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买家重返中国楼市?

2012-03-05来源:FT中文网

On the sandy plains east of Beijing, The World is in trouble. The property development was supposed to bring five continents, in the form of artificial islands, to scrubby farmland near the booming city of Tianjin.
在北京以东的沙质平原上,“星耀五洲”(The World)项目陷于困境。这个房地产开发项目原本要以人工岛的形式,把五大洲搬到繁荣发展的天津附近的贫瘠农地。
Instead, the enormous project, which is about three times the size of New York's Central Park, exemplifies both the excesses and more recent sharp downturn in China's property market.
可到头来,这个占地面积大约是纽约中央公园(Central Park) 3倍的巨大项目,既体现出中国房产市场的过度建设,也突显出该市场近期的急转直下。
Asia and North America's villas and tower blocks are mostly finished, but only about 20 homes out of thousands of units are occupied. And with the developer running out of funds, construction has virtually ground to a halt, leaving Europe, Africa and South America in varying states of underdevelopment.
“亚洲”和“北美洲”大陆上的别墅和高楼已基本完工,但在成千上万套住宅中,只有大约20套有人居住。同时,由于开发商资金拮据,建筑工作已几乎停止,使得“欧洲”、“非洲”和“南美洲”处在不同程度的欠开发阶段。
The World was designed to house 100,000 people, an indoor ski dome, a replica of San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge and a seven-star hotel. Its troubles echo those of another project that goes by the same name — the archipelago of island homes started in Dubai before the global financial crisis.
“星耀五洲”的设计意图是容纳10万居民,提供一个室内滑雪场、一座旧金山金门大桥(Golden Gate Bridge)的复制品,以及一家七星级酒店。该项目的困境与迪拜在全球金融危机爆发前开工的“世界岛”项目遭遇的麻烦如出一辙。
"It's definitely not an ideal time to be in the property business," said a receptionist in the showroom.
“现在肯定不是做房地产生意的理想时机,”展示中心的一名接待人员表示。
The property market is the single most important engine of economic growth in China, making its fate a global concern. Housing prices spiralled in the wake of the global financial crisis when the government launched a huge fiscal stimulus programme to boost the economy.
房地产市场是推动中国经济增长的最重要发动机,这使得该市场的兴衰成为一项全球关切。全球金融危机过后,中国房价一度扶摇直上,当时政府出台了一套巨额财政刺激计划,意在提振经济。
Beijing shifted gears in 2010, turning the screw on speculators to rein in house prices and reckless investment, which officials feared could put the economy at risk. Prices have finally started to fall, and the government wants to see them fall further. However, developers warn that what has been a mild correction could turn into a rout if Beijing does not let up.
北京方面在2010年调整政策,对投机者施加压力,以求抑制房价和盲目投资。官员们担心,楼市过热可能给整体经济带来风险。如今房价终于开始下跌,而政府希望看到房价进一步回落。不过,开发商们警告称,如果北京方面不放松调控力度,迄今的小幅回落可能演变成一场崩盘。
Despite this gloomy prognosis, The World is showing signs of life. After a quiet stretch, buyers have confounded expectations and started to return. One day last month, a few people were in the showroom, surveying a model of the development and talking to agents.
尽管存在这种悲观的展望,但“星耀五洲”正展现出一些生机。与各方的预期相反,经过一段生意清淡的时间后,买家们又开始上门了。上月的某一天,展示中心里有几个人在看项目模型,并与售楼代理交谈。
A middle-aged woman clutching a Louis Vuitton bag said she and her husband already owned "seven or eight homes" on the southern island of Hainan and were trying to diversify geographically.
拿着一个路易威登(LV)手袋的一名中年女士说,她和丈夫在海南岛已经拥有“七八套住房”,目前正试图从地理上分散投资。
"We heard about this project and wanted to come to see it," said Ms Sun, who declined to give her first name. "We're mainly worried about buying at the right time, before the government loosens policy and prices start rising again."
“我们听说了这个项目,就想过来看一看,”不愿提供全名的孙女士表示。“我们主要关心的是在正确的时机出手购买,赶在政府放松政策、房价再度开始上涨之前。”
The World was not the only complex to benefit — the housing market perked up across China in February. According to local property websites, deals increased 17 per cent month-on-month in Beijing, 24 per cent in the wealthy eastern city of Hangzhou and also climbed at the end of the month in the metropolises of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
“星耀五洲”并不是仅有的一个出现转机的开发项目。2月份中国各地的房地产市场均出现起色。根据中国一些房地产网站的数据,北京的房地产成交量环比增长17%,富裕的华东城市杭州增长24%。接近上月底之际,上海、深圳和广州等大城市的房地产成交量也有所增长。