美国服务行业前景令人担忧

It's great news that US factories are stirring again. But manufacturing ceased to be America's life blood years ago. Across the country, there are more waiters than labourers, more amusement park attendants than engineers, and more shop assistants and sales reps than construction workers. The healthcare sector alone accounts for more than a tenth of gross domestic product.
美国工厂又重新忙碌了起来，这是件好事。但早在多年以前，制造业就已不再是美国的生命线。在全美各地，服务员比劳工多，游乐场工作人员比工程师多，店员和销售代表比建筑工人多。仅医疗行业，就占到了国内生产总值(GDP)的10%以上。
　　
Because the US is a service economy, last month's contraction in the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index is worrying. Having risen for the previous two months, it dropped below 50 again, the dividing line between expansion and contraction. Those reporting a decrease in ‘business activity' included important industries such as utilities, real estate, entertainment, transport and education. Most of those also reported a fall in new orders. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, industries predicting tougher times ahead account for about 55 per cent of the workforce.
美国供应管理学会(ISM)发布的非制造业活动指数上月出现萎缩，由于美国是一个服务型经济体，这一点令人担忧。在此前两个月连续上升之后，该指数再次跌破50——这是扩张和萎缩的分水岭。反映“经营活动”有所下降的产业中，包括公共事业、房地产、娱乐、交通和教育等重要产业，其中多数还反映新订单数量有所下降。根据美国劳工统计局的数据，预计未来形势将更为严峻的产业，约占劳动力总量的55%。

The ISM non-manufacturing index tends to track retail sales, with a couple of months' lag, notes High Frequency Economics. Spending is looking less bad, as year-on-year comparisons improve, but retail sales growth remains negative. Still, if an improving trend continues, this service sector dip should prove temporary. But America's paper-pushers and life-coaches face two problems. First, because services mostly operate in the non-traded sector, they receive little help from a depreciating dollar. This boost to exporters is a big reason some manufacturers are now recovering.
High Frequency Economics表示，ISM的非制造业活动指数往往跟踪零售数据，存在一两个月的滞后。随着同比数据好转，支出情况已显得不那么糟糕，但零售增长仍为负值。尽管如此，如果好转趋势得以延续，服务业的下滑态势应该是暂时的。但美国的广大文员和人生规划师们面临着两个问题。首先，服务型企业往往在非贸易领域运作，美元贬值对它们没什么帮助。这一出口领域的利好因素，是制造商正恢复元气的一个重要原因。
　　
Second, more difficult to quantify, is history may well show that many service sector jobs were merely the result of decades of debt-funded excess. To be sure, accountants, school teachers and health professionals appear safe. But it is unlikely companies are going to re-hire that assistant diversity coach or deputy editor of the in-house magazine any time soon.
另一个更难量化的问题是，历史很有可能表明，许多服务业就业岗位只是数十年来靠借债过度开支的结果。诚然，会计、学校教师和医护专业人员看起来很安全。但短期内，企业重新聘用哪位多元化助教或内部杂志副主编的可能性不大。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析