中国版"纳斯达克"异军突起

Investors with an appetite for China and volatility would probably enjoy this year's ride on ChiNext China's market for startups and other companies seen as high-growth.
偏好中国和波动性的投资者很可能会喜欢今年中国创业板的表现。创业板是初创企业和其他一些被视为高增长型的公司所在的证券交易市场。

The index, known as China's 'Nasdaq,' has soared a dizzying 52% higher so far this year, while the battered Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 12%.
被称为中国“纳斯达克”的创业板指数开年以来已经实现了眩目的52%的涨幅，而一再受挫的上海证券综合指数(Shanghai Composite Index)则下跌了12%。

Formed in 2009 with just 28 companies, ChiNext is now home to more than 300 companies in electronics, media and other sectors seen as the face of the new, less export-driven China.
中国创业板于2009年问世，首批登陆的公司只有28家。如今，这里有300多家公司，涉及电子产品、传媒及其它被视为代表了降低出口依赖的新中国经济面貌的行业。

While large-cap energy and banking shares have stumbled on the mainland, ChiNext-listed companies have benefited from the emergence this year of new President Xi Jinping, who seems comfortable setting China on a new economic path even if overall growth slows.
在中国内地大盘能源股和银行股暴跌之时，创业板上市的公司却因今年习近平任中国国家主席而获益。习主席似乎乐意看到中国经济走上一条新路，甚至不惜总体增速放缓。

But with soaring stock prices come questionable valuations. ChiNext stocks are trading at an average 44 times earnings, versus just 10 times in Shanghai, raising the usual selloff calls from strategists.
但随着股价飙升，创业板公司的估值水平受到质疑。这些公司的股票平均市盈率为44倍，而上海证券交易所的平均市盈率只有10倍，引发了策略师们如常的抛售建议。

'Some of the stocks are expensive for a reason,' said Hao Hong, managing director for research at Bank of Communications International, noting that some ChiNext companies have strong growth prospects and can grow without much capital expenditure. 'Valuation wise, I think it's bubble-ish.'
交银国际(Bank of Communications International)负责研究部的董事总经理洪灏说，有些股票贵有贵的道理。他指出，创业板一些公司有很强劲的增长前景，不用太多资本支出就可实现增长。他说，在估值方面，其认为有泡沫。

Macquarie strategist Jiong Shiao echoed those concerns in a note to clients last week, warning that the rush to Chinese small caps has left risk at 'uNPRecedented' high levels.
麦格理(Macquarie)策略师邵炯在上周发给客户的一份报告中也表达了同样的担心，警告说蜂拥抢购中国小盘股使风险处于空前的高位。

Selling pressure is apt to increase over the next couple of months as ChiNext approaches the peak season for restricted stock selling, Shiao noted.
邵炯指出，随着中国创业板迎来限售股解禁抛售的高峰，未来几个月的抛售压力势将增加。

He added that new issues could start flooding the market soon if the mainland lifts its current moratorium on IPOs, as expected. Roughly 75% of IPO candidates plan to list on ChiNext or Shenzen's small and medium-sized board, he said.
他还说，若中国内地如外界所料为IPO“松绑”，市场可能很快就开始涌现大量新问题。他说，等待IPO的公司约有75%打算登陆创业板或深圳中小企业板。

Of course, ChiNext is no stranger to a party. Every stock on the board more than doubled on the first day of trading in October 2009, an otherwise bleak time for global markets. The good times were over by December 2010, however, as the index hit a record peak and then shed 35% by June.
当然，创业板并非第一次陷入狂欢。2009年10月创业板开盘首日，每一只股票都上涨了一倍多，而那时正是全球市场黯淡无光的时候。不过好日子到2010年12月便结束了，创业板指数创历史高位后，到去年6月累计下跌了35%。

'There is always a rotation going on in the China market,' Mr. Hong said.
洪灏说，中国股市总是风水轮流转。

While still seeing opportunities on ChiNext, he expects Shanghai will shake off its slump in the second half of the year, drawing money to stocks that due to intense selling are 'so much cheaper' than their peers on ChiNext.
洪灏认为创业板仍有机会，但他预计今年下半年上海证券交易所将走出低迷，因遭到大量抛售而远比创业板更便宜的那些股票将吸引资金。