iPad火爆反映电脑业的缺陷?

　　Measured by its contribution to Apple's bottom line, the launch of the iPad - with its attendant media frenzy and lines of customers snaking around city blocks and suburban malls - was not a particularly big deal.

　　虽然媒体疯狂追捧，大批拥趸在城市和郊区的商场排队购买，但从其对苹果利润的贡献来看，iPad问世也没什么大不了的。

　　Let's look at the most optimistic scenarios. Even if the initial enthusiasm for the device doesn't wear off. Even if no serious performance or production issues emerge. Even if Apple sells the 6-plus million iPads in 2010 that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have predicted - estimates, we might add, that are considerably higher than the Street's consensus of 3 million to 4 million. Even if the demand for more memory and access to AT&T's network manages to push the average selling price to $650. Even if all those things come to pass, the $3.9 billion revenue stream the iPad would generate in 2010 doesn't mean that much to the $50 billion company Apple has become. Apple can sell $3.9 billion worth of Macs in a single quarter, and nearly twice that in iPhones.

　　我们来看最乐观的局面。纵然消费者对iPad的最初热情不消退。纵然不会出现严重的运行和生产问题。纵然苹果在2010年卖出高盛和摩根士丹利所预计的600多万台——补充一下，这一估计远高于华尔街普遍认为的300万到400万台。纵然升级内存和连入AT&T网络可以成功将销售均价推升至650美元。纵然以上事情都会发生，但2010年iPad最多也只能带来39亿美元的收入，对于总资产500亿美元的苹果算不了什么。苹果一个季度卖出的Mac电脑就达39亿美元，而iPhone的收入几乎是这个的两倍。 

　　But measured almost every other way, the iPad is a very big deal indeed - not just to Apple, but to the whole computer industry. Apple CEO Steve Jobs saw an opportunity to create a third mobile screen - more than a smartphone, less than a laptop - and he seems to have succeeded where everybody else, including Bill Gates, failed. It's probably too early to say whether the device will prove to be a runaway hit like the iPod (250 million sold) and iPhone (45 million) before it, or a upscale niche product like the Macintosh (U.S. PC market share: 7.4%). Die-hard Apple fans could well account for the bulk of the more than 300,000 customers who bought iPads on Saturday. But we do know that it's not another below-the-radar 'hobby' like Apple TV. And more important, we know that Apple still has what it takes to imagine, design, build and deliver on schedule and at an affordable price a jewel-like piece of computer technology that inspires consumer lust.

　　但从其他几乎任何一个角度来考量，iPad又的确意义重大——不仅是对苹果，对整个电脑界都是如此。苹果首席执行官史蒂夫?乔布斯找准机会创造了第三种移动设备——介乎智能手机和笔记本电脑之间——他似乎在别人（包括比尔?盖茨）都失败的地方去取得了成功。iPad最终是否会延续iPod（已卖出2.5亿台）和iPhone（已卖出4500万台）的辉煌，是否是Macintosh电脑（美国个人电脑市场占有率为7.4%）一样的精品，现在定论还为时尚早。在周六购买iPad的30万人中，可能大多数都是苹果的铁杆粉丝。但我们确信，iPad不会是另一个像Apple TV一样的“业余爱好”产品。而且更重要的是，我们知道苹果依然有想象力，有设计水准，并能按计划生产和推出让消费者垂涎的高品质电脑产品，而且价格却不会让人望而却步。