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买家重返中国楼市?

2012-03-05来源:FT中文网

The rise was partly seasonal, as there were few buyers in January when China came to a standstill for the lunar new year festival.
这种增长在一定程度上是季节性的,因为1月份适逢春节假期,买家偏少。
Yet many like Ms Sun were also betting on something more fundamental: that Beijing would back down in its longstanding tightening campaign, allowing the housing market to soar once more. That expectation fuelled a 20 per cent jump in the shares of the country's biggest developers such as Vanke and Evergrande last month.
但是,许多像孙女士这样的人,也在押注于一些更为根本的动向,即北京方面将放松实行已久的宏观调控,允许楼市再度飙升。这种期望推动万科(Vanke)和恒大(Evergrande)等中国大型开发商的股价上月大涨20%。
But central government has shown no sign of taking its foot off the brake. At every turn, Wen Jiabao, the premier, has reiterated that he still wants to reduce prices to more affordable levels. A few cities, desperate for revenue from land sales, have tried to loosen policy, only to be slapped back into line by Beijing.
但是,中央政府并未显露出放松调控力度的任何迹象。温家宝总理利用每一个机会重申,他仍希望房价回落至更容易承受的水平。几个急于从土地销售获得财政收入的城市,已试图放松政策,结果都被中央政府制止。
Ni Zhengzhen, a contractor at The World with a crew of electricians and plumbers, predicted that the government would soon lose its nerve.
倪峥臻(音译)是“星耀五洲”工地上的一个承包商,手下有一批电工和水管工。他预计,政府很快就将被迫放松政策。
"Our country needs housing construction. It's what drives the economy. They've got to let money back into the sector. We're all suffering and short of cash," he said.
“我们国家需要住房建设。这是经济的推动力。他们必须让资金重返房地产行业。现在大家都在受苦,短缺现金,”他表示。
Pointing to a grey-haired worker in a greatcoat held together by clothes pins, he added: "If there's no money, he won't get paid and will lose his job. The government doesn't want that."
他指着一名头发灰白、身穿一件用晒衣夹夹住的大衣的工人说:“要是没钱,他就拿不到工资,就会失去工作。政府不希望发生这种事。”
While Beijing is worried about high property prices, it is also concerned about the potential for unrest, particularly as the Communist party prepares to change its leadership.
尽管北京方面担心房价偏高,但它也担忧不安定的潜在可能,尤其是在共产党准备进行领导层换届之际。
Mr Ni has already cut his crew from a peak of 200 to about 20. And he has also accepted property as payment — he owns two villas and two apartments in North America.
倪峥臻已将自己手下的队伍从顶峰时的200人精简至大约20人。他还接受了一些房产作为付款,目前他拥有“北美洲”的两座别墅和两套公寓。
Investment in housing directly accounts for about 10 per cent of China's economy. Through its indirect impact on companies from steel mills to fridge makers, it is even more important.
住宅投资在中国经济中占大约10%的直接比重。若计入该行业给从钢厂到冰箱厂带来的间接影响,其重要性更高。
But the highway from The World to downtown Tianjin, a 40km stretch of new towers and construction sites, is a reminder of why the government has been so determined to cool the property market.
但是,从“星耀五洲”到天津市中心的40公里高速公路沿途到处都是新建高楼和建筑工地,这提醒人们中国政府为什么如此坚决地要让楼市降温。
"The situation of housing prices continually increasing and local governments selling more and more of their land to finance their investments?.?.?.?is crazy. This is destroying our economy. No economy can grow like that," said Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor and an adviser to the central bank.
“房价不断上涨、地方政府出售越来越多土地以资助自身投资的局面……是疯狂的。这种局面正在摧毁我们的经济。没有一个经济体能够这样增长,”清华大学(Tsinghua University)教授、中国央行顾问李稻葵表示。
"If it continues, the fundamental health of the country's economy will be in jeopardy."
“如果这种局面持续下去,中国经济的根本健康将陷入危险。”
译者:和风