伦敦G20金融峰会-集团力量

WHEN an infamous summit of world powers in London ended in 1933, such was the mood of protectionist acrimony that many argued it would have been better if the meeting had not been held at all. At times in the run up to the G20 gathering of world leaders in London on Thursday April 2nd it looked as if history might be repeated. But the leaders have shown some grit, and some ingenuity in finding money when little is about. Many holes can be picked in their pledges to reflate the world economy and re-regulate global finance. But, at the very least, it was better that they met than not.

当1933年世界列强聚集伦敦召开那次声名狼藉的峰会后，贸易保护主义之风开始弥漫。好多人认为那次会议不开也许会更好些。在20国领导人峰会即将在伦敦于四月二日周四召开的前夕，情况时常看起来让人觉得似乎历史将有可能重演。但是领袖们显示出了一些坚韧不拔的勇气和资金稀缺的情况下筹钱的技巧。在他们对重振世界经济和重整全球金融体系的承诺中有诸多的漏洞。但是，至少这比他们不见面好些。

The centerpiece of the leaders’ plan is, conveniently, the IMF, which they believe can add an extra $1 trillion in funding to the world economy without the risk of ballooning national budgets, or obstruction from national politicians. That financial conjuring trick gets the G20 out of a bind. Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, has made much of $5 trillion in public spending that governments around the world have promised to help shunt their economies out of recession in 2009-10. But big spenders such as America and Britain are up against their limits and fiscal hawks such as Germany are stubbornly convinced they have done enough.
领袖们计划中最引人注目的就是国际货币基金组织，他们认为可以给予其一万亿美元以支持世界经济而没有增加财政预算和受阻于政客的风险。这些金融伎俩使得二十国集团摆脱框架约束。英国首相布朗非常重视各国政府承诺的5万亿美元公共开支，这5万亿美元有助于这些国家抵御2009－10年的经济衰退。但是开支大户诸如美国和英国已经将要达到其支出极限，而一些财政鹰派国家例如德国却坚持其做的已经够了。

That leaves the IMF as pump-primer of last resort, although not all of the funding promises made on Thursday were new. Japan and the European Union had already agreed to put $100 billion each into the IMF’s kitty. Rich countries such as America will provide a $500 billion credit line, known as New Arrangements to Borrow. This was trailed several weeks ago. Significantly, the IMF will print $250 billion of its own currency, known as special drawing rights, allocating sums to its members according to their quotas. It is not clear whether this can be redirected from rich countries to poor ones.
这使得国际货币基金组织成为投资刺激经济的最后手段[pump-priming:政府(为刺激国民经济)对商业企业的投资]，虽然并不是在周二所有的承诺资金都是新的。日本和欧盟之前已经分别同意给国际货币基金组织注资1000亿美元。富裕国家例如美国会提供5000亿美元的信贷额度，称作新借贷协议。这项协议在几周前还遭否决。特别值得注意的是，国际货币基金组织会增加2500亿美元的自己的货币（称作特别提款权），并根据各个会员国的份额进行分配。现在尚不清楚的是这些特别提款权是否会从富裕的国家转向贫穷的国家。

This flood of extra resources, plus an enhanced oversight role the G20 has given to the fund, will be a huge turnaround for an institution whose relevance had slumped in the boom years. Now the new money must be directed to developing countries, especially in eastern Europe. Many such countries have been loth to tap the fund because of the stigma involved. A pledge by the G20 to reform the fund’s governance soon may convince them that the leopard has changed its spots. This week Mexico secured a $47 billion credit line with the fund, with no strings attached, which may set a trend. Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution believes the commitment to reform is credible. His evidence is that China has agreed to chip in $40 billion, prior to any changes to its voting power in the IMF (it has the same heft as Belgium). Others, however, remain sceptical. “This is still supply chasing demand,” says Arvind Subramanian of the Centre for Global Development.
这一大批额外的资源，加上G20峰会给予IMF的得到强化的监管角色，对于这个其存在意义在繁荣年代直线下滑的机构来说将是一次重大的转变。现在新筹集的资金必须投向发展中国家，特别是东欧。东欧许多国家不情愿求助于国际货币基金组织，因为这带有许多耻辱的痕迹。二十国集团承诺改革国际货币基金组织的治理结构，并且让他们相信肯定会有所改变的。本周墨西哥获得国际货币基金组织470亿美元贷款额度而没有任何附加条件，这也许代表一种趋势。布鲁金斯学会的Eswar Prasad认为对改革的承诺是可靠的。他的证据是：中国同意在对国际货币基金组织里表决权（现在其投票权重仅与比利时相当）不作任何变动的前提下就为其注资400亿美元[译者注：这里中国这么做的条件应该是去除借款的附属条件]。然而，其他人仍持怀疑态度。全球发展中心的Arvind Subramanian表示：“现在仍是供大于求。”

The importance of offering new sources of funds to the developing world should not be underestimated, however. By some estimates poor countries have $1.4 trillion of debts to roll over this year alone and Western creditors are hoarding their cash. These countries have far less fiscal room for manoeuvre than rich economies. They are also areas of the world where growth could rebound quite quickly, because households are not weighed down by the crushing debts typical in America and Europe. In a further fillip to many of them, the G20 agreed to ensure $250 billion in trade finance to help reboot global trade—though it was not clear how much of this was new money.
尽管如此，给发展中国家注入资金的重要性不可低估。一些预计指出，今年贫穷国家就有1.4万亿美元的债务需要再次筹集，但是西方的债权人却在囤积现金。这些国家的财政动员空间比发达国家要小得多。这些国家正是处于世界经济最易反弹的地区，因为这里家庭消费并未像欧美那样被信贷紧缩严重压制。为使这些国家经济能够进一步反弹，二十国集团同意保证筹集2500亿美元贸易资金以重振全球贸易——虽然还不清楚这2500亿美元中究竟有多少是新投入的资金。

As for efforts to drag the developed world out of the mire, the G20 went perhaps further than had been expected, though undoubtedly not far enough. It emphasised the problem of scrubbing toxic assets off banks’ balance-sheets, but gave little guidance on how banks should be forced to mark down their assets to saleable prices. (Undermining that effort, on Thursday American accounting standard-setters watered down a mark-to-market provision that would have forced banks to value their assets at market prices. The short-sighted reprieve led to a huge rally in the shares of stricken banks such as Citigroup.)
为使发达国家拽出泥淖，二十国集团的动作虽然还不够，但已超过预期。二十国集团强调要除去银行资产负债表上的有毒资产，但对于银行如何降低其资产到可销售的价格并没有明确的指导规则。（破坏这个努力的事件是：周二美国会计标准制定者淡化了一项迫使银行将其资产价值达到市场价格的按市值计价条款。这个短视的暂缓行为使得痼疾在身的一些银行例如花旗的股价得以大幅提升。）

It also, in a nod to strongly held German and French sentiments, called for regulation of hedge funds and other parts of the shadow banking system, a crack down on tax havens and banking secrecy, and more oversight of credit-rating agencies. There was little to suggest that one of the main causes of the crisis, incentives for banks to grow too big to fail, was being tackled.
应德国和法国的要求，二十国集团也呼吁对于对冲基金和其它影子银行体系进行监管，对避税港和银行保密制度进行打压，并且加强对于评级机构的监管。但是对于另一个问题——银行想要变得足够大以使其不能倒闭的动机（这也是导致本次危机爆发的一个重要原因）——却并未有任何解决的迹象。

Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%. American unemployment figures on Friday, which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate the world economy may have avoided a 1930s-style depression so far. But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay down their debts.
听到二十国集团的消息后，全球金融市场都有所上涨，一方面是由于这些小小的好消息，一方面是由于会议的良好气氛。然而还有些坏消息：欧洲央行在周四削减其利率四分之一个百分点至1.25％。周五美国发布的失业率数据应该会令人震惊，这可能会破坏乐观氛围，而且也会减低二十国领袖们庆祝成功的兴趣。他们重振世界经济的努力到目前为之仅仅避免了一场1930年代那样的大萧条而已。但是上升的失业率和西方国家银行、企业和家庭未来的数年之痛会继续竭力偿还他们的负债。