市场对奥朗德可能当选法国总统不安

The eurozone's sovereign debt crisis has helped topple half a dozen European leaders. It looks like French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be next. Polls show Sarkozy's Socialist rival, Francois Hollande, winning France's May 6 runoff election. But the prospect of an Hollande presidency is making markets - and analysts - nervous.

欧元区的主权债务危机已经导致多名欧洲领导人下台，法国总统萨科齐看起来可能会是下一个 。民调显示，萨科齐的社会党对手奥朗德将赢得法国5月6日的总统选举决选。不过奥朗德若当选总统令市场和分析人士不安。

It's been nearly 20 years since France had a Socialist president. That may change in just over a week. French polls all predict Socialist contender Francois Hollande will beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of presidential elections on May 6.

法国总统为社会党人已经是将近20年前的事了。这可能将在一个星期左右有所改变。法国民调全都预测，在5月6日第二轮总统选举中，社会党竞争者奥朗德将击败保守派总统萨科齐。

In press conferences and interviews - like one on French radio Friday - Hollande outlines an economic strategy that includes more taxes for the rich and more spending to stimulate growth.

奥朗德陆续在一些记者会和采访中提出了他大概的经济策略，包括对富人增税，同时增加开支刺激增长。

But Hollande says his first action would target the wider eurozone crisis that is now in its third year. Hollande says he will renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty agreed to last year in order to promote economic growth.

不过奥朗德说，他的第一个行动会放在更广的欧元区危机。欧元区危机现在已经进入第三年。奥朗德说，他将就去年通过的欧盟财政条约重新谈判以刺激经济增长。

The Socialist candidate is getting applause from his supporters - but not from markets, which briefly dipped after he won the first round of French elections last Sunday. Analysts like economics professor Tomasz Michalski, of the HEC business school in Paris, also see little reason to cheer.

这位社会党候选人赢得支持者的肯定，但不受市场欢迎。就在他上星期天赢得第一轮选举后市场短暂下跌。例如巴黎高等商学院经济学家迈考斯基等分析人士，也不认为市场有高兴的理由。

"First of all, Hollande is going to increase very drastically taxes in France. In the short run the increase in taxes is going to lower the budget deficit," he said. "But in the long run it's not a good growth strategy…this is going to keep talent away. And France desperately needs new businesses, desperately needs entrepreneurs to keep the economy going."

迈考斯基说：“首先，奥朗德将大幅提高法国的税。增税在短期内能降低预算赤字，但长期来说并不是良好的增长策略，这会让人才却步。而法国迫切需要新的企业和新的创业者来维持经济。”

Other experts agree. Britain's leading The Economist magazine is even more critical, calling Hollande's economic prescriptions "dangerous."

其他专家同意这种说法。英国知名杂志《经济学人》的批评更为严厉，他们称奥朗德的经济对策“危险”。

Analyst Philip Whyte, of the London-based Center for European Reform, says he understands why markets are jittery about an Hollande presidency.

总部设在伦敦的欧洲改革中心的分析人士怀特说，他了解市场为何对奥朗德担任总统不安。

"But of course, once he's in office, he will very quickly be confronted by some of the constraints of office and some of those constraints might be imposed by the bond markets," he said."

怀特说：“但当然一旦他当选，他将很快遭遇一些限制，而这些限制有些可能来自债券市场。”

Hollande's growth prescription for Europe even got some support this week by European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi, who called on governments to invest in jobs and growth along with spending cuts.

奥朗德对欧洲经济增长的对策这星期甚至获得欧洲央行行长德拉吉的支持。德拉吉曾呼吁欧洲政府在削减开支外同时对工作和增长进行投资。