that it could launch on Europe if it really wanted to, with, of course, multiple warheads and things like that. So there is absolutely no way America can prevent an attack.”

他说：“因为说到底，美国的计划吓阻不了俄罗斯。这是由于俄罗斯有压倒性数量的洲际弹道导弹，如果俄罗斯想要的话，这些安置了多枚弹头的导弹能在欧洲发射。因此美国完全没有办法预防俄罗斯的导弹袭击。”

Fear of US presence

Papic and others say Russia realizes the military part of its criticism is bogus. But Papic said what is unacceptable to Moscow, is that the U.S. missile defense installations represent a move by American forces into central and Eastern Europe.

帕皮克和其他人士说，俄罗斯意识到，它对美国军事部分的批评是虚张声势，但是帕皮克说，莫斯科不接受的是，美国的导弹防设施展现出美国力量进入到了中欧和东欧。

“Fundamentally, what Russia doesn’t want to see, is American quote-unquote ‘boots on the ground’ - moving from their positions of Cold War Germany and Western Europe, closer to Russia’s sphere of influence and periphery,” said Papic.

帕皮克说：“基本上，俄罗斯不想看到的是“美国人的靴子踩上更多土地”，从冷战时的德国和西欧，移动到距离俄罗斯影响所及和周边地区更近的地方。”

At the NATO summit in Lisbon last year, the United States and Russia agreed to collaborate on the issue of missile defense. Experts say while some progress has been made, Moscow is still fundamentally opposed to the U.S. missile defense plan.

去年在里斯本举行的北约高峰会上，美国和俄罗斯同意在导弹防御问题上进行协作。专家认为，虽然取得了一些进展，但是莫斯科仍然从根本上反对美国的导弹防御计划。