投资者对黄金前景表示乐观

Paulson & Co. owned 21.8 million shares of SPDR Gold Shares, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, at June 30, an increase of 4.5 million shares from March 31, according to filings. The higher mining and ETF holdings reflect Mr. Paulson's bullish thesis on gold, one he has had since 2009, according to a person close to the fund.
据监管备案文件显示，截至6月30日，Paulson & Co.持有2,180万份黄金交易所买卖基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Shares，较3月31日增加了450万份。据一位了解该基金的人士说，增持矿业及黄金ETF反映出鲍尔森对黄金的看好。自2009年以来鲍尔森一直看好黄金。

Soros Fund Management LLC more than doubled its stake in SPDR Gold Shares over the same period, leaving it with shares worth $137.3 million as of June 30, according to a separate filing. The filings don't indicate how long the shares have been held or whether the stakes have changed since then. A spokesman declined to comment.
另外一份监管备案文件显示，同期Soros Fund Management LLC持有的SPDR Gold Shares份额增加了一倍以上；以6月30日的价格计算，该公司所持份额总值为1.373亿美元。文件中没有披露这些份额已经持有多久，也未透露此后持有量是否发生了变化。该公司发言人不予置评。

Some analysts aren't so optimistic. Credit Suisse recently sliced its 2012 outlook for gold by 5% to $1,680, because of weak demand for physical bullion in India and Southeast Asia. Demand from India and China has weakened in recent months, according to the World Gold Council, a gold-mining industry group. Morgan Stanley also cut its forecast recently.
一些分析人士则没有这么乐观。瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近将其对2012年黄金价格的预期下调了5%，至每金衡盎司1,680美元，原因是印度和东南亚对黄块的需求低迷。据黄金开采行业组织世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)的数据，近几个月，印度和中国的黄金需求减弱。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近也下调了对黄金价格的预期。

Even some who expect prices to rise are moderating their outlooks. Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, a London-based consulting firm, said he has 'scaled back my bullishness,' revising his estimate for gold's peak down from $2,500 to $2,000.
就连一些预计金价会上涨的人士也开始调低对黄金前景的预期。伦敦咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)大宗商品研究负责人杰索普(Julian Jessop)说，自己的乐观预期已经有所收敛，他把自己对金价高点的预期从每金衡盎司2,500美元下调至2,000美元。

Still, he expects gold to hit that lower level by year-end, as the world confronts the possibility that one or more countries may leave Europe's common-currency system. 'When people really start to focus on the prospect of the euro zone breaking up, that's when gold will get a lift,' he said.
尽管如此，由于世界面临着一个或多个国家退出欧元区的可能，他仍预计金价将在年底前触及调低后的预期。他说，只有当人们真正开始重视欧元区解体的这一前景时，才是金价得到提振的时候。

Other analysts are sticking to their bullish price outlooks. In late March, as gold faltered, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reiterated a prior forecast that prices would hit $1,785 over three months. Gold missed that target, but the Wall Street bank hasn't changed the forecast.
其他分析人士则坚持看涨黄金。3月底，虽然金价摇摆不定，高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)重申了此前的预测，即三个月内金价将触及每金衡盎司1,785美元。金价没有涨到高盛预测的水平，但这家华尔街投行并未改变自己的预测。

'Our view is that gold is still underpriced,' David Greely, chief commodities strategist for Goldman, said. 'We still expect gold prices to move
高盛首席大宗商品策略师格里利(David Greely)说，我们认为黄金价格仍然偏低，我们仍预计金价将走高。