教你打败巴菲特 自己做股神

　　可以用E.F. Hutton证券公司那句著名的广告语来形容沃伦．巴菲特(Warren Buffett)：当他开口说话时，人们总是洗耳恭听。

　　Warren Buffett is like the old commercial for E.F. Hutton. When he talks, people listen。

　　当他呼吁调高对富人的税收时，听众可能同意，也可能不同意。但他总能引起人们的关注。

　　When he calls for higher taxes on the rich, they may agree or not. But he gets their attention。

　　当他警告说衍生产品是金融业的大规模杀伤性武器时，人们会予以关注，但只是暂时的……然后就会忘得一干二净，直到衍生产品在数年后让经济崩溃。

　　When he warns that derivatives are weapons of financial mass destruction, they pay attention, briefly ... then forget all about it, until the derivatives blow up the economy a few years later。

　　当巴菲特像上月那样向美国银行(Bank of America)注资50亿美元时，他可以凭借一己之力引发股票的上扬行情，改变这只陷入困境的银行股的人气，甚至可能改变人们对整个经济的看法。

　　And when he steps in to write a $5 billion check to Bank of America, as he did last month, he can single-handedly spark a rally and a change of sentiment toward the beleaguered bank -- and maybe even the economy。

　　巴菲特先生拥有这种影响力并不奇怪。当华尔街的其他人都在犯错的时候，他总能保持正确。足以证明这一点是：完全凭借投资，他积累了大约500亿美元财富。

　　It's no mystery why Mr. Buffett has this kind of clout. He has made a career of being right when the rest of Wall Street was being wrong. And he has amassed an estimated $50 billion fortune, all of it from investing, to prove it。

　　但是，这可不是在观看体育比赛。你大可不必坐在看台上，目瞪口呆地盯着别人的战绩。你也许无法积累500亿美元的财富，但有许多方法可以让你成为自己的沃伦．巴菲特。

　　But this isn't like watching a sporting event. You don't just have to sit in the stands and gape at the exploits of others. You may not be able to build a $50 billion fortune, but there are plenty of ways you can be your own Warren Buffett。

　　1.还清你的信用卡欠款。

　　这可不是一句玩笑话。巴菲特的财富是多年稳步积累的成果。自20世纪60年代中期以来，他的伯克希尔口哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)每股账面价值的平均年增长率约为20%，考虑通货膨胀因素后约为16%。今天，大多数信用卡收取的利率都达到或超过这个水平，而且你要用税后收入来偿还利息。但是，有无数人还是继续每个月保持信用卡欠款。这意味着向你提供贷款的银行每个月从你这里赚取了相当于巴菲特水平的回报率。

　　Pay off your credit cards。

　　No kidding. Mr. Buffett's wealth is a triumph of steady compounding over many years. Since the mid-1960s, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown its book value per share by an average of about 20% a year -- or 16% a year after counting inflation.Today, most credit cards charge that, or more -- and you're paying the interest with after-tax dollars. But millions of people continue to carry a balance each month. That means your lender is earning Buffett-style returns -- from you!

　　2.充分利用公司的401(k)

　　养老金对等缴费计划。你的雇主每年根据你的缴费金额为你缴纳等额的养老金吗？即使不考虑减税额或投资回报，这种等额缴纳的养老金也能为你存入401(k)账户的资金带来100%的回报率。巴菲特先生，来打败我们吧！你那20%的回报率还差得远呢。真是令人难以置信，但许多员工就是白白错失了这么高的回报。

　　Take your company's 401(k) match。

　　Does your employer offer to match the first dollars you pay into your 401(k) each year? Matching dollars offer you a 100% return on the money you put in -- even before counting the tax break or the investment returns.Beat that, Mr. Buffett! His 20% doesn't even come close. Hard to believe, but many workers still pass this up。

　　3.获得一笔30年的按揭贷款。

　　你可以借到一笔利率为4.1%的30年期固定利率房屋贷款。这可是很划算的交易。今年夏天，伯克希尔．哈撒韦的一家子公司借了8亿美元，期限为30年，利率大约为5%。

　　Get a 30-year mortgage。

　　You can get a fixed-rate, 30-year home loan with an interest rate of 4.1%. That's a deal. This summer a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary borrowed $800 million for 30 years. The rate: around 5%。

　　4.购买康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)的股票。

　　石油巨头康菲公司目前的股价为每股67美元。巴菲特当年是以每股70美元的价格收购了该公司价值20亿美元的股权。他承认自己在2008年石油行业繁盛时期及股市崩盘前买进这些股票是犯了个大错。然而，他一直持有这些头寸。现在，康菲公司的股票估值看起来很便宜，仅相当于未来12个月预测收益的8倍，股息收益率近4%。

　　Buy ConocoPhillips stock。

　　Oil giant ConocoPhillips is trading at $67 a share. Mr. Buffett paid $70 a share for his $2 billion stake. He has admitted to making a blunder by loading up on this stock during the 2008 oil boom, and just before the stock-market crash. Still, he has held on to most of his position. Conoco today looks cheap at eight times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, with a near-4% dividend yield。

　　5.购买赛诺菲的股票。

　　巴菲特拥有这家法国制药公司大约2%的股权，该公司的产品包括睡眠辅助药物安必恩(Ambien)。他为该公司的每份美国存托凭证支付的价格为40美元。你现在则可以按35美元的价格买入。赛诺菲目前的估值便宜，仅相当于未来12个月预测收益的8倍，股息收益率为3.6%。

　　Buy stock in Sanofi。

　　Mr. Buffett owns about 2% of French drug maker Sanofi, whose products include sleep aid Ambien. He paid the equivalent of $40 per American depositary receipt (the U.S.-traded shares of an overseas company). You can get them for $35. Sanofi trades at a cheap eight times likely earnings over the next 12 months, with a dividend yield of 3.6%。