四大因素可能导致苹果步微软后尘

Barclays offered four similarities between Apple now and Microsoft back then:
巴克莱列举了苹果公司与微软的四点相似之处：

Market Cap: Microsoft's market cap peaked at about $620 billion in 1999. Apple surpassed that mark in August 2012, but shares peaked the next month. 'The point is that the most dominant tech leaders of their era don't necessarily just regroup from these types of peaks and re-assume a new all-time high market cap after a year or two,' Barclays says. 'They may get usurped in the ensuing decade or two. These observations are easier to see in hindsight -- but it shows how hard it is to get to this type of size and stay there, much less regroup -- and rise above it again.'
市值：微软的市值在1999年达到了约6,200亿美元的峰值。苹果的市值在2012年8月超过这一水平，但股价在随后的一个月达到了峰值。巴克莱认为，关键问题是，一个时代最具影响力的科技领导者并不一定会在达到这样的峰值后重整旗鼓，并在一两年后再度创下新的最高市值纪录。该行称，这些企业的地位可能会在随后的一二十年被取代；回顾企业的发展历程会更容易看清这一点，但这也说明一个企业要达到并保持这种状态有多难，更不要说重整旗鼓、再创新高。

The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next year's earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2012. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. 'Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft,' Barclays says.
公司发展过程中的下一个重大事件：目前苹果以下一年预期收益计算的市盈率为12倍，2012年10月份时的市盈率为15.9倍。与之相比，微软2004年的市盈率约为20倍，但此后市盈率下降并基本维持在13至16倍之间。巴克莱指出，一旦市场认定一家公司的主要产品会长期维持缓慢发展，那么即便该公司的收入增长，其市盈率长期维持在较低水平似乎也是一种明显格局，就像微软的情况。

Valuation: 'Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins,' Barclays says. 'Microsoft's operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apple's operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2012, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.'
股票估值：巴克莱表示，苹果与微软的股票估值高峰似乎都有与各自毛利率的高点基本同时出现。在微软的营业利润率处于57%-59%的水平时，其股票估值也处于高点。苹果的营业利润率在2012年第二季度突破39%，其股票估值的高点出现在大约两个季度之后。

Buybacks: 'Both Microsoft and Apple bowed to market pressure to issue dividends and start buybacks -- and it really did not lead to a resurgence in share price,' Barclays says. 'We acknowledge that Apple may have put a 'floor' in its stock at $500 given recent buyback acceleration, but the stock may not outperform from the mid $500s simply due to buybacks.'
股票回购：巴克莱表示，微软和苹果都迫于市场压力派发了股息并开始回购股票，但这并没有导致其股价回升；从苹果最近加快回购速度来看，该公司可能已将股价的“底线”定在500美元，但正是由于回购行动，苹果的股价可能不会大幅高于540-560美元。

In an interview earlier this month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had bought $14 billion of its own shares in the two weeks following its quarterly results. Apple reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might fall from a year ago.
本月早些时候，苹果公司首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)在接受采访时表示，苹果在发布季度财报后的两周内已回购了140亿美元的股票。此前，苹果宣布iPhone销售额的下降幅度高于预期，并警告说当前财季的收入可能低于上年同期。

Apple has bought back more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months, an aggressive push that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has been advocating since he took a position in the company last year.
苹果公司在过去12个月回购了超过400亿美元的股票，这是富豪投资人伊坎(Carl Icahn)去年入股苹果以来一直在倡导的大力度行动。

Still, unless Apple really has a breakthrough product up its sleeve, Barclays sees the company's future looking awfully similar to Microsoft at the turn of the century.
不过，巴克莱认为，除非苹果真的拥有突破性产品，否则该公司的前景看起来与微软在世纪之交时的情况颇为近似。

'We see plenty of evidence to suggest that each product cycle or 'next big thing' will get less and less meaningful. The risk to investors, we believe, is that earnings power ex-buybacks could be flattish stemming from multiple pressures on margins,' Barclays says.
巴克莱表示，我们看到有很多证据表明每一个产品周期或者说“下一个重大事件”的影响力会越来越小。我们认为，投资者面临的风险是，由于利润率面临多重压力，除了回购之外的收益能力可能平平。