中国有望成为全球最大黄金市场

India has for decades been the world's largest gold market, but in the final quarter of 2011 demand tumbled by almost half from a year earlier as a collapse in the value of the rupee made gold more expensive for Indian buyers.

几十年来，印度一直是全球最大的黄金市场，但去年第四季度印度黄金需求同比下降近一半，主要原因是卢比贬值，导致黄金对印度买家来说变得更为昂贵。

"It is likely that China will emerge as the largest gold market in the world for the first time in 2012," said Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the WGC, a lobby group for the gold mining industry.

“2012年，中国很可能会首次成为世界最大的黄金市场。”世界黄金协会投资部董事总经理郭博思(Marcus Grubb)表示。该协会是黄金开采行业的游说组织。

Thursday's prediction comes after a surge in Chinese gold demand last year, with imports from Hong Kong — a proxy for overall import demand — more than tripling from 2010. In the second half of the year, as Indian demand waned, China edged ahead as the world's top consumer, according to data from GFMS, the consultancy, that were published by the WGC on Thursday.

去年中国内地的黄金需求大幅增长，从香港进口的黄金数量（总体进口需求的晴雨表）比2010年增长两倍以上。根据咨询机构——黄金矿业服务有限公司(GFMS)的数据，去年下半年，随着印度黄金需求减弱，中国一跃成为全球最大的黄金消费国。这些数据由世界黄金协会在周四发布。

China has become an increasingly important driver of the gold price, with large purchases propping up prices late last year as western investors were selling.

中国已成为左右金价的一大因素，重要性日益上升。去年底，在西方投资者纷纷减持之际，来自中国的大量买盘对金价形成了支撑。

On Wednesday night, gold was trading at $1,726 a troy ounce, up 13.5 per cent from a late December low but still 10 per cent below the nominal record high of $1,920 set in September. Paulson and Co, one of the largest hedge fund investors in gold, revealed in a regulatory filing this week that it had sold 45 per cent of its holdings of gold exchange-traded funds in the second half of the year.

周三晚，金价报每盎司1726美元，较去年12月底的低位高出13.5%，但仍比去年9月创下的名义历史新高每盎司1920美元低10%。对冲基金中最大的黄金投资者之一保尔森公司(Paulson and Co)在本周提交监管部门的材料中披露，该公司去年下半年减持了45%的黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）。

Mr Grubb predicted that Chinese consumption would rise this year at pace similar to the 20 per cent increase in 2011. That implies jewellery and investment demand of about 925 tonnes in 2012. On the other hand, he said Indian demand could fall from its level of 933 tonnes in 2011.

郭博思预计，今年中国黄金消费量的增幅将与去年相当。去年增幅为20%。以此计算，2012年中国金饰和黄金投资需求将达925吨左右。另一方面，他表示，今年印度黄金需求可能低于2011年933吨的水平。