微薄用户心情指数竟可预测股市行情

　　The general mood among Twitter users can predict the rise and fall of the stock market almost a week in advance, a new study has found. A computer scientist in the US has discovered that the correlation between the Dow Jones and the collective public mood was almost 90 per cent accurate.
　　在股市里摸爬滚打了N年的股民们万万也没有想到，预知股市究竟是“牛市”还是“熊市”提前一周查看微薄用户的心情曲线图便知。近日，科学家把道琼斯指数与大众心情曲线相互关联，惊喜地发现他们之间的相似率（股市曲线与大众心情曲线）竟高达90%。

　　The link raises the startling possibility that stockbrokers may one day be able to make bets on the stock market based purely on how people are feeling on Twitter and blogs.

　　这项调查让股民们欣喜若狂，莫非是“买进”还是“买出”再也不是盲目的赌博了，在做决定之前上微薄查查看身边的朋友近期心情到底如何就可以？

　　'What we found was an accuracy of 87.6 percent in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average,' IU Associate Professor of Informatics Johan Bollen said.

　　教授Johan Bollen 说，民众的心情高低起伏有预测道琼斯工业指数的能力，最确切的两者相似率竟高达87.6%。

　　Earlier studies had found that blogs can be used to gauge the public mood. The theory was also being tested during a period of intense financial instability which mean that stock market fluctuations were far more dramatic than normal.‘This was probably one of the most difficult periods to predict,” Bollen told the magazine. ‘We had a presidential election, we had what looked to be financial Armageddon, we had the start of what has been the deepest and greatest recession since the 1930s.

　　研究心情指数的工作小组还发现，普通的博客也可以“捕获”大众的心情。这项研究还将继续应用测试于“股市起伏不定的状况”，从而进一步证实理论的可能性。有专家称，测试“股市震荡状况”也许是难度最高的，我们打算“参考历史”研究总统竞选时期、或者经济1930年最低谷时期看看是否与我们的论证相符合。

　　‘If our algorithm was able to predict Dow Jones Industrial Average in that period, we figured that may establish some kind of lower baseline. It could do a lot better in other periods of time.’

　　如果实验能证明我们的“运算方法”能准确预测道琼斯工业指数的话，我们想，我们就可以计算出“股市最低时期”的基线数值，经济操作就可以更方便运行了。