四大因素可能导致苹果步微软后尘

Apple Inc., welcome to stock-market purgatory.
苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票将在市场上遭受磨难。

That's essentially the view Barclays analysts took Wednesday in downgrading the iPhone and iPad maker to equal weight from overweight. The firm predicts the stock will remain rangebound for at least the next year, and could suffer growing pains similar to the ones software giant Microsoft Corp. experienced when it transitioned into a mature, value stock.
这基本上就是巴克莱(Barclays)分析师周三将苹果公司的评级从增持下调至中性时所持的观点。该行预计，至少在未来一年，苹果的股价都将保持区间波动，而且可能承受越来越大的压力，类似于微软(Microsoft Co.)的股票在向一只成熟的价值股转变时所遭遇的情况。

'Frankly, we just couldn't quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers--nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days,' Barclays wrote to clients. 'As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.'
巴克莱在给客户的报告中写道，坦率说，我们不能仅凭智能手表或智能电视就上调预期，我们也不太相信这些产品可以像新产品在过去那样产生决定性作用；因此，鉴于智能手机市场日趋成熟，我们相信现在是投资者回避的时候。

Apple shares recently fell 1.3% to $530.50. The stock is up about 20% over the past 12 months, although it remains well off its record high above $700 hit in September 2012.
苹果的股价最近下跌了1.3%，至530.50美元。该股在过去12个月上涨了约20%，但仍远低于其在2012年9月创下的逾700美元的纪录高点。

One of the bullish views on Apple in recent months has been the company's relatively cheap valuation compared to its peers. It trades at about 12 times future earnings, according to FactSet, less than the price-to-earnings ratios of Microsoft, Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.
最近几个月，看好苹果股票的观点之一就是该股的估值与同类股相比较为便宜。FactSet的数据显示，苹果的预期市盈率约为12倍，低于微软、谷歌(Google Inc.)和Facebook Inc.。

Barclays isn't convinced. 'We believe the valuation argument is becoming less and less helpful,' the firm said. 'Furthermore, we look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked.'
巴克莱并不认同这种看法。该行称，我们相信估值偏低的说法会越来越没有意义。另外，我们对2000年至2010前后的苹果与微软的估值进行了对比，发现如果符合大数定律且利润率已达到峰值，没有大型科技公司在度过艰难的一两年后能再度表现出众的先例。

Here's a chart overlaying Microsoft's performance from 1998 through the present compared to Apple's performance since 2011.
下面这张图将1998年至今的微软股价表现与2011年至今的苹果股价表现进行了对比。